NFL Week 13 Expert Betting Picks and Predictions

Scott Edwards Jr.
Scott Edwards Jr.@ScottEdwardsJr
NFL Week 13 Expert Betting Picks and Predictions

Each week throughout the NFL season, the staff here at FanDuel Research will bring you their three favorite bets on the board -- one side, one total, and one player prop. They'll share some insight into one of the picks to provide you with reasoning as to why they're on that bet.

All odds come from the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Note: Betting lines and numberFire's player projections may change after this article is published.

NFL Expert Betting Picks for Week 13

Jim Sannes, Digital Media Managing Editor

Side: Tampa Bay Buccaneers -5.5 (-108)

We do sometimes see a "rally around the flag" effect after a team fires its head coach, and that's obviously in play with the Panthers. Everything else, though, points to the Bucs. They rank 19th in my 2023-only power rankings while the Panthers are dead last. Although the Panthers' defense has had some success of late, that has been more due to matchups than anything else. They're still just 21st in my defensive rankings once you account for that schedule. Altogether, I've got the Bucs favored by more than a touchdown, so I'm comfortable laying the 5.5 here.

Total: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers Over 36.5 (-110)

Player Prop: Rachaad White Any Time Touchdown (+105)

Austin Swaim, Senior Editor

Side: Cleveland Browns +3.5 (-112)

Total: Atlanta Falcons at New York Jets Under 33.5 (-110)

Since the start of 2020, totals of 37 or less in the NFL are 20-4-1 to the under, so when oddsmakers hang a low total, it is for good reason. This one seems obvious. Tim Boyle has put forth a league-worst -0.49 Passing Net Expected Points (NEP) per drop back this season (min. 30 attempts). While better, Desmond Ridder's -0.05 Passing NEP per drop back also isn't great, and he's forced to face the Jets' secondary, numberFire's ninth-best schedule-adjusted pass D. This game will be loaded with negative plays on both sides. Bet the under and try to not watch as much of it as possible.

Player Prop: DeAndre Hopkins Over 53.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Austan Kas, Senior Editor

Side: San Francisco 49ers -2.5 (-118)

Total: Denver Broncos at Houston Texans Under 47.5 (-110)

Player Prop: Bijan Robinson Over 19.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

While it's scary to take any over in a game where the total is 33.5 points and there might be 15 combined passes, I think this is a good spot for Bijan Robinson to do some work through the air. The Jets' elite pass D should make it difficult for Desmond Ridder to connect with his receivers, which may funnel more looks to Bijan. That's how opponents have attacked Gang Green; the Jets have allowed the fourth-most targets per game to RBs (7.5). Given the matchup and Bijan's ability to make big plays, 20 receiving yards isn't a high bar to clear.

Tom Vecchio, Editor

Side: Detroit Lions -4.5 (-110)

Total: Denver Broncos at Houston Texans Under 47.5 (-110)

Player Prop: Michael Pittman Jr. Any Time Touchdown (+175)

Pittman is the clear number one option in the Colts' passing offense and leads them with a 30.7% target share, 33.9% air yards share, 97.1% snap rate, 97.5% routes run on dropbacks, and most importantly, a massive 38.6% red zone target share. That red zone target share is 16% higher than the next-highest player on the Colts, which is why it's rather surprising to see him with so few touchdowns this season.

Kenyatta Storin, Editor

Side: San Francisco 49ers -2.5 (-118)

It doesn't necessarily feel great to pick a road favorite over a team that's 10-1, but this spread could be justified. According to our power rankings, the 49ers rank second, whereas the Eagles are seventh. While that might seem strange at first, Philadelphia's needed to win a lot of close games to reach their record -- not all of which have come against the best competition. Most notably in this matchup, the 49ers come in with numberFire's top-ranked adjusted offense, and they might be able to exploit an Eagles defense that's just 18th.

Total: Los Angeles Chargers at New England Patriots Under 40.5 (-115)

Player Prop: Jahmyr Gibbs Over 26.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Aidan Cotter, Writer

Side: San Francisco 49ers -2.5 (-118)

Total: Miami Dolphins at Washington Commanders Over 49.5 (-110)

Over Washington's last five games, the total has ended at 69, 37, 55, 50, and 55 points. The Commanders have numberFire's worst schedule-adjusted overall and pass defense while the 'Fins rank third in both adjusted Net Expected Points (NEP) per play and adjusted passing NEP per play. There's an outside chance Miami hits this over by themselves, but Washington's 18.6-point-per-game average at home should be more than enough to push it to at least 50.

