NFL Week 16 Spread and Total Predictions for Every Game

In the NFL, you're never lacking in prediction models to try to give you an idea of what to expect in a given week, whether those models are for betting or other purposes.

Below, we're going to run through what my spread and total models say about Week 16's NFL games.

As a disclaimer, this is my own, personal betting model. I'll lay out which bets I'm willing to make based on it compared to FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL betting odds, but as always, you'll have to decide for yourself whether there's enough value for you to the plunge, as well.

The spread model is largely based on numberFire's Net Expected Points (NEP) model, which is their version of EPA. The totals model factors in things such as pace and wind speed, as well. Numbers are manually edited to reflect the players who are expected to play in a given game.

Without further ado, here's what I've got for this upcoming slate of games.

Last updated Sunday at 6:56 am Eastern.

NFL Week 16 Predictions

Rams at Seahawks Prediction

Spread Prediction: Rams -0.6

Total Prediction: 39.9

Betting Odds

Thoughts: Now showing value in both the under and the Los Angeles Rams' moneyline, and I'm willing to bet both.

Eagles at Commanders Prediction

Spread Prediction: Eagles -4.9

Total Prediction: 46.5

Betting Odds

Packers at Bears Prediction

Spread Prediction: Packers -2.6

Total Prediction: 46.8

Betting Odds

Thoughts: It's a big downgrade for the Green Bay Packers to not have Micah Parsons, but they've been the team with the more sustainable underlying metrics this year. I agree with the model that there's some value in backing them here.

Chargers at Cowboys Prediction

Spread Prediction: Cowboys -1.7

Total Prediction: 50.2

Betting Odds

Vikings at Giants Prediction

Spread Prediction: Giants -1.3

Total Prediction: 42.7

Betting Odds

Thoughts: Back-to-back fun games for J.J. McCarthy, but the overall body of work for Jaxson Dart has been better. That puts me on the New York Giants even with the big gap between these two defenses.

Bills at Browns Prediction

Spread Prediction: Bills -10.4

Total Prediction: 41.3

Betting Odds

Jets at Saints Prediction

Spread Prediction: Saints -6.1

Total Prediction: 41.9

Betting Odds

Buccaneers at Panthers Prediction

Spread Prediction: Buccaneers -1.1

Total Prediction: 43.9

Betting Odds

Bengals at Dolphins Prediction

Spread Prediction: Bengals -0.4

Total Prediction: 46.1

Betting Odds

Thoughts: This number now reflects that Quinn Ewers will start for the Miami Dolphins. With Mike McDaniel's ability to elevate an offense, I don't think I can lower the Dolphins more than I have them in my model, but I also have a hard time pulling the trigger on backing Ewers in his debut.

Chiefs at Titans Prediction

Spread Prediction: Chiefs -3.1

Total Prediction: 37.9

Betting Odds

Jaguars at Broncos Prediction

Spread Prediction: Broncos -2.1

Total Prediction: 41.4

Betting Odds

Thoughts: I've given the Jacksonville Jaguars' offense a pretty big boost due to their recent play, but I'm still showing tons of value in the under. I'm willing to take that given the strength of both defenses.

Falcons at Cardinals Prediction

Spread Prediction: Cardinals -1.2

Total Prediction: 45.3

Betting Odds

Thoughts: Showing value in both the Arizona Cardinals and the under. They've been out of the playoff hunt for a while, and the offense has still played hard, so I do think the Cardinals' moneyline is worth a sniff as things stand.

Steelers at Lions Prediction

Spread Prediction: Lions -6.4

Total Prediction: 50.9

Betting Odds

Raiders at Texans Prediction

Spread Prediction: Texans -13.0

Total Prediction: 41.4

Betting Odds

Thoughts: The Houston Texans' team total will likely be the smarter play here than the full game over, given how miserable this Las Vegas Raiders offense has looked lately.

Patriots at Ravens Prediction

Spread Prediction: Patriots -1.0

Total Prediction: 46.5

Betting Odds

Thoughts: I was on the New England Patriots last week, and it didn't go great, but I haven't seen enough from the Baltimore Ravens to think they should be favored against a team that has broadly looked as good as New England.

49ers at Colts Prediction

Spread Prediction: 49ers -3.7

Total Prediction: 47.3

Betting Odds

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.