NLCS Betting Picks and Player Props to Target: Phillies at Diamondbacks (Game 5)

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Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

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Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacks

Diamondbacks ML (+112)
Under 3.5 Runs in F5 Innings (-104)

The home team has won the first four games of this series. The Arizona Diamondbacks will send -- at least in theory -- their best option to the mound to make it five-for-five tonight.

Zac Gallen has, admittedly, struggled atop the D-Backs rotation this postseason, amassing a 4.97 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) and paltry 16.7% strikeout rate. A bulk of that damage came in a five-run blowup against these same Philadelphia Phillies in Game 1.

You can look at it two ways; he's definitely struggling, but I'm also wondering if a guy who was in the NL Cy Young conversation with a 3.67 SIERA and 26.6% strikeout rate this season returns to equilibrium in his first home start of the postseason. Gallen had a 2.66 xFIP at home this year that bumped to 4.27 on the road, so that would check out with his regular season trend.

He'll need to if Arizona is going to protect their home field. Not only was Zack Wheeler expected to be a top-shelf stud in the postseason this year because of his 3.53 SIERA, he's delivered in emphatic fashion (1.76 SIERA).

As these teams continue to trade barbs in tight games, the handicap really doesn't change much -- nor has the betting line. That's why numberFire's model isn't making an official call here.

Personally, plus money behind the home team with plenty of momentum is a good proposition, but don't be surprised if the Phillies win this series despite dropping all three in the Valley.

With two prolific pitchers in the fold, I believe we can expect another slow start in this ballpark. We have seen just four total first-five-inning runs across the two games in this series in Arizona, and if already assuming a more polished Gallen, Wheeler hasn't surrendered a first-five-inning run in three postseason appearances so far.

Zac Gallen 6+ Strikeouts (+106)

This is another bet backing "The Milkman".

At home this year, Gallen was a whiff machine. He generated a 30.1% strikeout rate at Chase Field, which was a lift from 22.1% away from home. That's probably left value on his strikeout props across the board.

Though Trea Turner and Bryce Harper have sub-20% strikeout rates in the playoffs, the vast majority of the Phillies' lineup will whiff. Their 25.5% strikeout rate in the playoffs as a team is the fourth-highest of the teams that made it.

Gallen threw just 88 pitches in five innings in a "City of Brotherly Love" blowup, so he should have a pretty long leash tonight if things are going well. He also recorded four punchouts in that outing -- his exact total in three playoff starts thus far.

Pitching poorly, we're already in the vicinity of where we need to be for this wager. At plus money, I'll happily back a guy that authored 10.59 K/9 this season in the same building.

Ketel Marte to Score a Run (+110)

Ketel Marte has been on base a lot during a time where baserunners few and far between.

Marte has a .415 OBP this postseason, and he's reached base nine separate times in this series and at least once in every game. He's not lacking in the power department with a .641 SLG -- good for the rare postseason OPS north of 1.000 (1.056).

That's the first requisite to scoring a run, which he's also done in five of the nine games the D-Backs have participated in during the playoffs. Add in that he was 27th in MLB this year in runs (94) despite playing just 149 games, and we're cooking with gas.

This could be an ugly game where runs are manufactured; Marte's ability to get on base with decent speed could prove paramount. He's given a 53.0% implied probability of a run by numberFire's median projections, so I'll happily take plus coin here.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.