NHL

NHL Daily Fantasy Picks and Helper: Saturday 3/16/24

Austin Swaim
Austin SwaimASwaim3
NHL Daily Fantasy Picks and Helper: Saturday 3/16/24

NHL DFS is similar to MLB in terms of how you build lineups, how you view stacking, and how to value players.

Two main points to always focus on in NHL DFS are what lines the players are on and making sure the goalies you are rostering are confirmed as the starters.

Two of the best resources for that are LeftWingLock.com and DailyFaceOff.com. That is where you can find updated forward and power-play lines for each team, along with which goalies are confirmed as the starters.

Using our projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guide, let's take a look at today's slate to find a goalie, some stacks, and value plays for your NHL DFS lineups on FanDuel.

NHL DFS Picks

Goalie to Target

Charlie Lindgren, Washington Capitals ($7,300)

This is quietly a plum spot for Charlie Lindgren ($7,300) despite sitting as a +180 underdog tonight, per the NHL odds at FanDuel.

The Washington Capitals netminder struggled around the All-Star break, but he's found his form in a massive way. Over the past 30 days, Lindgren ranks 8th of 71 qualifying goaltenders in goals saved above expectation (6.14 GSAx).

He's also meeting his opponent, the Vancouver Canucks, at precisely the right time. Vancouver has slid to just 2.69 expected goals (xG) per 60 minutes over the past month of play, which is the fourth-worst mark in the NHL.

FanDuel Research's NHL projections peg Lindgren for 18.1 fantasy points on Saturday, ranking as the fourth-best value among goaltenders. His matchup is significantly easier than the three in front of him, though.

Stacks

Los Angeles Kings

I won't cover this, but the marquee studs from the Colorado Avalanche and Edmonton Oilers' clash -- projected to exceed seven total goals 57.3% of the time by FanDuel Sportsbook -- are obviously the best targets on the slate. They're just salaried like it.

Therefore, we'll need some decent value stacks to work in as many as possible. To me, that starts with the Los Angeles Kings in this contest visiting the Dallas Stars.

Dallas isn't a perfect matchup, allowing the fewest xG per 60 minutes (2.44) in the NHL over the past month. The reason we can target them? Goaltender Jake Oettinger has been letting in cheap tallies left and right; he's posted -9.64 GSAx in this same period (third-worst in hockey).

L.A.'s appeal also comes from getting their best pieces in a clean, four-man stack. Adrian Kempe ($7,300), Anze Kopitar ($6,600), Drew Doughty ($5,800), and Quinton Byfield ($5,700) skate across the Kings' top line in all ice conditions, and the quartet features four of L.A.'s top-six point-getters this season.

Oettinger's struggles have this otherwise under-the-radar stack firmly on my radar.

Montreal Canadiens

It doesn't sound like Jacob Markstrom is due back from injury to the Calgary Flames anytime soon, opening the door to another value stack tonight.

In a world where we just care about tallies, the Flames are a near-identical matchup to the Stars. Despite a solid xG allowed per 60 minutes rate (2.92), Calgary's netminders haven't patrolled the crease with success. Over the past month, Dustin Wolf (-2.20 GSAx) and Dan Vladar (-5.51 GSAx) have been bottom-20 goalies.

Like Los Angeles, the Montreal Canadiens at least come with extremely positive correlation in a decent matchup. Their salaries are just as low, too. We can snag all of Nick Suzuki ($7,400), Cole Caufield ($7,100), Michael Matheson ($6,700), and Juraj Slafkovsky ($5,200) from the Habs' top line in all ice conditions.

These stacks will be my primary building blocks to fit Avs-Oilers studs around as much as possible.

Value Skaters

Mikael Granlund, C, San Jose Sharks ($5,800)

The other game I believe we can pry some offense from is the San Jose Sharks-Columbus Blue Jackets clash.

For as pitiful as the Sharks' offense can be, they'll meet their defensive match today. Columbus is allowing the eighth-most xG per 60 minutes (3.34) over the past 30 days, yet Daniil Tarasov (6.44 GSAx) has been a pleasant surprise stopping pucks in the same period. However, with a -4.25 GSAx for the entire season, I'm not sure how long I trust Tarasov's streak to last.

It baffles me that Mikael Granlund ($5,800) has such a low salary as San Jose's heliocentric offensive force. Granlund has pounded a gigantic TOI role in March (21:46) with an opportunity to accrue stats on both the top power-play and penalty-kill units. He lives on the ice for the Sharks.

Fabian Zetterlund ($4,800) and Calen Addison ($3,700) join the center at 5-on-5 and 5-on-4, which provides another way to accessing Colorado-Edmonton.

Johnny Gaudreau, W, Columbus Blue Jackets ($5,300)

A far more popular way to target that one should be on the Blue Jackets' side.

San Jose has, notoriously, been the worst defense in the sport, and it's been no different allowing 3.74 xG per 60 minutes over the past month (most in the NHL). Rookie goaltender Magnus Chrona (-5.30 GSAx this season) certainly isn't helping matters, either.

Despite a lost season for Columbus, a productive post-All-Star-break stretch from Johnny Gaudreau ($5,300) has to aid optimism for next year. Gaudreau has five points in seven March contests atop the Jackets' lead even-strength and power-play grouping.

"Johnny Hockey" isn't without stacking friends, either. He's joined by Zach Werenski ($7,000), Boone Jenner ($6,200), and Alexander Nylander ($4,900) in all ice conditions, but FDR's projections -- expecting 14.1 FanDuel points -- see him as a value compared to his linemates.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.