NRFI Bets to Target on Wednesday 4/17/24

The MLB season is an annual marathon that gives us months of daily betting markets to consider.

While traditional player props like home runs and strikeouts remain popular options, one market that's gained steam is betting whether or not no runs will be scored in the first inning -- aka a No Run First Inning (NRFI) bet.

On FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB odds, we can find NRFI odds listed as 1st Inning Over/Under 0.5 Runs odds under each MLB game.

Where can we find value in this unique prop market today?

Please note: lines and projections are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

Best NRFI Prop Bets

Chicago Cubs at Arizona Diamondbacks

Over 1st Inning 0.5 Runs (-128)

We looked at these two teams for a Yes Run First Inning (YRFI) on Tuesday, and while they didn't come through, both starters failed to go five full innings and ultimately combined for 12 earned runs. I'm willing to give these offenses another go this afternoon.

Jordan Wicks has been fantastic with a 29.2% strikeout rate through three starts, but that's about where the good news ends, as he's been knocked around for a 5.68 ERA and has struggled with free passes (12.3% walk rate). While we can point to a .432 BABIP as a sign of bad luck, a 3.94 xFIP and 4.55 xERA aren't enough to scare a Arizona Diamondbacks offense that's begun the year firing on all cylinders.

Arizona has scored in the first inning at a 55.6% rate, which still leads all teams. In the opening inning, they've recorded the MLB's second-best K rate (15.3%) and best FanGraphs hard-hit rate (51.4%). The left-handed Wicks will likely face just one lefty in the first inning, giving the D-backs another potential advantage.

Diamondbacks starter Brandon Pfaadt has been rocked in two of three starts, leaving him with a 6.48 ERA. While ERA estimators suggest he's due for positive regression, home runs appear to be a real issue for him. He's already allowed three home runs, and we saw Pfaadt get destroyed by the long ball in 2023, too, as he coughed up 2.06 HR/9 off a 44.1% fly-ball rate.

The Chicago Cubs haven't put up amazing first-inning numbers due in part to Cody Bellinger starting out slowly, but this is a matchup where one swing of the bat could seal the deal, and there's enough pop in the top half of their lineup to get there.

Los Angeles Angels at Tampa Bay Rays

Under 1st Inning 0.5 Runs (-115)

This matchup is headlined by a pair of starting pitchers off to strong starts plus a pitcher-friendly Tropicana Field, making this an ideal spot to consider a NRFI bet.

Reid Detmers had a mediocre 2023 campaign, but he's been anything but mediocre to begin this season. Through three starts, he's allowed just two earned runs over 17 1/3 innings while posting a stellar 2.35 xFIP, 40.6% strikeout rate, and 16.4% swinging-strike rate. He hasn't allowed any dingers yet, either.

The Tampa Bay Rays project to throw an entire lineup of righties at Detmers tonight, but the southpaw has historically shown a higher K rate against right-handed batters, and that has been the case thus far in 2024 (43.6%). While the Rays were tough on left-handers last year, strikeout rate is one of the first stats to stabilize in a given season, so I'm willing to back Detmers' early-season success.

Similarly, Zack Littell has begun 2024 on a high note, giving up two earned runs through 15 1/3 innings. While his underlying metrics don't jump off the page, he's produced a solid 3.74 xFIP and 23.4% strikeout rate over the three starts. He also has a zero in the home runs column.

What should give us confidence in Littell is that he was excellent in the first inning when given starts in 2023. Over 14 first innings, he put up a 2.06 xFIP and 27.8% strikeout rate while allowing no home runs or walks.

The right-hander did exhibit some reverse splits last season by inducing fewer punchouts in same-handed matchups, which could prove troublesome versus Mike Trout. But if he can get by Trout, we have to like his chances of keeping a clean opening frame.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.