NHL Daily Fantasy Picks and Helper: Saturday 12/9/23

NHL DFS is similar to MLB in terms of how you build lineups, how you view stacking, and how to value players.

Two main points to always focus on in NHL DFS are what lines the players are on and making sure the goalies you are rostering are confirmed as the starters.

Two of the best resources for that are LeftWingLock.com and DailyFaceOff.com. That is where you can find updated forward and power-play lines for each team, along with which goalies are confirmed as the starters.

Let's jump in and take a look at today's slate, find a goalie, some stacks, and some value plays for your NHL DFS lineups on FanDuel.

NHL DFS Picks

Goalie to Target

Thatcher Demko, Vancouver Canucks ($8,200)

Some might avoid Thatcher Demko ($8,200) in a tough matchup with the Carolina Hurricanes, but I actually love this spot for DFS purposes even if it won't be one of Demko's easier outings.

Carolina certainly makes goalies work, posting the highest Corsi per 60 minutes (72.9) in the NHL this season. The good part for fantasy? The chances aren't overly dangerous. The Canes are just seventh -- still a good ranking -- in expected goals per 60 (3.35).

With risk comes reward in the form of save points. I trust Demko's current form in this matchup when the Vancouver Canucks are actually favored via numberFire's model. Demko's 12.55 goals saved above expectation (GSAx) are 4th among 75 qualifying goalies. If anyone is up to the task, it's him.

Demko stands out in numberFire's projections with 17.7 FanDuel points. I'll take the over on that mark in this risk-reward matchup.

Stacks

Tampa Bay Lightning

The potent top line of the Tampa Bay Lightning will be the latest to visit the Snake Pit on Saturday, and they can certainly take advantage of the Seattle Kraken's goaltending issues as others have.

Seattle's Philipp Grubauer is 71st in GSAx (-5.00) this season, which is how the over is 14-13 in Seattle's 27 contests despite allowing just 2.98 expected goals per 60 minutes. Grubauer's issues make them a plus matchup.

Especially with the Edmonton Oilers off the slate, Tampa's top line is the A1 stack on the board when not factoring in salary. Nikita Kucherov ($10,400), Brayden Point ($7,700), and Steven Stamkos ($7,600) all play together across the Bolts' lead even-strength and power-play units, joined in all ice situations by veteran blue-liner Victor Hedman ($6,800).

Outside of Kucherov, the salaries aren't really prohibitive, the correlation is excellent, and numberFire's model loves the over in this contest. I'll start building with the Lightning in single-entry tournaments today.

Montreal Canadiens

If we need a value stack to squeeze Tampa Bay in, the Montreal Canadiens could absolutely suffice.

There's nothing daunting about Montreal's matchup with the Buffalo Sabres today. Buffalo is allowing the eighth-most expected goals per 60 minutes (3.30), and backup goaltender Eric Comrie (-2.45 GSAx) hasn't handled the heat well. He's got an ugly .867 save rate on the season so far.

Montreal's offense is a value offense for good reason, amassing just 2.90 expected goals per 60 (seventh-worst in the NHL) to this point. However, not being outlierishly bad, we can turn to them in plus matchups, and their correlation is phenomenal. Cole Caufield ($6,600), Nick Suzuki ($6,500), Juraj Slafkovsky ($3,400), and defenseman Michael Matheson ($7,100) all skate across their top line at 5-on-5 and with a man advantage.

Slafkovsky's near-minimum salary allows easy access to the team's top options in a stellar matchup. We can do far worse.

Value Skaters

Matty Beniers, C, Seattle Kraken ($4,500)

On the other side of the Lightning, the Kraken can help contribute, but they're just brutally difficult to stack. A one-off bring-back option like Matty Beniers ($4,500) might be all we can access.

Beniers plays with Jordan Eberle ($4,500) and Tye Kartye ($3,700) at even strength, but neither join him on the top power-play unit with three of Seattle's best other scorers. The third-year forward leads all forwards in ice time average (18:26) and has 13 points in 27 games, but he's just hard to correlate with other skaters.

The Kraken's franchise player is projected for 10.1 FanDuel points on Saturday. He's got a role I'd like to access despite minimal pairing choices.

Cam York, D, Philadelphia Flyers ($4,200)

Staying ahead of role changes is vital in NHL DFS where ice time is king. For a reason unknown to me, the Philadelphia Flyers have promoted Cam York ($4,200), and we should take notes.

York now occupies the role we've seen from Travis Sanheim ($6,000) all season. York and Sanheim still man Philly's top defense pairing, but it's now York that's on the top power-play unit with the Flyers' top scorers.

He's certainly responded, posting three points in three games this month. York has posted just eight total in 23 games to start the year before the turn of the calendar. Scoring is random; York appears just as well-positioned as Sanheim with his new assignment.

Expecting closer to a $6,000 salary soon, I'll still use him as a one-off when Philadelphia has a decent 2.81-goal implied team total visiting the Colorado Avalanche tonight.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.