NHL Betting Picks and Player Props to Target: Saturday 1/6/24

Saturday usually means a busy night on the ice, and we've got 24 teams in action at some point today. With no shortage of options to choose from, there are some pretty tasty wagers sitting at FanDuel Sportsbook's proverbial kiosks.

Whether it's moneylines, total goals, or player props, there are plenty of ways to bet on the NHL action all season long. It's a long 82-game season, meaning that the best selections of each night can be very different based on backup goalies coming into play, injuries that add up, and if teams are due for positive or negative swings.

Let's dive into the best bets for tonight.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All NHL betting odds and totals come from FanDuel Sportsbook.

NHL Best Bets

Florida Panthers at Colorado Avalanche

Panthers ML (+106)
Carter Verhaeghe Anytime Goal (+170)

The Colorado Avalanche have escaped the New York Islanders and Dallas Stars in overtime this week, but they'll be hard-pressed to escape the Florida Panthers today.

Colorado was able to outskate the two weaker foes behind their 52.4% expected-goals-for rate (xGF%), but Florida is a different monster. The Avs' mark ranks eighth in the NHL, yet Florida (56.7 xGF%) significantly outranks them in second.

The primary reason the Avalanche have needed to escape has been Alexandar Georgiev. The netminder has posted -1.61 goals saved above expectation (GSAx) in the past 30 days. Florida's Sergei Bobrovsky (7.83 GSAx) is eighth in the NHL in the same time period.

The Ice Cats should be favored today on equal rest -- home ice or not.

Georgiev's struggles open the door for Carter Verhaeghe to stretch his goal-scoring streak to five games. Verhaeghe has earned a promotion to Florida's top line and has continued to deliver with at least three shots in five of his last seven games.

numberFire's projections would put Verhaeghe at -104 to score today, and FanDuel's odds of +170 are the best on the market by a considerable margin. I'd act quickly to back the Panthers' prolific scorer.

New York Rangers at Montreal Canadiens

Canadiens +1.5 (-137)

This is a curious line, isn't it?

The New York Rangers entered the season as a title threat and have a 26-10-1 record, but their peripheral numbers don't match that status. New York is just 18th in xGF% (50.4%), and Igor Shesterkin hasn't been prohibitive lately, posting just 1.15 GSAx in 11 starts during the past month of play.

Meanwhile, the Montreal Canadiens aren't nearly as bad as we thought they'd be. Their 46.4 xGF% is just normal bad rather than an outlier mark a year ago, and Sam Montembeault's .924 Fenwick save percentage is really solid. Montembeault, as the backup, is often thrown to tougher competitors than Jake Allen, too. Montreal has typically saved Allen for winnable matchups.

Oddsmakers and numberFire's model are giving Montreal an identical 57.8% implied chance to cover this game, but logic breaks the tie here. Most will leap to New York's puckline (+126) over a -194 moneyline with heavy juice, and no one is rushing to bet the 16-17-5 Canadiens in this spot.

This is a glorious spot to fade the public, and peripheral data backs up the Habs competing at home here.

Tampa Bay Lightning at Boston Bruins

Under 6.5 (-130)

In previous years, these offenses lit the lamp with regularity. In terms of doing just that, there's just not a lot of special in the 2023-24 versions of them.

The Tampa Bay Lightning are just 13th in expected goals per 60 minutes this season (3.15), and the Boston Bruins are 21st (3.00). Given the drain of talent from both clubs in the offseason, we should have better seen this coming.

Of course, the goaltending here is still pretty elite with former Vezina winners in each goal. Tampa's Andrei Vasilevskiy has posted a solid 2.99 GSAx in the past month as he's begun to shake off the rust from no preseason due to injury, and reigning top NHL goalie Linus Ullmark has dominated the B's net to 12.34 GSAx for the season.

Name value is all I can come up with as to why this line is so high. 12 of the Bolts' 21 road games have fallen short of their total, and 9 of the Bruins' 17 home contests have met the same fate. This one screams under.

Minnesota Wild at Columbus Blue Jackets

Blue Jackets ML (+114)
Matthew Boldy Under 3.5 Shots (-115)

The Minnesota Wild are down their top skater and goaltender. They should not be favored under any circumstances today as a middle-of-the-road club with them.

Filip Gustavsson had just shaken off the early-season struggles with 5.99 GSAx in the past month, and now he's headed toward IR. Minnesota is currently riding Marc-Andre Fleury, and the vet looks like he's been through the ol' washing machine. He's amassed -2.00 GSAx in limited time this season.

On the flip side, Elvis Merzlikins has continued his strong start to the Columbus Blue Jackets' season with 7.21 GSAx, which ranks 20th of 82 qualifying goaltenders.

Most of the year, you'd expect the Wild (50.5 xGF%) to outskate the Jackets (44.2 xGF%), but without Kirill Kaprizov, that's no longer a certainty -- especially on the road.

Speaking of Kaprizov's absence, I caution those targeting it by slamming Matthew Boldy's shot prop at plus money today. Boldy has posted just 2.0 shots per game in the pair of contests without him, and Mats Zuccarello could be returning to he and Joel Eriksson Ek's line today.

Eriksson Ek and Zuccarello combine for 5.95 shots per game, which doesn't leave much on the bone for Boldy. numberFire has him at just 2.9 projected shots today, so the -115 price on the under is more than justified.

St. Louis Blues at Carolina Hurricanes

Over 6.5 (-106)
Andrei Svechnikov Anytime Goal (+160)

Two struggling goaltenders could lead to a surprise over in Raleigh this evening.

Of course, the Carolina Hurricanes aren't exactly the "surprising" side facing the St. Louis Blues. St. Louis allows the 7th-most expected goals per 60 minutes (3.30), and Carolina posts the 10th-most expected goals per 60 themselves (3.22). Earlier in the year, Jordan Binnington's solid efforts always gave the Blues a chance on D, but Binnington has waffled to -4.80 GSAx in the last month of play.

However, we can't write off the Notes' ability to light lamps in this one, either. Antti Raanta is projected to get the start for the Canes on the back-to-back, and that's been a dismal sight all year. Raanta's -9.82 GSAx rank 79th of 82 qualifying netminders, which is how he lost the starting job. The Blues are quietly 18th in expected goals per 60 (3.07), as well.

numberFire's value model doesn't love overs often, but it's projecting one here 52.1% of the time, and it expects Andrei Svechnikov to contribute from the home side. A median projection of 0.50 goals translates to +100 odds for one in this contest, yet we can find the Hurricanes' top winger at +160 to score -- something he's done seven times in his last five games.

With multiple shots in each of his past six games, Svechnikov should get a solid look or two at the Blues' struggling 'tender.

Looking for more NHL betting opportunities? Check out all of the NHL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.