NHL Betting Picks for Thursday 3/14/24: Will the Rangers Stay Hot?

A huge 12-game slate of NHL action is set for tonight, providing us with a plethora of betting options to consider.

Whether it's moneylines or total goals, there are plenty of ways to bet on the NHL action all season. It's a long 82-game campaign, meaning that the best selections of each night can be very different based on backup goalies coming into play, injuries that add up, and if teams are due for positive or negative swings.

Let's dive into the best bets for tonight.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All NHL betting odds and totals are from the NHL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. All advanced statistics are used from MoneyPuck.com and NaturalStatTrick.com.

NHL Best Bets

New York Rangers at Tampa Bay Lightning

Rangers ML (-110)

The New York Rangers are rolling, and they should be able to take care of business tonight against the Tampa Bay Lightning.

Over their last 10 games, the Rangers have a record of 7-2-1, winning three straight games. The Lightning, on the other hand, are 4-5-1 in their past 10 and continue to struggle their way to the top wild card seed in the Eastern Conference. These two teams couldn't be further apart in terms of consistency on the ice, and it's why the Rangers are so appealing tonight -- even on the road.

The Rangers are averaging 3.21 expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60) in their last 10 games, which has turned into only 2.88 goals for per 60 minutes (GF/60) -- meaning there's room to improve based on their underlying numbers. Tampa Bay has had better luck and is due for some negative regression as they're scoring 3.16 GF/60 but have generated just xGF/60 of 2.67, which ranks 27th over the last 10 games.

Things are flipped when it comes to defense.

Despite the Rangers' rough-looking 3.47 expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60), no team has kept the puck out of the net more than New York has in these last 10 games, with their 1.59 goals against per 60 minutes (GA/60) in that time highlighting just that. The Lightning are letting up 3.86 GA/60 despite a 2.83 xGA/60.

All in all, there's a reason this game is a pick'em, but given the Rangers' recent run, I'm backing them.

numberFire's model is, too, as it gives the Rangers a 55.61% likelihood to grab the victory. The -110 number implies win odds of just 52.4%.

New Jersey Devils at Dallas Stars

Stars ML (-182)

Speaking of great teams, the Dallas Stars are exactly that, and they're facing a New Jersey Devils squad that continues to fly down the standings.

The Stars have been at the top of the NHL for much of this season, and a big reason has been their offensive output. Dallas ranks 11th with a 3.2 xGF/60, but they've played above that, ranking second in the league with 3.56 GF/60. Defensively, they're keeping teams away from their net with an 11th-best 58.07 Corsi against per 60 minutes (CA/60). That has turned into the second-best xGA/60 with a 2.72 clip.

All of this spells out problems for the Devils -- which is good news for taking the Stars moneyline.

New Jersey hasn't been able to stop their opponents from scoring. It's been that way all season and has been their downfall.

The Devils have a 3.14 xGA/60, which checks in 23rd in the NHL. Ultimately, the Devils are doing even worse than those expected numbers. Teams are racking up lots of goals against New Jersey, as the Devils have let up 3.44 GA/60. If there's any good news, it's that they score 3.24 GF/60, but they should have a tough time on both ends of the ice versus Dallas.

numberFire's model gives the Stars a 73.74% likelihood of winning tonight, an improvement over the 64.5% implied probability at these -182 odds.

Vegas Golden Knights at Calgary Flames

Golden Knights -1.5 (+152)

The Vegas Golden Knights are starting to gain some momentum, which I expect them to carry into tonight's tilt against the Calgary Flames.

Vegas has racked up back-to-back wins -- with the return of Jack Eichel being a big reason why. The struggles of their recent stretch have brought their overall numbers down. They're averaging just 3.16 GF/60 but are still holding their opponents to 2.93 GA/60, which is why there should be so much trust in them tonight.

Calgary has been serviceable when Jacob Markstrom is between the pipes, helping push them to a 3.17 GA/60 -- which isn't all too impressive to begin with. Markstrom, however, won't be in net tonight, and that makes Vegas on the puck line appealing.

The Flames will start 22-year-old netminder Dustin Wolf, who hasn't had it easy since getting back to the NHL. In his last two starts, he's allowed a total of 11 goals. Through seven games, Wolf has a 3.69 goals against average (GAA) and .880 save percentage (SV%). Those are brutal numbers, especially when he will be facing Adin Hill in the opposite crease. Hill has been great for Vegas, sporting a 2.58 GAA and .917 SV%.

With a big advantage in net and being the better team as is, the Golden Knights could win comfortably tonight.

Looking for more NHL betting opportunities? Check out all of the NHL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.