NHL Betting Picks and Player Props to Target: Sunday 11/19/23
Sunday in the NHL during football season is usually quiet, and today is no different with just three games. How can we find value amongst them?
Whether it's moneylines, total goals, or player props, there are plenty of ways to bet on the NHL action all season long. It's a long 82-game season, meaning that the best selections of each night can be very different based on backup goalies coming into play, injuries that add up, and if teams are due for positive or negative swings.
Let's dive into the best bets for tonight.
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All NHL betting odds and totals come from FanDuel Sportsbook.
Columbus Blue Jackets at Philadelphia Flyers
Flyers TT Under 3.5 Goals (-118)
The Columbus Blue Jackets are never a comfortable bet, but at the very least, their goaltending doesn't really drop on a back-to-back.
That's because Spencer Martin has actually accumulated more goals saved above expectation (2.54 GSAx) in 7 starts than their primary starter, Elvis Merzlikins, has in 13 starts (2.09 GSAx). You could argue he should be the primary guy at present.
On the other side of Martin tonight will be the Philadelphia Flyers, who are a pretty soft matchup for an opposing goalie in a vacuum. Philadelphia has posted the 10th-fewest expected goals per 60 minutes (3.02) this season.
I struggled balancing the Jackets' offensive expectations against an elite Flyers D (2.64 expected goals allowed per 60) with Philly's awful goaltender, Samuel Ersson (-5.44 GSAx). In lieu of doing so, I'll just take the Flyers under four total goals.
Vegas Golden Knights at Pittsburgh Penguins
Under 6.5 (-106)
This is the numberFire model's best bet of the day in traditional markets.
I absolutely agree, and it starts with Adin Hill of the Vegas Golden Knights. At 6.55, Hill is 10th of 71 qualifying goaltenders in cumulative GSAx across his 10 starts in goal. It'll be a challenging matchup against a Pittsburgh Penguins team averaging 3.59 expected goals per 60 (third in the NHL), but Pittsburgh did play yesterday in Raleigh and now travels back home. They won't be at 100%.
On the other side, the Knights' offense has been overrated by their 13-3-2 record all season. They're actually scoring the 13th-fewest expected goals per 60 (3.04) in the NHL, and though Magnus Hellberg is Pittsburgh's backup, he could be a welcome shift. He's been solid (1.58 GSAx) this season, and starter Tristan Jarry has allowed eight goals in the last two games.
nF is expecting this game to have fewer than seven total goals 57.3% of the time versus these 52.1% implied odds.
St. Louis Blues at Anaheim Ducks
Ducks -1.5 (+205)
Frank Vatrano 4+ Shots on Goal (+175)
Mason McTavish Anytime Goal (+225)
Tonight could be a lamp-lighting party for the Anaheim Ducks.
In general, the St. Louis Blues aren't typically a candidate with Jordan Binnington (8.33 GSAx) in the fold, but Binnington should rest tonight after a 5-1 battering at the hands of the Los Angeles Kings on Saturday.
With a rest advantage, Anaheim will now get to attack St. Louis' weak defense (3.23 expected goals allowed per 60 minutes) and their lesser goaltender. Joel Hofer (-0.06 GSAx) hasn't been up to the task, allowing 14 goals in 5 games this year.
Not only should the Ducks be a comfortable favorite with a rest edge, but their offense should show out.
Frank Vatrano is projected by numberFire's model for the most shots of any player today (3.72). At a team-best 3.35 shots per game in a tremendous matchup, that makes plenty of sense. I'd be wary of trust Vatrano to outperform his projection at even money, but it's a no-brainer at +175.
His teammate, Mason McTavish, earned a recent promotion to the Ducks' second even-strength line, and he's now the point man on Anaheim's top power play. As a result, numberFire is pegging him with a 40.0% chance to score tonight, which should be a +150 line instead of McTavish's current +225 odds.
The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.