NHL Betting Picks and Player Props to Target: Saturday 12/23/23

Saturday usually means a busy night on the ice, and we've got 28 teams in action at some point today as the NHL heads into its holiday break. With no shortage of options to choose from, there are some pretty tasty wagers sitting at FanDuel Sportsbook's proverbial kiosks.

Whether it's moneylines, total goals, or player props, there are plenty of ways to bet on the NHL action all season long. It's a long 82-game season, meaning that the best selections of each night can be very different based on backup goalies coming into play, injuries that add up, and if teams are due for positive or negative swings.

Let's dive into the best bets for tonight.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All NHL betting odds and totals come from FanDuel Sportsbook.

NHL Best Bets

Pittsburgh Penguins at Ottawa Senators

Penguins ML (-102)

I have no idea how the Pittsburgh Penguins are the underdog here. By any measure, the Pens are the better team on equal rest.

Pittsburgh is 7th in expected-goals-for rate (52.2 xGF%) this season, and the Ottawa Senators (51.9 xGF%) are 11th. That means, in terms of skating, Pittsburgh has typically had the upper hand.

Well, what about goaltending? It actually couldn't be much wider. Tristan Jarry has had a phenomenal season, ranking 8th in overall goals saved above expectation (12.66 GSAx) of 81 qualifying goaltenders. Ottawa's Joonas Korpisalo (-7.74 GSAx) ranks 77th.

Is it the Senators' prolific advantage on home ice? Nope. They're 8-9 straight up (SU) and 8-7 against the spread (ATS) at Canadian Tire Centre in 2023-24.

numberFire's model has Pittsburgh winning this game 50.4% of the time on the road. My mental figure is much, much higher.

Detroit Red Wings at New Jersey Devils

Over 7.5 (+164)
Jesper Bratt Anytime Goal (+165)
Dylan Larkin Anytime Goal (+220)

I'm not typically one for swallowing chalk on a massive total, but I've even lept to FanDuel Sportsbook's alternate totals for this plus coin. Goals should rain in Newark today.

Of course, the New Jersey Devils are always down for a shootout. Allowing a middle-of-the-road 3.10 expected goals per 60 minutes, their goaltending has been abysmal all season. Vitek Vanecek ranks 80th in cumulative GSAx (-9.35) this year. However, they'll be able to tee off on the Detroit Red Wings thanks to some unfortunate circumstances.

Due to injuries to both of their primary goalies, Detroit is sending out Michael Hutchinson today. Hutchinson's 2.98 GAA this year is fine...until you realize it's come in the minors. Hutchinson also posted -5.43 GSAx in 16 appearances last year with the Columbus Blue Jackets.

With abysmal goaltending on both sides, expect an onslaught today. If that's the case, numberFire's player projections love these two top-shelf forwards to light the lamp. The model would set Jesper Bratt's odds at -150 to score, and it would set Dylan Larkin's odds at +127. Both of these are showing extraordinary value and correlate well with the over.

With roles on the top power play in a game filled with fireworks, both of those projections don't surprise me one bit.

New York Islanders at Carolina Hurricanes

Under 6.5 (-124)

He's baaaaaack.

After a sluggish start to the 2023-24 campaign, last year's leader in overall GSAx has found his stride again. Ilya Sorokin of the New York Islanders has caught fire to now rank 11th of 81 qualifiers in GSAx (10.43). He's allowed just 18 goals in six December tilts behind one of the league's worst defenses, rescuing the Isles from 3.48 expected goals per 60 minutes.

With Sorokin on fire, it's a no-brainer to take the under against the Carolina Hurricanes today when these clubs met six times in last year's postseason. All six games had 5.5-goal totals.

Carolina gets it done differently. Pyotr Kochetkov (-1.90 GSAx) hasn't been great this year, but he's been a huge upgrade over Antti Raanta (-9.51 GSAx) recently. Of course, both play in front of the league's best defense in terms of expected goals allowed per 60 minutes (2.64), so they're ripe for an under with just an average outing.

numberFire's model expects the under to cash 60.9% of the time in this one, which would lead to -156 odds. Don't be afraid to drink a little juice with this line.

Arizona Coyotes at Colorado Avalanche

Coyotes +1.5 (-130)
Alexander Kerfoot Anytime Goal (+490)

Goaltending could play a massive role in tonight's Arizona Coyotes-Colorado Avalanche affair.

In general, the Avs are deserving of being a heavy favorite in tonight's tilt. Their 52.2 xGF% (ninth-best in the NHL) towers over Arizona's (48.9%). However, the men between the pipes are equally mismatched.

Arizona's Connor Ingram may snag Vezina Trophy votes if he can will the Coyotes to the postseason this year. Ingram's 13.28 GSAx are fifth-most in the NHL. On the flip side, Alexandar Georgiev has the most appearances (26) for a goaltender below 1.00 GSAx. At 0.48 GSAx, he just hasn't been a difference-maker.

On the back of their netminder, I like the Coyotes to cover. numberFire's model is with me, pegging them a 62.9% chance to keep this game within a marker.

For a little added fun, why not mix in a revenge narrative? Former Colorado centre Alexander Kerfoot has lept onto the Yotes' top even-strength and power-play line with the prolific Clayton Keller, and his offensive output has skyrocketed. Kerfoot has amassed 11 points in 10 December contests behind a massive TOI average (20:09).

With 15 shots in this period, he's put enough on target to assume a bump in shot volume against the team that jettisoned him from their 2022 title club. Against mediocre goaltending, why not take a quarter-unit stab at a tally this evening?

San Jose Sharks at Vancouver Canucks

Under 6.5 (-110)

I might be falling into a trap with this nightcap, but the San Jose Sharks' offense has been brutal all season, and the Vancouver Canucks have joined them this month. I have no clue how this total is 6.5 goals -- other than better San Jose opponents posting at least four tallies in three straight games.

San Jose's posted just 2.88 expected goals per 60 minutes this month, and Vancouver (2.95) hasn't been much better. Those are both bottom-10 marks in the NHL.

So, is the goaltending poor here? Not at all. Even if the Canucks turn to Casey DeSmith (6.97 GSAx) to extend a large break for Thatcher Demko (18.65 GSAx; best in the NHL), he should be well-equipped to stop the Sharks. San Jose's Mackenzie Blackwood (1.53 GSAx) hasn't been bad when he's got a forgiving matchup on deck, as well.

This smells just like a line being bet up by lazy trends. Against better foes, 8 of the Sharks' last 11 games have gone over their projected total, but the Canucks are having trouble mustering that firepower. Overall, San Jose is still 20-13 to the under this season behind their league-worst offense. I think they head into the break quietly.

Looking for more NHL betting opportunities? Check out all of the NHL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.