Player Prop: Sam Howell Over 39.5 Pass Attempts (-108)

Zack Bussiere, Writer

Side: Los Angeles Chargers -5.5 (-105)

Total: Denver Broncos at Houston Texans Under 47.5 (-110)

Player Prop: Rachaad White Over 91.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-114)

White enters Week 13 in the best form of his young career. After a slow start to the season, White's production increased in Week 7, and he hasn't looked back. Since Week 7, White is averaging 98.8 combined rushing and receiving yards per game. Alongside Mike Evans, the Buccaneers' offense runs through White, and in Week 13, he will face a Carolina Panthers' run defense ranked 32nd in numberFire's schedule-adjusted metrics. numberFire's projections have White at 80.0 rushing yards and 19.0 receiving yards for this contests -- a total above 91.5.

Gabriel Santiago, Writer

Side: Denver Broncos +3.5 (-122)

Total: Detroit Lions at New Orleans Saints Over 46.5 (-115)

Detroit has been thoroughly impressive this year -- but particularly on offense. Veteran quarterback Jared Goff (67.9% completion clip) has played efficiently, operating the league's seventh-best scoring unit at 26.7 PPG in 2023. Skill group players Amon-Ra St. Brown, David Montgomery, Jahmyr Gibbs and Sam LaPorta offer high-end tenacity and athleticism. Across the field, the Saints have plenty of ballers in their own right: Alvin Kamara, Chris Olave, Michael Thomas, and Taysom Hill. Against the set total of 46.5, I am confident this collective bunch can go over that number on the Superdome's fast surface.

Player Prop: A.J. Brown Any Time Touchdown (+130)

Annie Nader, Writer

Side: Los Angeles Chargers -5.5 (-105)

Total: Kansas City Chiefs at Green Bay Packers Over 42.5 (-106)

Player Prop: Rachaad White Over 15.5 Rush Attempts (-114)

The Carolina Panthers allow 29.6 rush attempts per game (fifth-most in NFL), and Rachaad White is averaging 16 carries over his last four games. White had his best game of the season last week, rushing for a season-high 100 yards -- including a 38-yard breakaway. There’s not a whole lot of competition for carries in Tampa Bay, and White should play a big role in exploiting Carolina’s worst-ranked rush D. A late-game lead for the Bucs adds some decent volume to White’s rush attempts potential, as well.

Nick Vazquez, Writer

Side: Indianapolis Colts -1.5 (-105)

Total: Kansas City Chiefs at Green Bay Packers Over 42.5 (-106)

Player Prop: Josh Downs Over 4.5 Receptions (-132)

Downs was inefficient last week, but still would have cleared this number. He caught five of his 13 targets against Tampa Bay, which was his first game returning to full health. The Colts may pass even more this week, as the Titans' have the 30th ranked pass defense in numberFire's metrics. Indy will also be without Jonathan Taylor in this game, which also should encourage them to pass. Gardner Minshew clearly likes targeting Downs, and he should be able to get at least five catches in this game.

Riley Thomas, Writer

Side: Philadelphia Eagles +2.5 (-104)

Total: Arizona Cardinals at Pittsburgh Steelers Under 41.5 (-115)

Player Prop: DeVonta Smith Over 58.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

A.J. Brown cooled off and DeVonta Smith has replaced the production seamlessly with his own hot streak. Smith has reached at least 99 receiving yards in three of his last four games. He’s also averaging 6.5 targets per game during the four-game span while totaling 27.3 receiving yards over expectation (RecYOE) and a 17.5% catch rate over expectation (CROE). numberFire’s Week 13 fantasy projections has Smith with 67.9 receiving yards. Smith could stay hot against the 49ers with the over for his projected receiving yard total of 58.5.

Scott Edwards, Writer

Side: Philadelphia Eagles +2.5 (-104)

Total: Arizona Cardinals at Pittsburgh Steelers Under 41.5 (-115)

The return of Kyler Murray didn't spell all world success for the Arizona Cardinals' offense. Since his return, they've scored over 20 points just once, and that was his first week back. Taking on a tough Pittsburgh Steelers defense that is limiting opposing offenses to a fifth-best 18.6 points per game should mean more struggles are on the way for Arizona. The Steelers' offense has been unimpressive all season, averaging just 16.5 points in their own right. It's hard to count on much scoring in this tilt. Oh, and as of this writing, rain is expected. It could be an ugly game.

Player Prop: Jahmyr Gibbs Over 3.5 Receptions (-138)

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.