NHL

NHL Daily Fantasy Picks and Helper: Saturday 3/9/24

Austin Swaim
Austin SwaimASwaim3
NHL Daily Fantasy Picks and Helper: Saturday 3/9/24

NHL DFS is similar to MLB in terms of how you build lineups, how you view stacking, and how to value players.

Two main points to always focus on in NHL DFS are what lines the players are on and making sure the goalies you are rostering are confirmed as the starters.

Two of the best resources for that are LeftWingLock.com and DailyFaceOff.com. That is where you can find updated forward and power-play lines for each team, along with which goalies are confirmed as the starters.

Using our projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guide, let's take a look at today's slate to find a goalie, some stacks, and value plays for your NHL DFS lineups on FanDuel.

NHL DFS Picks

Goalie to Target

Cam Talbot, Los Angeles Kings ($7,600)

This tricky DFS slate may not need ultimate salary savings in goal, but Cam Talbot ($7,600) could provide them.

The Los Angeles Kings' netminder has had a rollercoaster of a 2023-24 campaign, but we can support him at an apex now. Talbot has posted 5.90 goals saved above expectation (GSAx) in the past 30 days -- eighth-most in the NHL.

His matchup tonight isn't as bad as you'd think; though the Dallas Stars are fourth in expected goals (xG) per 60 minutes in the same period (3.46), they're on a back-to-back after last night's 5-2 win against the Anaheim Ducks.

Dallas' might creates some risk, but their shot volume also creates upside. Wielding that double-edged sword, FanDuel Research's NHL projections peg Talbot at the top value play at goalie tonight, expecting him to finish with 20.3 FanDuel points.

Igor Shesterkin ($8,400), leading the NHL in GSAx for the New York Rangers over the past month, is an obvious option in cash games against the lowly St. Louis Blues, but I wanted to highlight Talbot as a value alternative, too.

Stacks

Ottawa Senators

The fleeting San Jose Sharks seem to get more sad by the second, and this trade deadline has -- intentionally -- depleted their goaltending depth chart.

As of now, San Jose is sending out Magnus Chrona, who has already -2.04 GSAx in two appearances. The 23-year-old rookie certainly wasn't handed a rookie's job, manning the net for the team allowing the second-most xG per 60 minutes over the past month (3.71). The Sharks will struggle to keep pucks out of the crease the remainder of the season.

That's especially true facing the Ottawa Senators, who are 12th in xG per 60 (3.27) in the same period. Ottawa's correlation isn't perfect, but their scoring expectation can't be ignored.

In my opinion, Ottawa's top-two scorers, Brady Tkachuk ($8,000) and Shane Pinto ($6,700), now play together on the top line in all ice conditions. They're supported by Tim Stutzle ($7,000), Claude Giroux ($6,400), and Jakob Chychrun ($5,600) come scoring time on the power play to round out the stack.

Most of all, Ottawa doesn't command a ton of salary in this pristine matchup, pairing well with Shesterkin. They're clearly in the best spot on the slate.

Toronto Maple Leafs

In some shape or fashion, the Toronto Maple Leafs have to be undervalued after a pair of 4-1 drubbings at the hands of the Boston Bruins within the last week.

I'm forecasting tonight for them to get rolling again -- even on the road. They're visiting the Montreal Canadiens, who shipped off goalie Jake Allen yesterday. That'll leave Sam Montembeault (1.12 GSAx in the past 30 days) in front of the league's 10th-worst defense over the past month (3.26 xG allowed per 60).

Luckily, Toronto is also a spot to spend some salary should you want to be different and go with Talbot. The NHL's leading scorer is Auston Matthews ($10,200), who is joined by familiar friends Mitchell Marner ($8,500) and Morgan Rielly ($6,400) on the top line in all ice conditions. At 5-on-4, William Nylander ($9,600) and John Tavares ($7,100) bring their scoring punch to the trio.

At 3.37 xG per 60 minutes over the past month (8th in the NHL), the Leafs are still skating well. Matchups have muted their production long enough that they may sneak under the radar tonight.

Value Skaters

Tyson Foerster, W, Philadelphia Flyers ($4,600)

The fall of Andrei Vasilevskiy is one of the most shocking stories of this season.

The former Vezina winner currently sits dead last in hockey over the last 30 days in GSAx (-8.25), and it's not been behind an ironclad Tampa Bay Lightning defense. Tampa is 12th in xG allowed per 60 over the last month (3.01), but that's not their usual top-five mark from seasons' past.

As a result, the Philadelphia Flyers could post some offense today. In fact, they did just that at home with six goals against Vasy on February 27th. With that in mind, I can't believe Tyson Foerster ($4,600) is so low-salaried.

Foerster sits on Philly's top even-strength and power-play line, posting two points in four games this month. His TOI average (19:18) in the role is even more encouraging.

If the Flyers had more talent, they'd have made the stacking section against a flailing Vasilevskiy. Their former first-rounder can work as a one-off.

Thomas Bordeleau, C, San Jose Sharks ($3,500)

As has been the case a majority of the year, if you're looking toward the Senators, their opponents are usually a worthy stack.

Ottawa just can't get control of their goaltending situation. Joonas Korpisalo has the third-worst GSAx in the league over the past month (-5.94), and most AHL alternatives or efforts to replace him have been worst. Allowing a few markers to this empty Sharks team might be rock bottom, though.

Mikael Granlund ($6,100) and Fabian Zetterlund ($4,900) are the two reliable offensive pieces for San Jose, but they're now expected to be joined by Thomas Bordeleau ($3,500) on the top line. Bordeleau is also projected to play with the second power-play unit.

FDR's projections have Bordeleau in line for 10.2 FanDuel points thanks to his role and matchup. I would agree that his minimum salary is quite the value if you're willing to take the leap that San Jose can score today.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.