NRFI Best Bets to Target on Thursday 8/1/24

The MLB season is an annual marathon that gives us months of daily betting markets to consider.

While traditional player props like home runs and strikeouts remain popular options, one market that's gained steam is betting whether or not no runs will be scored in the first inning -- aka a No Run First Inning (NRFI) bet.

On FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB odds, we can find NRFI odds listed as 1st Inning Over/Under 0.5 Runs odds under each MLB game.

Where can we find value in this unique prop market today?

Please note: lines and projections are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NRFI Best Bets

Miami Marlins at Atlanta Braves

Under 1st Inning 0.5 Runs (-113)

The Miami Marlins were already one of the league's least productive offenses in 2024, and trading away Jazz Chisholm, Josh Bell, and Bryan De La Cruz at the deadline figures to make them even weaker. Add in a middle-of-the-pack Atlanta Braves offense and a pair of intriguing starting pitchers, and we have the makings of a NRFI bid.

Veteran Charlie Morton has been solid if unspectacular for the Braves, coming in with a 4.08 xFIP, 23.2% strikeout rate, and 46.3% ground-ball rate over 19 starts. However, despite somewhat mixed results in the first inning (73.7% NRFI rate), he's posted a stronger 3.82 xFIP, 27.4% strikeout rate, and 52.2% ground-ball rate in that sample and has similar marks the first time through the order.

In all, the 40-year-old should have more than enough firepower to handle a watered-down Marlins lineup that was already just 20th in YRFI rate (23.2%).

Top prospect Max Meyer will take the mound for Miami, and early returns have been pretty good over four MLB starts. Meyer enters the day with a 3.83 xFIP, 21.0% K rate, 6.2% walk rate, and 50.0% ground-ball rate, and he's been a perfect 4-for-4 in converting NRFIs.

Atlanta is tied for just 17th in YRFI rate (27.1%) and hasn't bounced back from the loss of Ronald Acuna Jr. among other injuries. As long as Meyer can navigate around the power atop the order -- most notably Marcell Ozuna (+310 to hit a home run) -- we should like his chances against a lineup with the seventh-worst first-inning strikeout rate (26.4%).

Colorado Rockies at Los Angeles Angels

Under 1st Inning 0.5 Runs (-115)

These teams failed to log of NRFI on Wednesday, but considering they combined to score just one run over the first four innings and three the entire game, it feels like we were on the right track. Therefore, we're going back to the well to attack this pair of subpar offenses.

The Colorado Rockies may have been the team to score in the opening frame yesterday, but they still possess a lackluster 22.4% YRFI rate outside of Coors Field. In away first innings, the Rockies have the worst strikeout rate (32.3%), fourth-worst walk rate (5.3%), seventh-worst ISO (.130), and ninth-worst wOBA (.279).

Right-hander Carson Fulmer has split time between the bullpen and rotation for the Los Angeles Angels this season, and he's done a respectable job in both roles, amassing a 4.17 xERA and 4.28 SIERA over 57 1/3 innings. He's also logged a NRFI in all three of his starts.

Fulmer has demonstrated some stark splits, though, sporting a 28.2% K rate in same-handed matchups but seeing that drop to 16.9% versus lefties. While he could see two lefties in the first inning, Charlie Blackmon has an abysmal .274 wOBA and .085 ISO on the road this year, leaving Ryan McMahon as the only real threat. Additionally, if McMahon is batting cleanup, Fulmer would avoid him entirely with a 1-2-3 first inning.

Colorado will roll out Ryan Feltner as their starter, and while he has a Coors-inflated 4.99 ERA, his underlying numbers are similar to Fulmer's with a 4.23 xERA and 4.21 SIERA. He's hovered around the league average for starters in K rate (20.6%) and BB rate (7.6%) and would likely be having more success if he played for another team.

Although Feltner's posted a poor 57.1% NRFI rate over 21 starts, he hasn't been scored upon in six straight first innings on the road. The Angels are tied for 22nd in YRFI rate (22.2%), and no batter has shorter than +440 odds for a home run tonight.

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