NHL Daily Fantasy Picks and Helper: Saturday 11/18/23
NHL DFS is similar to MLB in terms of how you build lineups, how you view stacking, and how to value players.
Two main points to always focus on in NHL DFS are what lines the players are on and making sure the goalies you are rostering are confirmed as the starters.
Two of the best resources for that are LeftWingLock.com and DailyFaceOff.com. That is where you can find updated forward and power-play lines for each team, along with which goalies are confirmed as the starters.
Let's jump in and take a look at today's slate, find a goalie, some stacks, and some value plays for your NHL DFS lineups on FanDuel.
NHL DFS Picks
Goalie to Target
Charlie Lindgren, Washington Capitals ($7,500)
It appears Lindgren has overtaken Darcy Kuemper for the Caps' lead role as he's poised to start his fourth game of seven November contests, and it makes sense why. His 7.00 goals saved above expectation (GSAx) in just four starts are seventh-best in the league, and Kuemper (1.34 GSAx) hasn't been nearly as effective in a larger sample.
It's a nice matchup for Lindgren tonight, too. The Columbus Blue Jackets fire the seventh-most Corsi per 60 minutes (64.8) in the NHL, but they're not very effective chances. They're 13th from the bottom in expected goals per 60 minutes (3.07) despite the high volume of shots.
numberFire's model projects Lindgren for 20.9 FanDuel points (second-most on the slate overall) as a value play. He'll be justified chalk on the main slate.
New York Rangers
Until the New Jersey Devils get settled in goal, we can continue to stack against them.
Both Vitek Vanecek (-4.60 GSAx) and Akira Schmid (-1.43) are bottom-20 goaltenders at present, which is why the Devils have allowed 3.70 goals per 60 minutes -- the third-most in the NHL. The crosstown New York Rangers are probably licking their chops.
New York is a tough stack, but it should also mean that you can easily differentiate lineups using them. Mika Zibanejad ($6,400) and Chris Kreider ($7,500) correlate at even strength and are on the Rags' top power-play unit. They're joined by forwards Artemi Panarin ($9,400) and Vincent Trocheck ($5,200) from the second line, and they might be more desirable duo since they correlate at five-on-five with the point man for this group, Erik Gustafsson ($5,000).
K'Andre Miller ($4,000) also lives on the ice for New York (22:30 TOI average) at a punt-level salary. With options in all salary tiers, find a way to fit in New York entering a sublime matchup.
If the Colorado Avalanche had a league-average goaltender, they'd be tough to stack against. Luckily, that's not the case.
The Avs have allowed 3.05 goals per 60 minutes despite an expected-goals-for average per 60 minutes of 2.68. The reason? Alexandar Georgiev (-4.19 GSAx) has fallen off a cliff after leading the NHL in wins a season ago.
Given Georgiev's struggles, I think Dallas is the second "not so obvious" tournament stack in tournaments tonight with the upside to score. Of course, they're an incredibly easy team to stack, too.
Jason Robertson ($7,900), Joe Pavelski ($7,400), Roope Hintz ($7,200), and Miro Heiskanen ($6,100) all correlate across the Stars' top even-strength and man-advantage units. They're joined on the power play by Jamie Benn ($5,300) if you need a bit of salary relief, but without a marquee stud in the stack, they're actually quite easy to fit in with Lindgren and our pending value plays.
Colorado's name value often scares away DFS players, but nothing is scary about Georgiev and the Avalanche D at the moment.
Pavel Buchnevich, W, St. Louis Blues ($5,100)
I'm not one to target the Los Angeles Kings in DFS regularly, but the 6.5-goal total in L.A. tonight does provide some optimism for scoring.
The 9-3-3 Kings aren't exactly a value plug against Jordan Binnington (9.57 GSAx), but the St. Louis Blues certainly can be. Despite just 2.77 goals per 60 minutes on the year, St. Louis has merited 3.07 expected goals; perhaps the regression begins tonight.
Pavel Buchnevich ($5,100) is a noted value plug from nF's model today. He's projected for 13.5 FanDuel points across the top even-strength and power-play line. Robert Thomas ($6,400) joins him there with Jordan Kyrou ($6,200), Brayden Schenn ($5,600), and blue-liner Torey Krug ($4,500) filling out the man-advantage group.
The Kings allow just 2.69 goals per 60 minutes, so going crazy with a stack here might be overboard, but the value pieces -- such as Buchnevich -- can come through in a decent scoring enviornment.
Dylan Strome, C, Washington Capitals ($5,100)
Like their goaltender, I imagine the Capitals' skaters will also carry some popularity against the 4-9-4 Blue Jackets.
That's totally fair, and it certainly has become a lot easier to access their marquee pieces due to various injuries. While Alex Ovechkin ($7,600) will still command some salary, Tom Wilson ($5,200) and Dylan Strome ($5,100) do not. The trio are joined by defensemen John Carlson ($6,100) in all ice situations.
Strome is projected for 13.5 FanDuel points himself, and he's likely due for the largest uptick due to injury. He logged just 13:35 TOI on Tuesday, but expect that number well north of 18:00 now that he's tasked with centering Ovechkin and Wilson.
The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.