NFL Week 14 Expert Betting Picks and Predictions

Scott Edwards Jr.
Scott Edwards Jr.@ScottEdwardsJr
NFL Week 14 Expert Betting Picks and Predictions

Each week throughout the NFL season, the staff here at FanDuel Research will bring you their three favorite bets on the board -- one side, one total, and one player prop. They'll share some insight into one of the picks to provide you with reasoning as to why they're on that bet.

All odds come from the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Note: Betting lines and numberFire's player projections may change after this article is published.

NFL Expert Betting Picks for Week 14

Jim Sannes, Digital Media Managing Editor

Side: Houston Texans -3.5 (-115)

Laying 3.5 in a game with such a low total is a pretty tough look. However, I've got value in the over in this game, as well, making it a tad more logical. Sure, the Texans will be without Tank Dell and (likely Dalton Schultz), but they've dealt with injuries on both offense and defense all season long. Despite that, they're still ninth in numberFire's schedule-adjusted offensive efficiency. They'll be going up against the 32nd-ranked offense by that metric. The Jets do get a boost with Zach Wilson back, but that boost was a bit overstated with the spread tightening two points. There will be adverse weather here, and it's possible that combined with the Texans' inability to run the ball will hurt them, but I still think they're too good of a team for the spread to be this tight.

Total: Cincinnati Bengals at Indianapolis Colts Under 43.5 (-110)

Player Prop: Keaton Mitchell Over 8.5 Rush Attempts (-130)

Austin Swaim, Senior Editor

Side: Chicago Bears +3 (+100)

Total: Houston Texans at New York Jets Under 33.5 (-115)

Player Prop: Josh Jacobs Under 76.5 Rushing Yards (-114)

An immense amount of volume for Josh Jacobs will be what it takes to encroach 100 rushing yards on Sunday. The Vikings are numberFire's sixth-best schedule-adjusted rush defense overall, and they've held the third-best Rushing Net Expected Points (NEP) per carry allowed in the past five weeks (-0.07). Outside of a long touchdown scamper before the Raiders' bye, Jacobs' other 19 carries went for just 47 yards against a far leakier rush D (Kansas City). This offense hasn't run the ball efficiently all year, and this matchup is not ideal to buck that trend.

Austan Kas, Senior Editor

Side: Cincinnati Bengals -1.5 (-110)

Total: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons Under 40.5 (-110)

Player Prop: Austin Ekeler Over 28.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Austin Ekeler is struggling on the ground, but he's still capable of having a big game through the air against Denver on Sunday. The Broncos' defense funnels targets to running backs, ceding the seventh-most targets per game to the position (6.9). While it's fair to be concerned about Ekeler's snap rate after midweek comments about the Chargers possibly shaking things up at running back, Joshua Kelley didn't do much with his opportunities earlier this season. Ekeler is an elite pass-catcher out of the backfield and can go for 29-plus yards in an advantageous matchup.

Tom Vecchio, Editor

Side: Cleveland Browns -3 (-105)

Total: Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers Under 46.5 (-105)

Player Prop: Lamar Jackson Under 197.5 Passing Yards (-114)

As of now, weather reports show this game with rain throughout, wind at 15 mph and gusts over 20 mph. That doesn't set up for a friendly passing environment, which leads me to under 197.5 passing yards for Lamar Jackson. He's been under this mark in three of his last five games, which shouldn't be too much of a surprise. The Ravens come in with a 48.75% pass play percentage, which is the lowest in the league.

Kenyatta Storin, Editor

Side: Los Angeles Rams +7.5 (-118)

The Rams may be a .500 team, but they might not be getting enough respect as a 7.5-point road 'dog to the Ravens. While Baltimore ranks 3rd in our power rankings, L.A. isn't that far behind in 10th. Despite the Ravens' scary defense, their adjusted rush D ranks a less imposing 13th, per numberFire, which could open the door for Kyren Williams to have a big day and keep this one close. It also can't hurt that Lamar Jackson is dealing with an illness this week, potentially hampering his play. numberFire's game projections see Baltimore winning by fewer than four points.

Total: Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears Over 43.5 (-105)

Player Prop: Matthew Stafford Over 18.5 Pass Completions (-130)

Aidan Cotter, Writer

Side: Miami Dolphins -13.5 (-110)

Total: Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears Over 43.5 (-105)

Player Prop: D.J. Moore Over 5.5 Receptions (+112)

D.J. Moore has caught at least six passes in all of Justin Fields' last four full games -- and five of seven overall. He's commanded a 29% target share with Fields under center and is coming off a season-high 11 receptions. The matchup is great; Moore caught seven passes against Detroit three weeks ago, and their secondary has fallen apart of late. Since Week 8, the Lions are allowing the 4th-highest catch rate and 10th-highest target rate for wide receivers. Expect Moore to get peppered with targets again this week.

