NRFI Bets to Target on Tuesday 7/2/24

Skyler Carlin
Skyler Carlin@skyler_carlin

The MLB season is an annual marathon that gives us months of daily betting markets to consider.

While traditional player props like home runs and strikeouts remain popular options, one market that's gained steam is betting whether or not no runs will be scored in the first inning -- aka a No Run First Inning (NRFI) bet.

On FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB odds, we can find NRFI odds listed as 1st Inning Over/Under 0.5 Runs odds under each MLB game.

Where can we find value in this unique prop market today?

Please note: lines and projections are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

Best NRFI Prop Bets

New York Mets at Washington Nationals

Under 1st Inning 0.5 Runs (-115)

Backing an inexperienced pitcher to help contribute toward a NRFI can be risky, but DJ Herz of the Washington Nationals has been fantastic to begin games. Although it's a small sample size of five starts, Herz has produced a perfect 5-0 NRFI record with a 2.80 xFIP, 0.60 WHIP, and 31.6% strikeout rate in the first inning.

What has helped Herz perform well in the opening frame is the fact he's yet to issue a first-inning walk. Even though the New York Mets excel versus left-handed pitching, Herz is permitting a .198 wOBA and .211 OBP in the first inning while already shutting out the Mets in the first inning of his season debut back on June 4.

While Sean Manaea is producing a middling 4.33 xFIP and 1.13 WHIP in the first frame of games, he has still earned a formidable 13-2 NRFI record. Along with his positive NRFI record, the matchup is ideal for the experienced southpaw on Tuesday.

The Nationals are registering the second-worst wOBA (.245), worst wRC+ (56), and worst ISO (.086) in the first inning this season. Additionally, Washington is logging the third-worst wOBA (.283), third-worst wRC+ (81), and second-worst ISO (.109) against left-handed pitching.

San Francisco Giants at Atlanta Braves

Under 1st Inning 0.5 Runs (-115)

Another game where we're placing confidence in an inexperienced pitcher is the impending matchup between the San Francisco Giants and Atlanta Braves. Hayden Birdsong is expected to draw his second start for the Giants, and he pitched a shutout first inning in his season debut versus the Chicago Cubs.

Along with not issuing a free pass in the opening frame, Birdsong didn't surrender a hit in the first inning of his start against the Cubs. Even though there isn't much information to use for Birdsong, the Braves accruing the 10th-worst wOBA (.298), 9th-worst wRC+ (91), 10th-worst ISO (.146), and 7th-highest strikeout rate (25.8%) in the last 14 days, which certainly helps the young pitcher's case.

Meanwhile, Reynaldo Lopez is entering his 15th start of the campaign for the Braves. Lopez boasts a perfect 14-0 NRFI record with the 10th-best xFIP (2.56), 4th-best WHIP (0.64), and 7th-best strikeout rate (36.0%) in the first inning among pitchers with 10-plus starts in 2024.

The Giants are another team that struggles to generate runs in the opening frame, producing the third-worst wOBA (.265), third-worst wRC+ (73), and second-worst ISO (.099) in the first inning of contests.

While Birdsong is a young pitcher who is still getting accustomed to playing above the Double-A level for the first time, this has the makings of a NRFI on Tuesday.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.