NHL Daily Fantasy Picks and Helper: Friday 11/17/23
NHL DFS is similar to MLB in terms of how you build lineups, how you view stacking, and how to value players.
Two main points to always focus on in NHL DFS are what lines the players are on and making sure the goalies you are rostering are confirmed as the starters.
Two of the best resources for that are LeftWingLock.com and DailyFaceOff.com. That is where you can find updated forward and power-play lines for each team, along with which goalies are confirmed as the starters.
Let's jump in and take a look at today's slate, find a goalie, some stacks, and some value plays for your NHL DFS lineups on FanDuel.
NHL DFS Picks
Goalie to Target
Connor Hellebuyck, Winnipeg Jets ($7,000)
With just a two-game slate to pick from tonight, Connor Hellebuyck has the best situation to deliver for DFS lineups.
The 2019-20 Vezina Trophy winner has not been his dominant self yet this season. Over 12 starts for the Winnipeg Jets, Hellebuyck is 7-4-1 with a 2.99 goals against average (GAA) and .894 save percentage -- both of which would be a career-worst if the season ended today. Thankfully for him, it doesn't, and he should be able to turn things around tonight. He also has an unnoteworthy -0.3 goals saved above expectation (GSAx) after having the fourth-best a year ago (33.62).
Still, because of his track record, we're rolling with him tonight against a struggling Buffalo Sabres team that has lost two straight games and totaled just two goals in those losses.
The Sabres are most notably without star Tage Thompson, making their mediocre offense so far this season that much worse. Buffalo has the sixth-worst Corsi For (Total Shot Attempts Created) per 60 minutes (55.56) while averaging just 2.87 Goals For per 60 minutes. Creating offense hasn't been their strong suit after what they accomplished in 2022-23, allowing us to start Hellebuyck with confidence tonight.
Hellebuyck is the top-projected netminder of the slate tonight per numberFire's model; he's expected to finish with 18.2 FanDuel points.
The Florida Panthers are in a position to thrive tonight.
The reigning Eastern Conference champions have been one of the best offensive teams to kick off the 2023-24 season and that should show tonight against the Anaheim Ducks.
Florida is at the top in terms of creating offensive opportunities for themselves. Their 68.62 Corsi For per 60 minutes is ranked second in the NHL -- only trailing the Carolina Hurricanes. However, they only have been able to average 3.11 Goals For per 60 minutes on paper, but with an expected goals per 60 of 3.48, they should be able to find the net and make it count.
They'll be taking on the Ducks and their goaltender John Gibson. Gibson has been tough to crack with a 2.19 GAA and .927 save percentage. Despite that, the Ducks are allowing offenses to skate all over them with a bottom-10 Corsi Against per 60 (65.69). Mixing this with how the Panthers have done offensively makes for the perfect match on today's two-game slate.
Heading into the night, the Panthers have the best implied team total (3.64), per numberFire's heat map.
In terms of who we should look to stack, it all starts with the top-two duos on the first and second line. Sam Reinhart ($10,100) and Aleksander Barkov ($7,900) are the duo to take from that first line while Matthew Tkachuk ($8,200) and Carter Verhaeghe ($7,000) are the second-line pair you're taking. All four play on the first power-play unit of the Panthers. Tkachuk and Verhaeghe are the top two projected skates on the slate, per numberFire.
Troy Terry, W, Anaheim Ducks ($6,200)
Troy Terry is in a position to succeed tonight for the Ducks -- and in daily fantasy.
The Anaheim Ducks are looking for offense, and Terry is one of the main sources of that for them. To start the season, Terry has put together 5 goals, 7 assists, and 12 points over 16 games. He's averaging 2.69 shots per game with an 18:41 time on ice average (TOI).
The winger takes a spot on the top line and power-play for the Ducks, checking off everything you want out of a value and then some. With it being such a small slate, you can go a little higher in salary, making the $6,200 a value for tonight.
numberFire's model projects Terry to finish with 14.8 FanDuel points.
Brandon Montour, D, Florida Panthers ($4,800)
If all goes right, Brandon Montour will be making his season debut tonight and should be in the position to succeed immediately.
Montour was a major part of the Panthers' playoff success last year, recording 8 goals, 5 assists, and 13 points in their Stanley Cup Finals run. He's since been dealing with shoulder surgery that he had in the offseason, delaying his start to the 2023-24 season. Assuming that he's able to suit up, following last year's incredible campaign should be in the cards for him.
The defenseman finished with 16 goals and 57 assists for a career-high 73 points while also averaging a career-high 24:07 time on ice. Assuming that he is active tonight, he should slot into the top power-play for them when he's ready.
Presuming he's in the lineup tonight, he offers great value; numberFire has him projected for 15.7 FanDuel points tonight -- the fourth-most of any skater.
The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.