NHL Player Prop Bets to Target on Friday 11/17/23
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Please note that betting lines and numberFire's projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Matthew Tkachuk To Score a Goal (+140)
While the Ducks got off to a nice start this season, they were due for some negative regression and that is showing up in a big way.
For the entire season, they are allowing 2.56 Goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations, which is 16th in the league. Seemingly, not too bad, a mid-tier defense. However, if we look at just the past two weeks, that jumps to 3.49 Goals allowed in the same situations, which is the seventh-worst in the league.
They were overperforming and it's time to pay the piper. If the goals are flowing against them, we want to target a player due for some goals and that is Matthew Tkachuk.
This season, Tkachuk has just 3 goals in 16 games, along with 14 assists, and 69 shots on goal. An average of 4.3 shots on goal per game but only 3 goals to show for it sticks out a bit. We've also seen Tkachuk score 40 goals in each of the last two seasons, so we know he's capable of much more.
If we dig into the stats a bit more, we see his Expected Goals Scored up at 7.4, while having just 3 actual goals. He's doing all of the right things in terms of shot volume and high-danger chances, he's just not getting the results.
I'll buy into a player due for some positive regression against a defense clearly on the decline.
JJ Peterka Over 2.5 Shots on Goal (+126)
Thompson is the center on the top line and top power-play for the Sabres, which creates a big hole in their lineup. This is going to change things up for their offense a bit and should allow more chances for JJ Peterka.
Peterka comes in with the third-most (39) shots on goal for the Sabres this season, while skating on the second forward line and first power-play unit. While those roles remain unchanged, what did change is center Dylan Cozens moving from the second forward line to the first to take Thompson's spot.
This means that Casey Mittelstadt is now the center on the second forward line with Peterka.
This is a roundabout way of saying due to Thompson's injury, the forward lines are changing, which should put Peterka in a spot to now be the clear primary shooter on the second forward line with Cozens on the first forward line.
It's a bit all over the place but Peterka is already averaging 2.4 shots on goal per game this season, when he essentially split the shot volume with Cozens. With Cozens on a different line, Peterka can push the offense on the second line and pile up the shots.
The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.