NHL Betting Picks for Tuesday 12/19/23: Will Vegas Roll Past Carolina?

A big 11-game slate brings us plenty of betting options tonight in the NHL.

Whether it's moneylines or total goals, there are plenty of ways to bet on the NHL action all season. It's a long 82-game campaign, meaning that the best selections of each night can be very different based on backup goalies coming into play, injuries that add up, and if teams are due for positive or negative swings.

Let's dive into the best bets for tonight.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All NHL betting odds and totals are from the NHL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. All advanced statistics are used from MoneyPuck.com and NaturalStatTrick.com.

NHL Best Bets

Vegas Golden Knights at Carolina Hurricanes

Golden Knights Moneyline (+114)

In what is arguably the top game of tonight's slate, the Vegas Golden Knights face off with the Carolina Hurricanes. The Hurricanes have home ice, making them favorites. That leads me to siding with the Golden Knights to earn the victory.

Throughout the first half of the 2023-24 NHL campaign, the Golden Knights have proven to be the best team in the NHL.

Vegas has been as good as anyone, limiting offense for opponents and scoring themselves. Over 32 games, the Golden Knights are holding their opponents to 2.45 Goals Against per 60 minutes -- the third-best mark in the NHL. And they're scoring at a top-10 rate in the NHL, posting 3.34 Goals For per 60 minutes.

Carolina has been around the middle of the league in both respects, whoch is what pushes me to the Golden Knights today. The Hurricanes are averaging 3.16 Goals For and 3.16 Goals Against per 60 minutes -- ranking 14th and 19th, respectively, in each category.

Goaltending should do the rest of the talking here for the Golden Knights. Logan Thompson will be between the pipes for Vegas while the Hurricanes start Pyotr Kochetkov. For Thompson, he's been as good as any top goaltender, and he isn't even the top option for Vegas. In 18 starts, Thompson has a 2.48 goals against average, .911 save percentage, and 7.3 goals saved above expectation.

Kochetkov has been a part of what has been season-long problems for Carolina goalie-wise. While the 2.62 goals against average and .894 save percentage aren't anything to be concerned with -- it's the -3.57 goals save above expectation which signals that trouble is on the horizion.

Everything looks right for Vegas today at plus-money.

Philadelphia Flyers at New Jersey Devils

Flyers +1.5 (-164)

The Philadelphia Flyers have overdelivered this season, and I like their chances against the New Jersey Devils.

Philadelphia doesn't do any one thing great, but they have done enough to put together a 17-10-3 record. The Flyers rank 17th with a 60.13 Corsi For per 60 minutes and 18th with a 60.56 Corsi Against per 60 minutes. What they do best is limiting their opponent from scoring. They're allowing just 2.60 Goals Against per 60 minutes, good for the seventh-lowest mark in the NHL.

The Flyers' scoring struggles haven't limited them much (2.86 Goals For), but they should be able to find solutions against the Devils, who can't keep the puck out of their own net.

New Jersey is allowing the fifth-most Goals Against per 60 minutes (3.5). Add in that they're missing Dougie Hamilton on the backend, and they're in a tough spot. The Devils score at an elite rate (3.46), but against a team like the Flyers, this is a matchup of opposites -- giving me confidence in the Flyers to cover +1.5.

Philadelphia is expected to send out backup netminder Samuel Ersson to do battle with Devils goalie Akira Schmid. Ersson is coming off a 32-save shutout against a good Detroit Red Wings team. That has left his overall marks at 2.57 goals against average and .897 save percentage.

Schmid has allowed three or more goals in three straight starts. He owns a 3.12 goals against average and .897 save percentage -- the big difference from Ersson being that goals against average. If there's an edge to give in net, it sure feels like the Flyers have it.

numberFire's model believes in the Flyers, giving them a 74.0% likelihood to cover tonight compared to the implied probability of 62.4%.

St. Louis Blues at Tampa Bay Lightning

Lightning Moneyline (-178)

No matter what the current records say, the Tampa Bay Lightning are a better team than the St. Louis Blues, and we'll see it tonight.

Both the Lightning and Blues have unremarkable records so far this season. Tampa Bay currently sits at an underwhelming 14-13-5 while the Blues are 15-14-1. And that's where most of the similarities stop.

Tampa Bay are in the middle of the pack with their 60.63 Corsi For per 60 minutes but are averaging 3.25 Goals For per 60 minutes. Defensively, the Lightning limit opponents' chances (58.93 Corsi Against) but do allow the fourth-most Goals Against at a 3.53 clip. With Andrei Vasilevskiy back, you'd have to expect things will turn around soon.

St. Louis just fired coach Craig Berube, and their season hasn't gone as they had hoped or expected.

The Blues rank 24th with a 57.31 Corsi For per 60 minutes and 21st with a 61.85 Corsi Against per 60 minutes. They're allowing 3.25 Goals Against per 60 minutes and are scoring a minimal 2.88 Goals For per 60 minutes -- leaving them 23rd in the NHL.

The top netminders for each unit will start tonight with Jordan Binnington and Vasilveskiy expected. Binnington has been one of the main reasons that the Blues have the record that they do. While his 3.05 goals against average and .908 save percentage don't jump off the page, they're certainly aided by his 8.82 goals saved above expectation. He has allowed three or more goals in four of his last five starts, though, including two games of allowing five.

Vasilevskiy has made 10 starts but hasn't found his usual form as of yet -- delivering a 3.02 goals against average and .897 save percentage. The Lightning will need him to start making things happen, and based on his 53-save performance two games ago, he's getting close.

numberFire's model gives the Lightning a 71.2% chance to earn the win. The -178 moneyline implies odds of just 64.0%.

Looking for more NHL betting opportunities? Check out all of the NHL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.