NHL Betting Picks: Monday 10/30/23

We kick off the week with seven games and some great betting opportunities.

Whether it's moneylines or total goals, there are plenty of ways to bet on the NHL action all season. It's a long 82-game campaign, meaning that the best selections of each night can be very different based on backup goalies coming into play, injuries that add up, and if teams are due for positive or negative swings.

Let's dive into the best bets for tonight.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All NHL betting odds and totals are from the NHL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. All advanced statistics are used from MoneyPuck.com and NaturalStatTrick.com.

NHL Best Bets

Columbus Blue Jackets at Dallas Stars

Dallas -1.5 (-111)

The Dallas Stars have played just six games this season, the fewest in the NHL. They've been off since Thursday, so they should have a rest advantage heading into tonight's game.

The Stars are 4-1-1 in those six games, having only lost to the Toronto Maple Leafs and theVegas Golden Knights. They have been excellent at five-on-five, ranking third in expected goals percentage.

They'll take on the Columbus Blue Jackets at home. Columbus is a .500 points percentage team so far this season, perhaps better than expected. They are 23rd in expected goals percentage and remain without lethal goal scorer Patrik Laine.

Dallas has a significant goaltending edge with Jake Oettinger in net. He's saved 6.33 goals above expected (GSAX) in four games this season after saving 21.65 last season.

Meanwhile, Columbus will be starting Elvis Merzlikins in goal. Elvis hasn't been too bad to start this season, but he was the worst goalie in goals saved above expected last season.

If the Stars are the contender we think they are, covering this spread shouldn't be much of a problem.

According to numberFire's model, the Stars should cover 58.83% of the time. The -111 price suggests they only cover 52.6% of the time, giving us value on this bet.

Florida Panthers at Boston Bruins

Under 6.5 Goals (-124)

In a rematch of last season's first round, the Florida Panthers will take on the Boston Bruins.

Both of these teams look significantly different this season. It's been well-documented that the Bruins are without Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci this year. So far, they are down from 3.67 goals per game last season to 3.25 this season.

They are still an elite defensive team, though. They've allowed just 1.50 goals per game and the sixth-fewest expected goals per 60 minutes.

Whichever goalie Boston uses will probably give us a solid outing. Linus Ullmark saved 38.21 goals above expected last season, and Jeremy Swayman saved 20.99. Swayman has been better this season with 7.58 GSAX, but Ullmark hasn't been bad with 3.85 in four starts.

Florida has scored just 2.86 goals per game this season, and they have played some weak defensive teams like the San Jose Sharks, Seattle Kraken and Vancouver Canucks. Now they will likely have to score above that against one of the best defensive teams in the league to beat this total.

The Panthers are still without Sam Bennett, and it's really affecting their scoring depth. It's tough to see them scoring against a team like Boston.

Laying -124 to take the under in this game is not too large of a price on this game, as most of the signs point to this being a lower-scoring matchup.

Carolina Hurricanes at Philadelphia Flyers

Under 6.5 (-128)

It's not fun to sit back, watch a game, and root for no goals to be scored -- unless you have money on the under.

Betting the under in Carolina Hurricanes' games has not been profitable this season. Their games are averaging 7.56 goals per game.

This is a far cry from last season when their games averaged just 5.76 goals. They have allowed the second-fewest expected goals but the third-most actual goals on a per-60-minute basis. This should regress with even average goaltending. Right now, their .850 team save percentage is the worst in the league.

The only team allowing fewer expected goals per 60 than the 'Canes are the Philadelphia Flyers. They also aren't getting good goaltending, with the eighth-worst team save percentage in the league.

These teams are both shooting above 10% this season -- in the top half of the league -- after being in the bottom six in shooting percentage last season. They are both similar teams to what they were last season, so this jump should regress a bit.

This line seems like a slight overreaction to Carolina games being fairly wild early this season. They've normalized since they came back from their road trip, with three straight games of five goals or fewer.

Last season, this total would probably be six goals, so betting the under is capitalizing on the overreaction.

Looking for more NHL betting opportunities? Check out all of the NHL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.