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NFL Week 18 Spread and Total Predictions for Every Game
In the NFL, you're never lacking in prediction models to try to give you an idea of what to expect in a given week, whether those models are for betting or other purposes.
Below, we're going to run through what my spread and total models say about Week 18's NFL games.
As a disclaimer, this is my own, personal betting model. I'll lay out which bets I'm willing to make based on it compared to FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL betting odds, but as always, you'll have to decide for yourself whether there's enough value for you to the plunge, as well.
The spread model is largely based on numberFire's Net Expected Points (NEP) model, which is their version of EPA. The totals model factors in things such as pace and wind speed, as well. Numbers are manually edited to reflect the players who are expected to play in a given game.
Without further ado, here's what I've got for this upcoming slate of games.
Last updated Tuesday at 12:14 pm Eastern.
NFL Week 18 Predictions
Panthers at Buccaneers Prediction
Spread Prediction: Buccaneers -3.4
Total Prediction: 42.5
Betting Odds
Moneyline
Spread
Total Match Points
Seahawks at 49ers Prediction
Spread Prediction: 49ers -0.1
Total Prediction: 44.8
Betting Odds
Moneyline
Spread
Total Match Points
Thoughts: As much as I hate backing the under for a San Francisco 49ers game, I do think that total has gotten too high, given the Seattle Seahawks' defense.
Saints at Falcons Prediction
Spread Prediction: Falcons -2.9
Total Prediction: 41.3
Betting Odds
Moneyline
Spread
Total Match Points
Browns at Bengals Prediction
Spread Prediction: Bengals -8.7
Total Prediction: 43.2
Betting Odds
Moneyline
Spread
Total Match Points
Cowboys at Giants Prediction
Spread Prediction: Cowboys -1.9
Total Prediction: 54.5
Betting Odds
Moneyline
Spread
Total Match Points
Thoughts: Jaxson Dart looked a lot healthier last week and even got some designed runs again. I'm willing to back him and the New York Giants at home.
Packers at Vikings Prediction
Spread Prediction: Vikings -4.6
Total Prediction: 36.5
Betting Odds
Moneyline
Spread
Total Match Points
Colts at Texans Prediction
Spread Prediction: Texans -10.7
Total Prediction: 42.5
Betting Odds
Moneyline
Spread
Total Match Points
Titans at Jaguars Prediction
Spread Prediction: Jaguars -14.2
Total Prediction: 43.9
Betting Odds
Moneyline
Spread
Total Match Points
Thoughts: I prefer the under to laying the points with the Jacksonville Jaguars here. The Jags' defense is playing well enough for me to feel comfortable with that.
Chiefs at Raiders Prediction
Spread Prediction: Chiefs -1.8
Total Prediction: 38.7
Betting Odds
Moneyline
Spread
Total Match Points
Thoughts: I can't reasonably project the Las Vegas Raiders any worse than this, and 5.5 is a lot for a team quarterbacked by Chris Oladokun to lay. What could go wrong betting a team that's very clearly tanking?
Lions at Bears Prediction
Spread Prediction: Lions -0.8
Total Prediction: 48.6
Betting Odds
Moneyline
Spread
Total Match Points
Thoughts: This is projecting both teams at full capacity, so proceed with caution here.
Chargers at Broncos Prediction
Spread Prediction: Broncos -7.4
Total Prediction: 41.9
Betting Odds
Moneyline
Spread
Total Match Points
Thoughts: As of now, I have just Justin Herbert projected as out for the Los Angeles Chargers. The market seems to be implying it'll be a bunch more impactful names, so proceed with caution.
Dolphins at Patriots Prediction
Spread Prediction: Patriots -12.9
Total Prediction: 50.6
Betting Odds
Moneyline
Spread
Total Match Points
Thoughts: Quinn Ewers' efficiency numbers have been good enough for me to back the over in this one.
Commanders at Eagles Prediction
Spread Prediction: Eagles -6.9
Total Prediction: 43.2
Betting Odds
Moneyline
Spread
Total Match Points
Cardinals at Rams Prediction
Spread Prediction: Rams -12.7
Total Prediction: 52.6
Betting Odds
Moneyline
Spread
Total Match Points
Thoughts: This is with the Los Angeles Rams' starters projected as in, but the market is somewhere between there and the backups. Proceed with caution.
Jets at Bills Prediction
Spread Prediction: Bills -8.5
Total Prediction: 41.8
Betting Odds
Moneyline
Spread
Total Match Points
Thoughts: Projecting Mitchell Trubisky as the starter for the Buffalo Bills. Even he might be able to do damage against this New York Jets defense, so the over is at least a consideration.
Ravens at Steelers Prediction
Spread Prediction: Steelers -1.2
Total Prediction: 43.5
Betting Odds
Moneyline
Spread
Total Match Points
Thoughts: Even with no D.K. Metcalf, I still can't sniff the market here. As bad as it feels after last week, I do think the Pittsburgh Steelers are the proper side.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.
