NHL Betting Picks: Tuesday 10/24/23

The NHL schedule has a loaded 16-game slate tonight as all 32 teams take the ice.

Whether it's moneylines or total goals, there are plenty of ways to bet on the NHL action all season. It's a long 82-game campaign, meaning that the best selections of each night can be very different based on backup goalies coming into play, injuries that add up, and if teams are due for positive or negative swings.

Let's dive into the best bets for tonight.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All NHL betting odds and totals are from the NHL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. All advanced statistics are used from MoneyPuck.com and NaturalStatTrick.com.

Carolina Hurricanes at Tampa Bay Lightning

Lightning ML (+105)

One of the top matchups of the 16-game slate comes via two of the top teams in the Eastern Conference.

The Carolina Hurricanes and Tampa Bay Lightning have been two of the top powerhouses in the NHL over the past few years. Both teams haven't kicked off their years as expected -- the Hurricanes sit at 3-3-0 while the Lightning are at 2-2-2. Despite the similar struggles through six games, the Hurricanes still enter the as the favorites, so we're siding with the Lightning at home.

At +105, that gives Tampa Bay implied odds of 48.8%. However, numberFire's model sees the Lightning taking home the victory with the odds of 61.48%. That is backed up by how they're similar teams on an expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60) basis. The Hurricanes come in with a 3.28 xGF/60 while the Lightning has a 3.23 xGF/60.

Between the pipes will be Antti Raanta and Jonas Johansson. Raanta has had a rough go so far this season, as he's already got a -3.7 goals saved above expectation (GSAx). He's been underperforming, which is good news for the Lightning tonight. Johansson has been good enough, recording a 0.8 GSAx.

This should give the Lightning an overall advantage tonight.

Toronto Maple Leafs at Washington Capitals

Under 6.5 (-102)

Taking the under in a Toronto Maple Leafs game can feel like a trap at times, but in this matchup, it feels like a must.

So far this season, the Washington Capitals have struggled to put the puck in the net. They've scored just six goals in four games, giving them the lowest goals for per 60 minutes (GF/60) in the league at a 1.22 clip. Toronto has a 3.49 GF/60.

Also, in their four games this season, the Capitals' game totals have been under 6.5 goals three times. With their inability to put offense together, it's making this bet all the more appealing.

The goalie play should only add to the unlikelihood of much scoring. The Maple Leafs are scheduled to roll out Joseph Woll. Woll has been strong between the pipes thus far, posting 3.0 GSAx (1.685 GSAx per 60 minutes) in his first two outings.

Darcy Kuemper will start for Washington. He hasn't been his usual self so far this season (-2.2 GSAx), but with the Capitals' expected goals against (3.16 xGA/60) ranking 15th, they should have enough support to limit the Maple Leafs' damage in this game.

numberFire gives the under a 59.33% chance of happening, nearly 10 percentage points higher than the implied probability (50.5%).

St. Louis Blues at Winnipeg Jets

Jets ML (-178)

The St. Louis Blues have kept up their expectations of being one of the league's worst teams this season, giving us confidence to run with the Winnipeg Jets tonight.

St. Louis has been able to stop teams from scoring so far (2.4 GA/60), but they allow a ton of opportunities. The Blues have the fourth-highest Corsi Against (Total Shot Attempts Allowed) per 60 minutes, sitting at 68.88. They've also been unable to score, ranking dead last with a 46.8 Corsi For (Total Shot Attempts Created) per 60 minutes, fourth-to-last at 1.92 GF/60, and second-to-last with a 2.36 xGF/60.

The Jets, on the other hand, have been a bit unlucky to open the season. While they're bottom-three in the league with 4.15 GA/60, they actually have a 3.32 xGA/60, showing that things have not gone their way. Winnipeg does make up for it offensively, totaling a 62.0 Corsi For per 60 minutes and a 3.36 xGF/60. With Connor Hellebuyck in net and looking to get on track, it's easy to favor the Jets all-around in this one.

The -178 odds give the Jets an implied probability of 64.0% to win. numberFire's model believes in Winnipeg all the more, giving them a 72.09% likelihood to walk out with the win.

Looking for more NHL betting opportunities? Check out all of the NHL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.