Olympic Soccer: Best Bets for Tuesday 7/30/24

The men's soccer tournament at the Paris Olympics continues on Tuesday with the final round of group stage matches.

All teams are coming off a short turnaround as each squad played their opening group match last Wednesday and their second group game this past Saturday.

Olympic Soccer Best Bets

Paraguay vs. Mali

Paraguay Moneyline (+150)

After suffering a 5-0 defeat to Japan in their opening match, Paraguay bounced back with a 4-2 victory over Israel. They sit in second in the group through two matches, and while a draw against Mali gives them a really good shot to advance to the knockout rounds, it doesn't 100% lock in their place -- a win would.

The heavy 5-0 loss to Japan isn't as bad as it might look at first glance. Paraguay played the final 65 minutes with 10 players after Wilder Viera saw red in the 25th minute. Four of Japan's five goals came after that point -- with all four coming after the 60th minute -- so Paraguay put up a decent fight for the first hour despite being a man down for more than half of that time. Paraguay also had three shots on goal in that game, compared to six for Japan, so the 5-0 scoreline is a little misleading.

In the 4-2 triumph against Israel, Paraguay needed two late goals to win, but they dominated the match, taking 38 shots (10 on target) to Israel's 9 (4 on target).

Mali tied with Israel (1-1) and lost to Japan (1-0). Despite playing Japan a lot closer than Paraguay did, Mali are slight underdogs to Paraguay on Tuesday, with Mali at +170 to win.

On paper, Paraguay have more talent. Per Transfer Markt's player values, Paraguay's squad is worth $53.6 million while Mali's comes in at just $10.9 million. Paraguay's Julio Enciso -- who plies his trade at club level for Brighton in the Premier League -- is valued at $22 million, twice as much as Mali's entire roster.

Paraguay can lock in a spot in the quarterfinals with a win, and I think they get that victory.

Ukraine vs. Argentina

Ukraine and Draw Double Chance (+120)

Ukraine have had an interesting first two games as part of what's been a wild Group B -- one where all of Ukraine, Argentina, Morocco and Iraq sit level on three points. All four teams have a chance to move on heading into Tuesday's final group matches.

After a surprising opening-match loss to Iraq (2-1), Ukraine responded with a crucial win over Morocco (2-1). The results probably should have been flipped as Ukraine mostly controlled the loss against Iraq but got outplayed by Morocco.

Against Iraq, Ukraine fell despite taking nearly twice as many shots as Iraq (11-5) and dominating possession (62.4%). Versus Morocco, Ukraine was out-shot 19-14 -- although both sides put 6 shots on target -- while Morocco controlled 65.7% of the possession.

Argentina dropped its opener to Morocco (2-1) but beat Iraq (3-1). They're clearly one of the most talented teams at the tournament, with Transfer Markt rating Argentina's squad value at $247.5 million. Ukraine's roster value is just $30.8 million.

But in spite of the talent gap, I think Ukraine has the ability to put up a fight and get at least a point versus Argentina.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.