NHL Betting Picks for Tuesday 11/28/23: Leafs Out for Playoff Revenge Against Panthers

A busy Tuesday in the NHL gives us lots of opportunities to find some bets tonight.

Whether it's moneylines or total goals, there are plenty of ways to bet on the NHL action all season. It's a long 82-game campaign, meaning that the best selections of each night can be very different based on backup goalies coming into play, injuries that add up, and if teams are due for positive or negative swings.

Let's dive into the best bets for tonight.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All NHL betting odds and totals are from the NHL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. All advanced statistics are used from MoneyPuck.com and NaturalStatTrick.com.

NHL Best Bets

New York Islanders at New Jersey Devils

Under 6.5 goals (-128)

The New York Islanders and New Jersey Devils will meet for the second time this season. Their first matchup ended 5-4 in favor of the Devils, but there are reasons to believe that the game won't have that many goals tonight.

The Islanders are averaging the third-fewest goals per game in the league. They are 26th in expected goals and are in the bottom half of the league in scoring-chance rate and shot-attempt rate.

New York has a reputation of being a great defensive team, but it's actually not really the case. They allow the second-most shot attempts per 60 minutes and the fifth-most expected goals (xG) per 60. Luckily, they have the second-best team save percentage, as their goalies have been excellent like they were last season.

The Devils have been basically the opposite. They are fairly free-scoring, with the seventh-most goals per game at 3.53. Somehow, they've allowed more than that, though, as their average goals per game allowed is 3.63.

New Jersey isn't actually a bad defensive team. They have allowed the second-fewest shot attempts per 60 minutes and the third-fewest scoring chances per 60. They haven't gotten the goaltending most of the season but have conceded only four goals in the last two games.

Our model on numberFire likes the under on this game, and it makes sense given what we know about these two teams.

Carolina Hurricanes at Philadelphia Flyers

Under 6.5 Goals (-124)

This is the third meeting between these Metropolitan Division foes, and it's the third time we're going to recommend betting on the under. The previous two games both went under this total, as both of these teams have been solid defensively all season.

The Carolina Hurricanes continue to be an excellent possession team. They are second in xG% at five-on-five and allow the fewest shot attempts per 60 minutes. They haven't been too dangerous offensively, ranking 22nd in high-danger chance rate and 22nd in shooting percentage.

It's surprising how good the Flyers have been defensively. If you look at all situations, they've allowed the fewest xG against per 60 minutes, with Carolina allowing the second-fewest. They don't create many chances, however, with just the 18th-most expected goals for and 19th-most high-danger chances.

These two teams just don't add up to be a matchup that will play back-and-forth games. That's why we can be fairly confident in our bet on the under in this spot.

Florida Panthers at Toronto Maple Leafs

Maple Leafs ML (-142)

When you're at the center of the hockey universe, a lot of things tend to get overblown. The Toronto Maple Leafs have been in crisis mode at some points of this season, according to some media members, when in reality they aren't too far off where they should be.

Toronto is 10-6-3 and in a wild card spot for the playoffs, with fewer games played than every team above them in the standings. Their five-on-five play leaves something to be desired, but with their shooting talent, they should be able to overcome that.

The Leafs will be starting Joseph Woll in net, who has saved 2.25 goals above expected, which makes him Toronto's best goaltender this season. Meanwhile, the Florida Panthers will be with backup Anthony Stolarz, who is a career journeyman goalie.

The reason the Panthers are turning to Stolarz is because they played last night. They had a hard-fought game in which there were several physical confrontations between the teams.

The Leafs are a more talented team than the Panthers on paper, have an edge in the goaltending matchup, and get an opponent that could be worn out after last night's game. That's enough for me to consider betting them at -142.

Our model agrees with this pick, rating Toronto as a two-star bet tonight.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.