NFL Week 3 Spread and Total Predictions for Every Game

In the NFL, you're never lacking in prediction models to try to give you an idea of what to expect in a given week, whether those models are for betting or other purposes.

Below, we're going to run through what my spread and total models say about Week 3's NFL games.

As a disclaimer, this is my own, personal betting model. I'll lay out which bets I'm willing to make based on it compared to FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL betting odds, but as always, you'll have to decide for yourself whether there's enough value for you to the plunge, as well.

The spread model is largely based on numberFire's Net Expected Points (NEP) model, which is their version of EPA. The totals model factors in things such as pace and wind speed, as well. Numbers are manually edited to reflect the players who are expected to play in a given game.

Without further ado, here's what I've got for this upcoming slate of games.

NOTE: Last updated Sunday at 10:51 am Eastern.

NFL Week 3 Predictions

Dolphins at Bills Prediction

Spread Prediction: Bills -11.8

Total Prediction: 52.8

Betting Odds

Raiders at Commanders Prediction

Spread Prediction: Commanders -2.2

Total Prediction: 45.5

Betting Odds

Thoughts: This now reflects Marcus Mariota as being the projected starter for the Washington Commanders.

Falcons at Panthers Prediction

Spread Prediction: Falcons -1.9

Total Prediction: 44.8

Betting Odds

Thoughts: Showing value in the Carolina Panthers even after downgrading them for offensive-line injuries.

Packers at Browns Prediction

Spread Prediction: Packers -8.5

Total Prediction: 45.3

Betting Odds

Steelers at Patriots Prediction

Spread Prediction: Patriots -0.8

Total Prediction: 43.2

Betting Odds

Rams at Eagles Prediction

Spread Prediction: Eagles -4.2

Total Prediction: 48.4

Betting Odds

Thoughts: I am showing value in the over but not super enthusiastic about taking it.

Colts at Titans Prediction

Spread Prediction: Colts -2.4

Total Prediction: 40.7

Betting Odds

Thoughts: The Tennessee Titans' defense has been good enough where I'm willing to act on the value I have on the under. This will also be the Indianapolis Colts' first outdoor and road game of the year.

Jets at Buccaneers Prediction

Spread Prediction: Bucs -7.4

Total Prediction: 48.5

Betting Odds

Thoughts: Even with Tyrod Taylor likely starting for the New York Jets, I'm willing to bet this over. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers' offense is chugging, and the Jets' defense hasn't impressed thus far.

Bengals at Vikings Prediction

Spread Prediction: Vikings -3.6

Total Prediction: 41.7

Betting Odds

Texans at Jaguars Prediction

Spread Prediction: Texans -1.6

Total Prediction: 42.7

Betting Odds

Thoughts: Although the Houston Texans move outdoors, they get their easiest defensive matchup yet. I'm willing to bet on them to get their first win of the season, taking their moneyline at +102.

Saints at Seahawks Prediction

Spread Prediction: Seahawks -4.4

Total Prediction: 44.0

Betting Odds

Thoughts: The New Orleans Saints' offense has been surprisingly competent so far, so while I think my model is too high on them, I'm willing to take them even as the market moves against them to 7.5

Broncos at Chargers Prediction

Spread Prediction: Chargers -2.0

Total Prediction: 45.4

Betting Odds

Cardinals at 49ers Prediction

Spread Prediction: Cardinals -0.4

Total Prediction: 45.3

Betting Odds

Thoughts: This is with Brock Purdy and Jauan Jennings assumed as out.

Cowboys at Bears Prediction

Spread Prediction: Cowboys -0.5

Total Prediction: 45.1

Betting Odds

Thoughts: Offensive efficiency is the main catalyst of my totals model, and while neither team has been hideous, they're not standout enough to justify a total this high, no matter what the defenses have looked like. There's also projected 10 mph winds in Chicago, further driving down my total and putting me on the under at 50.5

Chiefs at Giants Prediction

Spread Prediction: Chiefs -4.8

Total Prediction: 47.3

Betting Odds

Lions at Ravens Prediction

Spread Prediction: Ravens -3.9

Total Prediction: 54.8

Betting Odds

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.