NFL Survivor Picks for Week 16: Can We Trust the Packers?

There aren't many more crucial things than nailing your NFL survivor picks, so we're here to help.

Based on numberFire's NFL survivor matrix, here are some of the best NFL survivor picks for Week 16.

NFL Survivor Picks for Week 16

These are the top five teams by expected win probability, according to numberFire's model. All NFL odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.

• Philadelphia Eagles vs. New York Giants
  • After dropping last night's game against the Seattle Seahawks, the Eagles will have extra motivation next Monday as they make a bid for the NFC East title. They enter as a week-high 11.5-point favorites over the Giants, and it's hard to make a case for Tommy DeVito and company hanging with Philly. This isn't the final great week to side with the Birds -- they'll get a home matchup in Week 17 against the Arizona Cardinals -- but the public seems to be keen on going with the Eagles this week. They have a 29.36% pick rate (highest) as of this writing.
• Denver Broncos vs. New England Patriots
  • The Broncos got blown out of the water by the Detroit Lions on Sunday, but they are still fighting for a playoff spot and will get to go up against a Patriots team that has already been eliminated from contention. But the Pats, now backed by Bailey Zappe, won a TNF battle in Week 14 and mostly kept up with Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday, so I wouldn't classify this Christmas Eve matchup as cut and dry. Even still, Denver touts a 72.61% win probability and is favored by 6.5 points.
• Buffalo Bills vs. Los Angeles Chargers
  • The Bills are back after winning consecutive games against Super Bowl threats -- the Dallas Cowboys and Chiefs. With this, Buffalo has forced its way into having the seventh-shortest Super Bowl odds, and now they'll get a shot at the Chargers, a team that was run off the field in a 63-21 beating in last week's TNF game. The Justin Herbert-less Chargers don't boast much offensive prowess, and their third-worst D should allow much to be gained from Josh Allen and Buffalo, who have put 20-plus points on the board in five straight games. If you've held out on the Bills up until this week, now would be a good time to pick them as they're 10.5-point favorites.
• Kansas City Chiefs vs. Las Vegas Raiders
  • The Chiefs are not nearly as impressive as they were last season, but it's never a bad choice to side with them against a Raiders team that is 6-8 and lost to Kansas City by a pair of touchdowns in Week 13. A head coaching change and QB1 adjustments have made Las Vegas a tough-to-predict team -- they followed up a goose-egg in Week 14 with a monstrous 63-point outing last week -- but they've still yet to come out on top against a noteworthy team. The Chiefs are the 10.0-point home favorites on Christmas Day.
• Green Bay Packers vs. Carolina Panthers
  • After a pair of disappointing losses, the Packers are starting to see their playoff hopes dwindle before their eyes, but all is not lost. They'll be granted a matchup with the Panthers, a team that has just two wins and has long been eliminated from playoff contention. numberFire is handing the Pack a 67.42% win probability this week, and I think that may be short-selling Green Bay. The Panthers haven't topped 10 points in two straight games, and despite the obvious falters, namely on defense, Jordan Love and Green Bay can be a booming offensive team and should have a lot to show for against Carolina's weak D.

Digging Deeper

Have you already used all the teams mentioned above? Here are some other options.

Los Angeles Rams

The Rams were a fan-favorite with survivor picks last week, rewarding 33.19% of pickers (highest Week 15 pick rate, via Yahoo) with a 28-20 win over the Washington Commanders.

But if you've yet to side with the Rams, now could be a good time to give them a nod, especially if the aforementioned teams are already off your board.

Los Angeles currently has -132 playoff odds and will go up against a New Orleans Saints team that also has postseason hopes, with +104 odds. This NFC battle is one of the more noteworthy Week 16 games that will have major bearing on how the playoff landscape will shape up.

The Rams are the 4.5-point home favorite against the Saints this Thursday night. New Orleans has the fifth-ranked schedule-adjusted defense and has held their last two opponents to just six points, albeit against the Panthers and Giants.

But the Rams have enough firepower on offense to give New Orleans a tougher time than they are used to. Matthew Stafford -- with the help of Kyren Williams, Puka Nacua, and Cooper Kupp -- has the Rams averaging 33.0 points across their last four games.

When Kupp returned from injury in Week 5 to make his season debut, it looked as though he wouldn't miss a beat. His first two games of the season resulted in a pair of 100-plus yard outings, but in the six games that followed, Kupp failed to eclipse 50 yards in any of them. But we've seen some ultra-encouraging signs of late from the former Super Bowl MVP. In his last two games, Kupp has delivered a pair of 100-plus yard, one-touchdown efforts.

Kupp, Nacua, and Williams are a scary trio of offensive weapons, and they will look to threaten what the Saints do best -- holding opponents to low-scoring games.

LA's defense is somewhat concerning. They have the 13th-worst schedule-adjusted D and allow the 13th-most points per game (22.1). However, they fare better at home, permitting just 20.1 points at SoFi Stadium (15th-fewest). Plus, they allow a respectable 52.38% red zone scoring percentage (12th-lowest), which should pair nicely against the Saints, who struggle with just a 45.83% red zone scoring percentage on the road (fifth-lowest).

numberFire gives the Rams a 65.8% win probability on Thursday night, making them a solid survivor pick.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your