Zack Bussiere, Writer

Side: Detroit Lions -3 (-122)

Total: Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears Over 43.5 (-105)

Player Prop: Alvin Kamara Any Time TD Scorer (-140)

There is some uncertainty about who will be under center for the Saints in Week 14. Derek Carr remains in concussion protocol but has been limited in practice all week and, if available, would remain the starter ahead of Jameis Winston. One area where there is no uncertainty this weekend is the Panthers' run defense, which ranks 32nd per numberFire's schedule-adjusted metrics. Kamara has been the focal point of the Saints' offense the last two weeks, totaling 29 carries and 10 receptions for a combined 228 total yards and 2 rushing touchdowns. If Carr is under center, expect more of the same. If Winston is under center, he will surely take his shots down the field, but I would expect New Orleans to heavily utilize the running game in an effort to keep the potential turnovers to a minimum. Either way, this situation sets up well for Kamara to find the end zone.

Gabriel Santiago, Writer

Side: Houston Texans -3.5 (-115)

Total: Los Angeles Rams at Baltimore Ravens Over 40.5 (-105)

For me, a total of 40.5 is too low in Rams-Ravens. I understand Lamar Jackson missed Thursday's practice with illness, but the 2019 MVP returned to work on Friday. Additionally, any rain in Baltimore is set to clear before kickoff. The Ravens -- coming back from a bye -- are stout on defense, but both sides here have explosive offenses. Matthew Stafford and the Rams have scored 30.0 PPG over their current three-game winning streak while Baltimore's dynamic offense has produced 27.0 PPG on the season. Additionally, numberFire projects 50.77 total points in this cross-country affair; let's root for frequent scoring at The Bank.

Player Prop: A.J. Brown Any Time TD Scorer (+125)

Annie Nader, Writer

Side: Kansas City Chiefs -1.5 (-108)

Total: Los Angeles Rams at Baltimore Ravens Over 40.5 (-105)

Player Prop: Kyren Williams Any Time Touchdown Scorer (+135)

Nick Vazquez, Writer

Side: Minnesota Vikings -3 (-106)

Total: Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears Over 43.5 (-105)

Player Prop: Jake Ferguson Over 4.5 Receptions (+106)

The Dallas Cowboys host the Philadelphia Eagles in a key NFC battle. Dallas has been pass-happy this season, ranking sixth in pass rate over expectation. The Eagles are exploitable over the middle of the field -- as we saw from George Kittle and Deebo Samuel last week. The last time these two teams matched up, Jake Ferguson caught seven passes. If Philly's game plan is to try to slow down CeeDee Lamb, Ferguson could benefit and snag at least five catches in this game.

Riley Thomas, Writer

Side: Detroit Lions -3 (-122)

Total: Minnesota Vikings at Las Vegas Raiders Under 40.5 (-110)

Player Prop: Amon-Ra St. Brown Over 74.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

After posting -0.23 expected points added per dropback (EPA/DB) in Week 12, Jared Goff bounced back with 0.25 EPA/DB in Week 13. He could continue to build momentum on Sunday against the Bears, who have numberFire’s third-worst schedule-adjusted pass defense. This should mean another good outing for Amon-Ra St. Brown, who is averaging 9.3 targets and 94.3 receiving yards per game over the last four games. Give me the over for St. Brown’s receiving yards.

Scott Edwards, Writer

Side: Houston Texans -3.5 (-115)

Total: Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills Over 48.5 (-115)

Player Prop: DeVonta Smith Over 4.5 Receptions (-162)

Devonta Smith is back to being the big playmaker that he was for the Eagles a year ago. In four of his last five games, Smith has finished with at least 6 receptions and 95 yards. The only game that he didn't? That, of course, was against the Dallas Cowboys, who they'll be playing this weekend. He did score a touchdown in that game, so they didn't completely shut him down by any means. I'm not worried about him getting shut down this weekend; this is going to be a high-scoring game on Sunday night. Over his last three weeks, he's had 27 targets, 22 receptions, 301 receiving yards, and 2 touchdowns. He's feasting with A.J. Brown getting so much attention. Expect it to continue.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.