NFL Wild Card Betting Picks: Dolphins at Chiefs

After 18 weeks of twists and turns, the NFL regular season has left us with 14 teams vying for Super Bowl LVIII.

Wild Card Weekend features six games, and today we are going to take a look at the second one: Saturday night's clash between the Miami Dolphins and Kansas City Chiefs.

All NFL odds via FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.

Dolphins-Chiefs Betting Odds: Spread, Moneyline, and Total

Kickoff: Saturday (Jan. 13), 8:00 p.m. ET on Peacock

Location: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO

Spread: KC -4.0

Moneyline:

• Dolphins: +172
• Chiefs: -205

Total: 44.0

Dolphins-Chiefs Wild Card Game Analysis

The first thing to note about this game is that it is expected to be played in extremely cold weather. While that is far from ideal for either team, it is likely to have a greater impact on a Dolphins team that plays half of their games in conditions that are the opposite of what is expected in Kansas City on Saturday night.

This game features two teams that enter the playoffs with plenty of uncertainty after regular seasons that were far from pristine.

The Dolphins come into this one fresh off a late season collapse that saw them relinquish the AFC East title to the Buffalo Bills with their 21-14 loss in Week 18. Miami lost three of their final five games, including a head-scratching 28-27 loss to the Tennessee Titans in Week 14.

Miami finished the season ranked fifth overall on offense, according to numberFire's schedule-adjusted models, and 12th overall on defense. While they found plenty of success against lesser opposition, their season was defined by their struggles against better opponents. Against non-playoff teams this season, the Dolphins are 10-1; against teams that made the playoffs, they are 1-5. Those struggles were even worse on the road, where they were 0-4 against teams that made the playoffs with a combined scoreline of 70-156 -- a minus-86 point differential.

The other issue for Miami is injuries. They enter the playoffs with injuries to multiple key players on both sides of the ball. Jalen Phillips (Achilles) and Bradley Chubb (knee) will not be available, and Xavien Howard (foot) missed Week 18. Their high-flying offense could be without Jaylen Waddle and Raheem Mostert, who haven't played since Week 16.

This all sounds like it should set up nicely for the Chiefs, but they are dealing with issues of their own. Simply put, these are not the Chiefs we are used to seeing during the Patrick Mahomes era. Their offense ranks 10th overall, which is still respectable but far below the elite level we have seen from Kansas City since Mahomes arrived.

The good news for the Chiefs is they have helped balance that out with a defense that ranks fourth overall, per numberFire. Even their defense has a weakness, though; they are significantly better against the pass (3rd) than against the run (25th). The Dolphins passing attack ranks higher than their run game, but their rushing offense still ranks 10th. If Mostert is available, it will be a huge boost for Miami.

The Chiefs still rank sixth overall in numberFire's power rankings, but they have been far less efficient on offense -- and far more prone to mistakes -- than in recent seasons. Excluding their Week 18 win over the Los Angeles Chargers in which they rested their starters, the Chiefs enter Saturday's showdown with just two wins in their last five games.

Playing at home against an injured Dolphins squad, the Chiefs are deserving favorites in this one. That has more to do with their opponent and less to do with their own play this season, which still leaves multiple questions to be answered as the postseason begins.

Dolphins-Chiefs Wild Card Best Bets

Under 44.0 (-110)

The inconsistency both of these teams have displayed this season, combined with the potential for extremely cold weather, has me preferring the under.

On the surface, these are two of the better offenses in the league with elite playmakers on both sides, but injuries for Miami and a lack of experienced pass-catchers for the Chiefs could result in a lower-scoring contest.

The Chiefs' defense has only allowed more than 21 points in a game twice this season. Against playoff teams, Miami's offense is averaging just 17.6 points per game. Injuries to the Dolphins' defense could make things easier for the Chiefs' offense, but Miami just held the Bills to 21 points in Week 18 -- 7 of which came on a punt return touchdown. Plus, Buffalo's offense ranks third overall, per numberFire, and seven spots above Kansas City.

Dolphins Total Points Under 20.5 (-128)

For many of the same reasons I prefer the under in the game total, I also like taking the under on Miami's team total of 20.5.

In their six games against playoff teams this season, the Dolphins have scored more than 20.5 points just once -- their 22-20 victory over the Dallas Cowboys in Week 16. In their four road games against playoff teams this season, they are averaging just 17.5 points per game. The Chiefs' have allowed the second-fewest points in the NFL this seaso, behind only Baltimore.

When these two teams met in Germany in Week 9, Kansas City won 21-14 and limited Miami's passing game. Tyreek Hill had 8 receptions on 10 targets for 62 yards, Waddle caught 3 of 6 targets for 42 yards, and Tua Tagovailoa completed 21 of 34 attempts for 193 yards and 1 touchdown.

Miami did find success on the ground with Mostert producing 85 rushing yards and a touchdown on 12 carries (7.8 yards per carry). That is a potential concern in this one; the Chiefs are vulnerable on the ground. Rookie De'Von Achane is an electric playmaker, but the potential absence of Mostert, who leads the league in rushing touchdowns, would be a big loss for Miami.

Chiefs First Half -2.5 (-120)

In Week 9's game, the Chiefs jumped out to an early lead, scoring two passing touchdowns and a defensive touchdown to take a 21-0 lead into halftime.

After resting key players in Week 18, Kansas City should be ready to go on Saturday. Playing at home, against a team with far less postseason experience that is also missing several stars on defense, this game sets up well for the Chiefs to get off to a good start.

The continued development of rookie wide receiver Rashee Rice provides Kansas City with a consistent pass-catching option they did not have the last time these teams clashed.

Miami still has a talented roster, but this game is a combination of the two things they have struggled with the most this season -- road games and games against playoff caliber teams. They could start slowly in the cold.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.