MLB

NRFI Bets to Target on Monday 6/3/24

Kenyatta Storin
Kenyatta Storin@KenyattaStorin
NRFI Bets to Target on Monday 6/3/24

The MLB season is an annual marathon that gives us months of daily betting markets to consider.

While traditional player props like home runs and strikeouts remain popular options, one market that's gained steam is betting whether or not no runs will be scored in the first inning -- aka a No Run First Inning (NRFI) bet.

On FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB odds, we can find NRFI odds listed as 1st Inning Over/Under 0.5 Runs odds under each MLB game.

Where can we find value in this unique prop market today?

Please note: lines and projections are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

Best NRFI Prop Bets

New York Mets at Washington Nationals

Under 1st Inning 0.5 Runs (-128)

This game has promising starting pitchers on both sides, and when we throw in one of the league's weakest offenses in the Washington Nationals, we should like our chances of a scoreless first inning.

But we'll first begin with Washington's starter, MacKenzie Gore, who's enjoyed a brilliant 2024 campaign, giving us confidence that he can shut down the New York Mets. The left-hander comes in with a 2.97 xFIP, 29.1% strikeout rate, and 6.9% walk rate, and he's logged a NRFI in 10 of his 11 starts.

While Gore is exhibiting reverse splits this season -- something that hasn't been entirely unusual over his career -- he's still managed a solid 3.61 xFIP in the split, and he's slated to face just one lefty in the top half for the order (Brandon Nimmo).

Overall, the Mets are in the middle of the pack in YRFI rate (27.2%), so they aren't an offense we need to shy away from.

New York's Tylor Megill will be making his fourth start of the season, and early returns have been encouraging. Despite mixed results over his career, he's flashed a 3.28 SIERA and 31.3% K rate in 2024, and he was particularly impressive in his last start, shutting down the Los Angeles Dodgers over seven scoreless innings with nine punchouts.

Even with such a limited sample, that's enough to roll with against a Washington roster that's tied for MLB's worst YRFI rate (13.8%). The Nationals have produced a league-low .234 wOBA and .067 ISO in the opening frame this season.

Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jays

Under 1st Inning 0.5 Runs (-140)

This matchup is tied for the lowest over/under on Monday's slate (7.5), and the strong pitching pairing of Grayson Rodriguez and Kevin Gausman points to a clean first inning.

Gausman got off to a slow start to this campaign after dealing with a shoulder issue in spring training, but after producing a 2.50 xFIP, 30.0% strikeout rate, and 7.3% walk rate in five May starts, it sure looks like the old Gausman is back. He's also now converted a NRFI in eight of his last nine outings.

The right-hander will likely have to deal with left-handed batters in four of the first five slots of the Baltimore Orioles' lineup, and while he's had issues with that handedness this season, his May splits once again show promise (2.26 xFIP and 31.8% K rate versus lefties). Given that Gausman has handled lefty sticks just fine for the majority of his career, we should expect his results to continue to improve. Also, for all of Baltimore's success this season, they're just 20th in YRFI rate (24.6%).

Meanwhile, Rodriguez enters the day with a 3.62 SIERA and 3.79 xERA over nine starts, and he's flashed some nice firepower with a 27.9% strikeout rate and 13.4% swinging-strike rate.

Although he's been shaky in the first inning (55.6% NRFI rate), this is the right matchup for him to get the job done. The Toronto Blue Jays are the team tied for last with the Nats in YRFI rate (13.8%), and they've been even worse over their last 25 games (4.0%). In the opening inning, the Blue Jays have the third-worst wOBA (.257) and fourth-worst ISO (.109).

Cincinnati Reds at Colorado Rockies

Over 1st Inning 0.5 Runs (-136)

It's of little surprise that tonight's Coors Field matchup is rocking the highest over/under (10.5), and we certainly aren't getting the cream of the crop at pitcher in this one.

Ryan Feltner will take the mound for the Colorado Rockies, and he's had a rough go of it in the first inning this season, posting a 36.4% NRFI rate over 11 starts. Overall, Feltner has been knocked around for a 5.46 ERA, and while a 4.25 SIERA would suggest he's deserved better, he has a lackluster 18.6% strikeout rate and doesn't have a noteworthy ground-ball rate (43.0%). Further, Feltner has struggled over his entire Rockies career with a 5.89 ERA across 206 1/3 innings.

The Cincinnati Reds's offense has performed well in the first inning lately with a 32.0% YRFI rate over their last 25 games, a mark that would firmly place them in the top 10 if it were over the full season.

Reds pitcher Andrew Abbott finally experienced some regression in his last start after giving up six earned runs over six innings to the St. Louis Cardinals. More of the same could be coming, as his 3.29 ERA continues to look suspect next to a 4.60 xFIP and 4.52 SIERA, and both his 18.0% K rate and 48.9% fly-ball rate will do him no favors at Coors Field. Despite the low ERA, Abbott has still produced mediocre first-inning results (63.6% NRFI rate), too.

What we should especially like about attacking Abbott is that he's coughed up 1.57 HR/9, which is music to our ears when it comes to nabbing that YRFI. The southpaw has also given up 10 of his 11 dingers to right-handed batters, and there projects to be just one lefty in the entire Rockies lineup. Colorado has put up a fantastic 40.0% YRFI rate at home this year.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.