MLB

NRFI Best Bets to Target on Wednesday 7/10/24

Kenyatta Storin
Kenyatta Storin@KenyattaStorin
NRFI Best Bets to Target on Wednesday 7/10/24

The MLB season is an annual marathon that gives us months of daily betting markets to consider.

While traditional player props like home runs and strikeouts remain popular options, one market that's gained steam is betting whether or not no runs will be scored in the first inning -- aka a No Run First Inning (NRFI) bet.

On FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB odds, we can find NRFI odds listed as 1st Inning Over/Under 0.5 Runs odds under each MLB game.

Where can we find value in this unique prop market today?

Please note: lines and projections are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NRFI Best Bets

Cleveland Guardians at Detroit Tigers

Under 1st Inning 0.5 Runs (-130)

There's some rain in the forecast out in Detroit, but this game is trending toward playing, and the pitching matchup points to a NRFI.

Reese Olson might not have eye-popping metrics, but he's put together a 3.48 xERA, 3.54 xFIP, 22.5% strikeout rate, 7.1% walk rate, and 51.3% ground-ball rate, giving him a solid all-around profile. Best of all, he's a perfect 17 for 17 in NRFIs this year.

The Cleveland Guardians have an above-average YRFI rate (30.0%), but they're 19th in first-inning ISO (.140), and Olson has allowed just five dingers all season. Jose Ramirez is getting only +480 odds for a home run, yet those are the shortest odds in this game, which is a great sign for a NRFI.

Tanner Bibee should be able to hold up his end of the bargain against the Detroit Tigers, as well. Over 18 starts, he's posted a fantastic 3.23 SIERA, 28.4% strikeout rate, and 5.9% walk rate.

While Bibee hasn't been as flawless in the first inning, he's still showing a respectable 72.2% NRFI rate, and the Tigers have secured a YRFI in just 24.0% of the last 25 games. Detroit doesn't have a single player with better than +630 odds to hit a home run tonight.

Washington Nationals at New York Mets

Over 1st Inning 0.5 Runs (-130)

We're seeing hot and humid weather in New York, and the wind is blowing out at close to 20 mph. Add in over-the-hill lefty Patrick Corbin, and the New York Mets alone should be able to cash this YRFI for us.

Corbin might face only one left-handed batter tonight, and that's bad news for a guy who's recorded a 4.64 xFIP, 14.6% strikeout rate, and 1.48 HR/9 versus righties this year.

Shockingly, Corbin has been scored upon in the first inning just twice in 18 starts, but considering he has a 5.28 xFIP the first time through the order, this looks like a stroke of good luck and nothing more.

All of Pete Alonso, J.D. Martinez, and Francisco Lindor are +350 to hit a home run or better tonight, and they should occupy three of the first four slots in the Mets' lineup.

The Washington Nationals continue to be the league's worst team in YRFI rate (15.2%), though they've at least been slightly better over their last 25 contests (20.0%).

But the hitting conditions will give even this team a boost, and right-hander Luis Severino has been a low-strikeout pitcher this season (17.9% K rate). Severino also has a lackluster 4.57 xFIP versus lefties, and five of the first six Washington hitters project to bat left-handed.

Texas Rangers at Los Angeles Angels

Over 1st Inning 0.5 Runs (-106)

The Texas Rangers have the MLB's fifth-best YRFI rate this season (32.6%), and this is an ideal matchup for them to notch another one against right-hander Griffin Canning at attractive odds.

Very little has gone well for Canning in 2024. He comes in with a 4.92 SIERA, 15.8% strikeout rate, and 40.8% ground-ball rate, and his lack of Ks and grounders have contributed to him giving up 1.56 HR/9. Over 18 starts, he's allowed eight first-inning dingers, which is a big reason why he has a poor 44.4% NRFI rate.

As of this writing, Texas number-two hitter Corey Seager is tied for the second-shortest home run odds (+240) on the entire slate, and he'll have the platoon advantage against Canning. Adolis Garcia has hit fifth in the last two games, but he also has pretty strong home run odds (+340) if he gets to the plate in the first inning.

The Los Angeles Angels are below average in YRFI rate (23.1%), and the recent additions of Anthony Rendon and Keston Hiura into the top half of the order are unlikely to move the needle. Still, their matchup versus Michael Lorenzen should give us some optimism.

Lorenzen may have a sparkling 3.21 ERA, but he's a firm regression candidate. Under that ERA lies a 5.09 SIERA, 17.7% strikeout rate, and 11.4% walk rate, and it's not like he's preventing hard contact, either, sitting in the 36th percentile in hard-hit rate and 34th percentile in barrel rate.


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