NHL Betting Picks for Wednesday 11/8/23: Maple Leafs Get On Track

A short three-game slate is set for the NHL tonight.

Whether it's moneylines or total goals, there are plenty of ways to bet on the NHL action all season. It's a long 82-game campaign, meaning that the best selections of each night can be very different based on backup goalies coming into play, injuries that add up, and if teams are due for positive or negative swings.

Let's dive into the best bets for tonight.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All NHL betting odds and totals are from the NHL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. All advanced statistics are used from MoneyPuck.com and NaturalStatTrick.com.

NHL Best Bets

Ottawa Senators at Toronto Maple Leafs

Maple Leafs ML (-172)

The Toronto Maple Leafs feel like they're close to putting it all together to set themselves apart this season -- so we're going with them tonight.

They'll be taking on their Atlantic Division rival Ottawa Senators and have similar numbers to them throughout the first month.

Toronto hasn't been as dominant offensively as it feels like with Auston Matthews leading the NHL with 13 goals. They rank 12th in Corsi For (Total Shot Attempts Created) per 60 minutes (62.27) and 12th in Goals For per 60 minutes (3.34). The Senators are right there, and better -- ranking 15th in Corsi For (60.5) but 3rd in Goals For (3.8).

It's quite similar on the defensive end, as well, with the Maple Leafs ranking 17th in Corsi Against (Total Shot Attempts Allowed) per 60 minutes (60.48) and the Sens coming in at 13th (60.00) with a slightly improved clip.

We're going with the moneyline for the Maple Leafs because of goaltending. The Leafs will roll out Joseph Woll while Ottawa will be starting Anton Forsberg.

Woll has been one of the best in hockey thus far, posting a 2.30 goals against average (GAA) and .930 save percentage through seven starts. He ranks fourth in goals saved above expectation (GSAx) at 7.47.

Forsberg, on the other hand, has a 3.42 GAA and .863 save percentage to go along with a -1.96 GSAx -- the 11th-worst in the NHL.

With such a difference between the pipes, the Maple Leafs should be able to grab the win tonight at home.

numberFire's model gives the Maple Leafs a 72.47% likelihood of earning the victory.

Florida Panthers at Washington Capitals

Capitals +1.5 (-205)

The Florida Panthers and the Washington Capitals are set for a big Metropolitan Division tilt tonight.

Washington has found its form on the ice as of late, winning four of their last five games. After such a slow start to the season, the Capitals have been able to put together better offensive numbers.

They're still averaging a bottom-five 1.87 Goals For, but they have been able to bump up their Corsi For to an 18th-ranked 59.73. They're also averaging 3.50 expected Goals For, which is the seventh-best in the NHL. That's just a tick behind the Panthers' expected Goals For (3.54).

At goalie, Washington will have Darcy Kuemper starting tonight while Sergei Bobrovsky is expected for the Panthers. Kuemper has been solid enough for the Capitals, totaling a 1.49 GSAx with a 2.94 GAA and .899 save percentage. Bobrovsky is a tick better with a 2.68 GAA and .905 save percentage and has not exceeded expectations with just a 0.58 GSAx.

Seeing that the netminders are pretty similar and the expected Goals For are so close, this game should go down to the wire -- giving us confidence that Washington should cover tonight.

There's a 76.64% likelihood of the Capitals covering tonight per numberFire's model.

Looking for more NHL betting opportunities? Check out all of the NHL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.