NHL Betting Picks and Player Props to Target: Saturday 2/24/24

Saturday usually means a busy night on the ice, and we've got 26 teams in action at some point today. With no shortage of options to choose from, there are some pretty tasty wagers sitting at FanDuel Sportsbook's proverbial kiosks.

Whether it's moneylines, total goals, or player props, there are plenty of ways to bet on the NHL action all season long. It's a long 82-game season, meaning that the best selections of each night can be very different based on backup goalies coming into play, injuries that add up, and if teams are due for positive or negative swings.

My favorite picks are on the way, but don't forget to check out FanDuel's Parlay Hub to see other trending bets in all sports -- including ice hockey.

Let's dive into the best bets for tonight.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All NHL betting odds and totals come from FanDuel Sportsbook.

NHL Best Bets

Tampa Bay Lightning at New York Islanders

Islanders ML (-114)

Patrick Roy's New York Islanders have improved to the point where they're worthy favorites over the Tampa Bay Lightning -- one of the East's top contenders entering the year. What a world, huh?

At home, New York has a 50.8 expected-goals-for rate (xGF%) in the past 30 days compared to Tampa's 52.6%. In a vacuum, they're slightly behind the Bolts, but this isn't a vacuum when factoring in today's netminders.

Ilya Sorokin has shook off an early-season slump to post 1.94 goals saved above expectation (GSAx) in this same period. On the other hand, Andrei Vasilevskiy's 2023-24 campaign has never gotten out of neutral, and Vasy has posted -3.31 GSAx in the past month (eighth-worst in the NHL).

While things are pretty tight, I'll take home ice and the better goaltender in a defacto pick 'em.

Washington Capitals at Florida Panthers

Panthers Team Total Over 3.5 (-128)
Sam Reinhart 3+ Shots on Goal (-135)

It sounds absurd to even say, but the Florida Panthers were shut out on Thursday in Raleigh. I'm expecting a huge offensive bounce back on Saturday.

The Ice Cats will host a Washington Capitals squad that can't catch a break. They've now added T.J. Oshie to the injured list, and they haven't been firing on all cylinders as is. Washington has ceded the seventh-most expected goals (xG) per 60 minutes (3.43) in the past month.

Plus, their once-sensational goaltender has faltered. Washington's Charlie Lindgren has amassed -4.02 GSAx in the past 30 days. Now, they'll take on a Panthers offense scoring 3.51 xG per 60 in the same period? Yikes.

In the event Florida is able to pot four or more, Sam Reinhart is an excellent candidate to contribute. Reinhart skates on Florida's top line and top power-play unit, posting a 19:42 TOI average in February. Some may see Reinhart's seven shots on Thursday as a fluke, but it's actually no coincidence. Carter Verhaeghe (3.30 shots per game) was bumped off his line recently, and that will allow Reinhart the opportunity to receive Aleksander Barkov passes more often.

FanDuel Research's NHL projections expect 3.3 shots on Saturday, so I don't mind -135 juice to assume he meets 3.0.

Toronto Maple Leafs at Colorado Avalanche

Maple Leafs ML (+102)
John Tavares to Record a Point (-132)

Before the season, a pick 'em in this matchup seems appropriate. The Colorado Avalanche just aren't who we thought they were.

In the past month, Colorado's 47.7 xGF% is 10th-worst in all of hockey, and they've posted just a 5-4-2 record in this time. I'm actually pretty stunned the public are bailing on a red-hot Toronto Maple Leafs team that has a 9-2-0 record in the same stretch, and their underlying xGF% (55.3%) backs up the stretch of wins.

Skating isn't the only component to winning an NHL game, but the goaltending is pretty even here. Alexandar Georgiev (5.44 GSAx in the past 30 days) is the reason the Avs have stayed afloat, but Toronto's Ilya Samsonov (4.61 GSAx) isn't too far behind. I'd favor Toronto in this spot, so the plus coin is tremendous.

I'm shocked that John Tavares is only 56.9% implied to find the scoresheet tonight given Colorado's struggles. Tavares, centering the Leafs' second even-strength and first power-play crew, has posted 43 points in 54 games (79.6% rate). He's posted eight in seven games this month. This isn't an especially difficult matchup, either.

J.T. is projected for 0.92 points tonight by FanDuel Research, which would imply odds of -1150 for one of them. Hockey is far more random than that with few scoring events, but the value on this line that he contributes just once in some manner is undeniable.

Nashville Predators at San Jose Sharks

Over 5.5 (-142)

I try to avoid such steep juice on a line here, but I gave consideration to Over 6.5 (+114) in a modest spot for offense.

Of course, it's always going to be a heavier projected lean on the San Jose Sharks' opponent than their own impotent offense. San Jose has allowed a league-high 3.76 xG per 60 minutes in the past month while scoring just 2.47 per 60 themselves (second-worst). Yet, is it out of the question they can best the Nashville Predators a couple of times? Not at all.

Nashville allows a middle-of-the-road 3.10 xG per 60 minutes in this same period, but the largest factor is the extremely human performance of Juuse Saros this season. The former Vezina contender has posted just 0.16 GSAx in the past month.

numberFire's model expected six-plus goals 60.8% of the time this game is played, so while -142 seems steep, it might not be quite steep enough.

Anaheim Ducks at Los Angeles Kings

Drew Doughty to Record a Point (-138)

This betting line is incredibly sketchy.

The Anaheim Ducks have been easily the worst team in the NHL for a month with a 38.0 xGF% and a goaltender, John Gibson, who ranks toward the bottom in the same period in GSAx (-4.28). Yet, they're slight favorites (-111) to keep things with a marker of the 28-17-10 Los Angeles Kings? What?

Everything in my heart wanted to take the Kings' team total or puckline (-108) in this space, but I think the appropriate move is just this baseline offensive output for Drew Doughty. The Kings' top defenseman has one of the top TOI roles (25:43) in the NHL, so if L.A. is scoring in some capacity, there's a decent chance he's involved. Doughty has a point rate of 56.4% this season.

Plus, Anaheim allows the third-most fantasy points to defensemen, which is a good indicator of point production.

FDR has Doughty projected for 0.75 points in this game, which would imply odds of -300 for one. I think I'll just take my nibble with him and see if the extremely public ship does indeed sink if oddsmakers' evaluation of this game is correct.

Looking for more NHL betting opportunities? Check out all of the NHL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.