NHL Betting Picks and Player Props to Target: Sunday 12/10/23

Sunday in the NHL during football season is usually quiet, but we've got eight games today with the NBA completely out of action. How can we find value amongst them?

Whether it's moneylines, total goals, or player props, there are plenty of ways to bet on the NHL action all season long. It's a long 82-game season, meaning that the best selections of each night can be very different based on backup goalies coming into play, injuries that add up, and if teams are due for positive or negative swings.

Let's dive into the best bets for tonight.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All NHL betting odds and totals come from FanDuel Sportsbook.

New Jersey Devils at Edmonton Oilers

Tyler Toffoli Anytime Goal (+190)
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins to Record 1+ Assists (-128)

The rare 7.5-goal total in Alberta should make today's matinee affair between the New Jersey Devils and Edmonton Oilers a barnburner. Rather than take a stab at a hefty over, we should just feel comfortable to pluck player props from this game, and these two stood out immediately.

We'll run back Tyler Toffoli to score after he was held off the scorer's sheet yesterday -- largely due to the uncompetitiveness of a 4-1 game. He only logged 17:26 TOI and took two shots in a game where the Devils could sit on a lead. Still, averaging 3.36 shots per game, Toffoli has been held scoreless on 12 shots in four games this month. He's supremely due playing next to point-generating machine Jack Hughes.

On the other side, we'll target a teammate of Connor McDavid. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins joins him in all ice conditions, and the former top pick -- known for his passing -- has been an assist machine for Edmonton. He's produced 18 in just 24 games, which isn't exactly shocking playing around two of the game's best with a man advantage.

numberFire's projections spotted plenty of value here. The model would place Toffoli at +117 to score, and it would place Nugent-Hopkins at -245 (!) to snag an assist in today's high-scoring affair. Both lines come with plenty of value.

Nashville Predators at Montreal Canadiens

Under 6.5 (-115)

I got burned yesterday as the Nashville Predators sat Juuse Saros on the front leg of a back-to-back. With Saros in goal and both of these clubs on tired legs a day later, we can turn to the under in this game.

Saros' -0.37 GSAx in 21 starts is largely a wash, and Nashville's 14th-ranked defense in terms of expected goals per 60 minutes (3.07) is also pretty average. Luckily for them, the Montreal Canadiens have struggled to score all year, mustering just 2.89 expected goals per 60 (seventh-worst in the NHL).

This total should be decided based on the Preds' offensive output, but I'm optimistic for Montreal. Sam Montembeault has had a tremendous year, ranking 26th of 75 qualifying goalies in goals saved above expectation (4.29 GSAx). It would be surprising to see the floodgates open behind him.

numberFire expects 5.80 total goals in this one at a median and expects the under to cash 59.7% of the time.

Washington Capitals at Chicago Blackhawks

Tom Wilson 3+ Shots on Goal (-115)

Like Toffoli earlier, Tom Wilson has had a quiet month of December offensively. That could change tonight.

Wilson, positioned on the Washington Capitals' top even-strength and power-play units, has fired just three totals shots on goal in recent brutal matchups with the New York Rangers and Dallas Stars, but today's matchup should be just fine. The opposing Chicago Blackhawks are allowing the fifth-most Corsi per 60 minutes (63.8), so shots by Washington's forwards should come far easier.

numberFire's projections have Wilson pegged for 3.00 shots exactly at a median, but I don't mind the small bit of juice at -115 when this matchup is so forgiving.

Minnesota Wild at Seattle Kraken

Kraken ML (+110)

In many ways, these two struggling teams are the same. With that said, this specific spot for the Seattle Kraken makes plenty of sense.

This is Minnesota's fourth straight road game through a Canadian trip that'll end in Seattle, and the Kraken -- even on a back-to-back -- are in the midst of a six-game homestand. Typically, you won't find a home team as an underdog in that spot, but Seattle's poor performance has warranted it.

Nonetheless, both of these teams are due for positive regression soon. Seattle's 49.5 expected-goals-for rate (xGF%) is much better than their actual rate (43.5%), and Minnesota's xGF% (51.6%) is also better than their actual rate (46.9%).

In goal, these teams are similar, too. Seattle's Joey Daccord (-3.01 GSAx) and Minnesota's Filip Gustavsson (-3.65 GSAx) have both struggled.

numberFire's historical model is playing the spot, expecting Seattle to win tonight 54.1% of the time. These teams are similar enough to take the plus money with the hosts.

Looking for more NHL betting opportunities? Check out all of the NHL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.