NHL Daily Fantasy Picks and Helper: Saturday 1/6/24

NHL DFS is similar to MLB in terms of how you build lineups, how you view stacking, and how to value players.

Two main points to always focus on in NHL DFS are what lines the players are on and making sure the goalies you are rostering are confirmed as the starters.

Two of the best resources for that are LeftWingLock.com and DailyFaceOff.com. That is where you can find updated forward and power-play lines for each team, along with which goalies are confirmed as the starters.

Let's jump in and take a look at today's slate, find a goalie, some stacks, and some value plays for your NHL DFS lineups on FanDuel.

NHL DFS Picks

Goalie to Target

Martin Jones, Maple Leafs ($8,900)

Sometimes, chalk is chalk for a reason.

I'm always one to save salary or pivot off a goaltending spot that can have variance, but the case for Martin Jones ($8,900) is pretty ironclad entering Saturday's slate. He's now with the Toronto Maple Leafs and set to face his longtime club, the San Jose Sharks.

Since joining the Leafs in December, Jones has posted 8.02 goals saved above expectation (GSAx). That's the eighth-most in the entire NHL since the start of December 2023, so he's playing lights-out on his own.

Of course, San Jose has been a plum spot to target all season. They have posted 52.1 Corsi and 2.49 expected goals per 60 minutes -- both of which are second-worst in the NHL behind the Chicago Blackhawks.

Jones is projected for 20.3 FanDuel points (FDP) on Saturday by numberFire.

Stacks

Edmonton Oilers

I could easily put the Maple Leafs here against the Sharks, but I wanted to give a couple of other options rather than beat a dead horse...or perhaps chondrichthye.

There's an exciting new development with the Edmonton Oilers worth talking about anyway. We can now roster Connor McDavid ($10,300) will full correlation to his linemates in all ice conditions, and that's tremendous news in this excellent matchup.

Tonight's opponent, the Ottawa Senators, have struggled with goaltending all season. At this moment, they're riding with Anton Forsberg (-0.91 GSAx since December 1st) in lieu of Joonas Korpisalo (-7.14), but neither have helped matters a great deal.

McDavid's teammates at even strength and with a man advantage are now Zach Hyman ($9,600), Evan Bouchard ($8,600), and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins ($7,400). If you wanted to be a bit contrarian, the great Leon Draisaitl ($9,800) still joins this group on the power play.

The Oilers are now more like the old Colorado Avalanche with elite production and correlation. They're worth building around in any decent spot.

Nashville Predators

However, Jones and the Oilers together won't work with the salaries, so this value stack might be a bit better.

It's surprising that the Dallas Stars have tumbled so far with their goaltending, but we can take advantage of that with what is likely next-to-no popularity against the former defensive stalwarts. Whether Dallas has sent Jake Oettinger (-4.65 GSAx since 12/1) or Scott Wedgewood (-6.94 GSAx) to the crease lately, they've both gotten torched more often that not.

The Nashville Predators are a worthy choice as their visitors tonight. Nashville has posted the sixth-most expected goals per 60 minutes this season (3.32), but it hasn't trickled to their salaries. Top scorer Filip Forsberg ($9,300) is definitely up there, but Roman Josi ($8,600), Ryan O'Reilly ($6,600), and Gustav Nyquist ($5,900) certainly help squeeze him in with an average salary of about $7,035.

All four play with full correlation in all ice conditions, and they'll fire at a struggling goaltender tonight. When factoring in the acquisition cost, I believe they're the top stack of the night.

Value Skaters

Brent Burns, D, Hurricanes ($5,900)

This might be the last time we get Brent Burns ($5,900) below the value cut-off given his recent hot stretch. It's been a fun ride.

Burns is a future Hall of Famer and is still tasked with the Carolina Hurricanes' lead offensive duties from the blue line when still atop their even-strength and power-play defense pairing. He's already turned in four points in two January games with a 21:39 TOI average.

Tonight, Burns and the Canes draw one of the more favorable matchups in the league at home. The St. Louis Blues are in town and cede the seventh-most expected goals per 60 (3.30), but there used to be an asterisk on stacking against them. Jordan Binnington's hot start to the year in goal has flamed out entirely; he's posted -1.13 GSAx since the start of December.

I considered the Canes as a fully featured stack -- especially when pieces like Andrei Svechnikov ($6,100) and Teuvo Teravainen ($5,100) join Burns on the top unit with forgiving salaries. Do with that what you will.

Juraj Slafkovsky, W, Canadiens ($3,800)

Unfortunately for punt-level value to squeeze in Jones and Edmonton's top pieces, most of the league's cellar-dwellars have brutal matchups on Saturday just like San Jose does.

However, if I was going to turn toward one, I'd look toward the Montreal Canadiens. The New York Rangers' name value is scary, but on paper, they're just not that scary. New York has allowed the 14th-most expected goals per 60 minutes (3.11), and former Vezina Trophy winner Igor Shesterkin has posted a middle-of-the-road 1.50 GSAx in 11 starts since the beginning of last month.

Juraj Slafkovsky ($3,800) was the top pick in the 2022 NHL Draft, and his draft capital has earned him a spot on Montreal's top line at even strength and on the power play. It's absurd his salary is this low with that role, but the production hasn't come for the 19-year-old yet. He has just 7 points in 15 games since the start of December.

Still, he's got the raw talent and role boxes checked and can help us get to more sure commodities. There's minimal risk if we can get toward the red-hot Oilers because of him.

Looking to play some NHL Daily Fantasy? Check out the NHL DFS lobby on FanDuel.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.