Nuggets vs. Rockets Prediction, Odds, Picks, Best Bets for March 11

Nuggets vs. Rockets Game Info

• Date: Wednesday, March 11, 2026
• Time: 10 p.m. ET
• Venue: Ball Arena -- Denver, Colorado
• Coverage: ESPN, SCHN, and ALT

Two of the NBA's best scorers face off when Jamal Murray (11th, 25.4 PPG) and the Denver Nuggets (39-26) host Kevin Durant (10th, 26.1 PPG) and the Houston Rockets (40-24) on Wednesday, March 11, 2026 at 10 p.m. ET on ESPN, SCHN, and ALT. The Nuggets are 7-point favorites. The matchup's point total is 230.5.

Nuggets vs. Rockets Odds & Spread

All NBA betting lines, odds and prop bets are from FanDuel Sportsbook.

Nuggets vs. Rockets Prediction & Pick

All NBA win probability predictions and picks are according to numberFire.
Prediction:

Nuggets vs. Rockets Betting Trends

• The Nuggets have compiled a 36-29-0 record against the spread this season.
• The Rockets have 28 wins against the spread in 64 games this year.
• This season, Nuggets games have hit the over 41 times out of 64 chances.
• Rockets games this year have hit the over 43.8% of the time (28 out of 64 games with a set point total).
• At home, Denver owns a worse record against the spread (14-16-0) compared to its ATS record on the road (22-13-0).
• In terms of over/unders, the Nuggets hit the over less consistently in home games, as they've eclipsed the total 16 times in 30 opportunities this season (53.3%). In away games, they have hit the over 25 times in 35 opportunities (71.4%).
• Houston's winning percentage against the spread at home is .367 (11-19-0). On the road, it is .500 (17-17-0).
• Rockets games have finished above the over/under 33.3% of the time at home (10 of 30), and 52.9% of the time on the road (18 of 34).

Nuggets Leaders

• Nikola Jokic is averaging 28.9 points, 10.3 assists and 12.5 boards.
• Murray is averaging 25.4 points, 7.2 assists and 4.4 rebounds.
• Tim Hardaway Jr. averages 14 points, 2.6 boards and 1.3 assists.
• Bruce Brown is averaging 7.5 points, 4 boards and 2.2 assists. Defensively, he averages 1.1 steals and 0.2 blocked shots.
• Jonas Valanciunas is averaging 8.5 points, 1.2 assists and 5 rebounds.

Rockets Leaders

• Per game, Durant provides the Rockets 26.1 points, 5.5 boards and 4.5 assists. He also averages 0.9 steals and 0.9 blocks.
• Alperen Sengun averages 20.3 points, 9.1 boards and 6.1 assists. He is also draining 50.2% of his shots from the floor.
• Per game, Amen Thompson gives the Rockets 17.7 points, 7.6 rebounds and 5.3 assists, plus 1.5 steals (ninth in league) and 0.6 blocks.
• Jabari Smith Jr.'s numbers on the season are 15.4 points, 6.8 boards and 1.8 assists per contest. He is making 45.4% of his shots from the floor and 36.7% from beyond the arc, with an average of 2.2 triples.
• Reed Sheppard's numbers on the season are 13.5 points, 2.8 rebounds and 3.2 assists per game. He is making 43% of his shots from the floor and 39.4% from beyond the arc, with an average of 2.6 triples.

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