NHL

NHL Daily Fantasy Picks and Helper: Sunday 3/10/24

Austin Swaim
Austin SwaimASwaim3
NHL Daily Fantasy Picks and Helper: Sunday 3/10/24

NHL DFS is similar to MLB in terms of how you build lineups, how you view stacking, and how to value players.

Two main points to always focus on in NHL DFS are what lines the players are on and making sure the goalies you are rostering are confirmed as the starters.

Two of the best resources for that are LeftWingLock.com and DailyFaceOff.com. That is where you can find updated forward and power-play lines for each team, along with which goalies are confirmed as the starters.

Using our projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guide, let's take a look at today's slate to find a goalie, some stacks, and value plays for your NHL DFS lineups on FanDuel.

NHL DFS Picks

Goalie to Target

Connor Ingram, Arizona Coyotes ($8,000)

I'll be entirely honest; none of these goaltenders are appealing process plays in a vacuum.

They're all either facing a top-10 offense in expected goals (xG) per 60 minutes over the past month or have posted negative goals saved above expectation (GSAx) themselves in the same period. Connor Ingram ($8,000) fits the latter at -2.00 GSAx, but there is still reason to believe he can emerge to be the best play.

An opposing Chicago Blackhawks squad definitely helps his case as they sit just 24th in xG per 60 minutes during this period. Plus, it's not like Ingram has been a lost cause all season; he actually still sits ninth in GSAx (15.78) overall because of a strong start.

The Arizona Coyotes netminder is pegged for the most overall FanDuel points (20.3) in FanDuel Research's NHL projections today. I understand his case with Arizona-Chicago exclusively holding the lowest game total (5.5) on the main slate, per the NHL odds at FanDuel.

Stack

New York Islanders

The Anaheim Ducks are the best DFS matchup going right now, so it's hard to avoid targeting them on a three-game slate.

In the past 30 days, Anaheim has allowed the second-most xG per 60 minutes (3.60) behind the San Jose Sharks, but their goalie adds flame to that fire. During the same period, John Gibson has posted -5.62 GSAx, the third-worst mark in the NHL.

Adding insult to injury, the visiting New York Islanders are surging offensively. They're up to 12th in xG per 60 minutes (3.22) over the past month, and they've put arguably all four of their best skaters on the same top line in all ice conditions.

Mathew Barzal ($8,200), Brock Nelson ($7,900), Noah Dobson ($7,600), and Bo Horvat ($7,500) are as good of a four-man stack that you can find without even super punitive salaries to roster.

This slate revolves around the Isles, and while it's not impossible they come up empty, a quiet offensive night would be a stark reversal of recent trends.

Value Skaters

Brent Burns, D, Carolina Hurricanes ($5,800)

NHL daily fantasy revolves around opportunity, offensive efficiency, and talent. I have no idea what's happened to Brent Burns ($5,800) checking off all those boxes.

Burns captains the lead line at even strength and on the power play for a Carolina Hurricanes team that's sixth in xG per 60 minutes in the past month (3.47). That's normally a role that would produce nearly a point per game, but Burns -- despite a decent TOI average -- has just 2 points in his past 13 games.

It's possible a matchup with Dan Vladar of the Calgary Flames can help turn that around. At -4.14 GSAx this season, Vladar has been an underwhelming answer when Calgary needs to spell Jacob Markstrom.

Calgary-Carolina's game total (6.5 goals at +106) is actually the highest on the slate, so I don't mind turning to key pieces in and around my Isles exposure.

Jonathan Huberdeau, W, Calgary Flames ($4,900)

A source of frustration for Calgary's fanbase, Jonathan Huberdeau ($4,900) might finally be showing signs of life in a lost season.

The Huberdude hasn't lived up to his billing since being dealt for Matthew Tkachuk, but he is still getting an opportunity from the Flames on their top even-strength and power-play unit. That's allowed for a 19:02 TOI average in March and a surprise spike in production -- three points in five games.

On a full slate, I wouldn't love targeting the Hurricanes, but it's passable on this short one. They're asking Frederik Andersen, making just his third start since the beginning of November due to injury, to mind the crease on Sunday.

You won't find a sub-$5,000 player often that has this role on an offense leading the league in xG per 60 over the past month (3.84).


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.