NHL Daily Fantasy Picks and Helper: Sunday 12/3/23

NHL DFS is similar to MLB in terms of how you build lineups, how you view stacking, and how to value players.

Two main points to always focus on in NHL DFS are what lines the players are on and making sure the goalies you are rostering are confirmed as the starters.

Two of the best resources for that are LeftWingLock.com and DailyFaceOff.com. That is where you can find updated forward and power-play lines for each team, along with which goalies are confirmed as the starters.

Let's jump in and take a look at today's slate, find a goalie, some stacks, and some value plays for your NHL DFS lineups on FanDuel.

NHL DFS Picks

Goalie to Target

Jeremy Swayman, Boston Bruins ($8,500)

The concern with a goalie in an elite spot on a four-game slate is their overwhelming popularity. Luckily, this slate has two.

I wouldn't blame anyone for turning to Jonathan Quick ($8,600), who has been one of the best goaltenders in the sport this year facing the hapless San Jose Sharks, but San Jose isn't a perfect matchup. For what they lack in goal equity, they also lack in shot volume with a pitiful 49.5 Corsi per 60 minutes.

Jeremy Swayman ($8,500) represents the best of both worlds in what I would classify as the best NHL DFS matchup for a goalie. He's been stellar, posting 8.86 goals saved above expectation (GSAx) in just 12 starts, and the opposing Columbus Blue Jackets fire empty volume consistently. Their 62.4 Corsi per 60 minutes in ninth-best in the NHL, but it's only resulted in 2.87 expected goals per 60 minutes because the chances just aren't dangerous.

numberFire has Swayman projected for 23.5 FanDuel points, which is nearly four clear of Quick and any other goaltender. I'd agree he's easily the best option but might not carry that popularity.

Stacks

New York Rangers

Even opting against their goalie in single-entry formats, I do want a piece of the New York Rangers via their skaters.

The Sharks are allowing a league-high 3.85 expected goals per 60 minutes, and Mackenzie Blackwood (3.30 GSAx) has done a fine but not prohibitive job of trying to correct that. This is still easily the best matchup of any team on the slate.

The Rags are a complicated stack, but the upside of that is reduced popularity attacking different ways. Chris Kreider ($8,300) and Mika Zibanejad ($6,800) skate together on the first line, Artemi Panarin ($10,000) and Vincent Trocheck ($6,200) skate together on the second line, and the quartet are joined on the power play by defenseman Adam Fox ($6,900).

For value plays, Blake Wheeler ($4,200) skates at five-on-five with Kreider and Zibanejad, and Alexis Lafreniere ($5,500) joins Panarin and Trocheck. There are a lot of different options to mix and match.

New York will be popular, but I can't imagine starting anywhere else.

Nashville Predators

There are complications with a Bruins stack in front of Swayman, so I'd peg the Nashville Predators as the second-best stack of the day.

Nashville has shocked the league at 3.48 expected goals per 60 (fourth in the NHL) when projected to be one of the worst offenses, and the Buffalo Sabres are a solid matchup for them. Buffalo allows 3.27 expected goals per 60 (eighth-most in the NHL), and Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen (1.89 GSAx) hasn't been prohibitive in goal.

This stack should be contrarian simply because it does require salary investment. Filip Forsberg ($9,700) and Roman Josi ($7,600) are All-Star Game locks, and the two are joined by Ryan O'Reilly ($6,600) and Gustav Nyquist ($5,100) both at even strength and with a man advantage, so in some ways, this stack is also cleaner than New York's to encompass full correlation.

I wrote this morning that I like Nashville to win this contest; it'll take some offense to do so.

Value Skaters

Casey Mittelstadt, C, Buffalo Sabres ($5,300)

When attempting to keep pace, the Sabres offer this bring-back value option.

Casey Mittelstadt ($5,300) just hasn't quite gotten the salary bump he deserves when he's slotted into Tage Thompson's role for Buffalo on the top even-strength and power-play units alongside Alex Tuch($6,900) and Jeff Skinner ($6,300). He's topped 22:50 TOI in his past two games with five shots and a goal to show for it. The Sabres' depth isn't great, so they'll need to lean on their best guys.

With that said, I don't hate a contrarian stack of Buffalo when Juuse Saros (-3.43 GSAx) just hasn't been himself this year. Blue-liner Rasmus Dahlin ($7,100) joins this trio in both ice conditions to complete it. Full correlation of an okay stack is better than mediocre correlation of a supreme stack. Guessing which players score relative to salary is nearly impossible.

Mittelstadt is projected for 12.0 FanDuel points on Sunday. He works in any format.

Jake DeBrusk, W, Boston Bruins ($4,800)

Of course, I buried the lede with saving the Bruins' offense for this point. While many will target Columbus with them on this slate, that's been a dicey proposition all year.

That's because of Elvis Merzlikins. Merzlikins is 19th of 74 qualifying goaltenders in GSAx (6.21) in a bounce-back campaign after being dead last in the league a year ago. Boston's top wingers come with supremely high salaries into such a quality goaltender. I prefer just taking value pieces and spending in better matchups.

Jake DeBrusk ($4,800) is absolutely one of those. He plays at even strength with David Pastrnak ($10,200), which will increase your point potential in a hurry. He's responded with four points in seven games since the promotion.

DeBrusk is relegated to the second power-play unit, but he does seen man-advantage time with Charlie Coyle ($6,300), Hampus Lindholm ($4,000), and Morgan Geekie ($3,800). That's likely the low-risk unit I'd turn to if getting to the B's in tournaments today.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.