NFL Season-Long Player Prop Betting: Garrett Wilson Is Primed for a Big Year

Garrett Wilson, the reigning AP Offensive Rookie of the Year, finds himself with a massive upgrade at the quarterback position for his second season in the league. After spending his debut campaign toiling away with a combination of Zach Wilson, Joe Flacco, Mike White, and Chris Streveler, Garrett Wilson will now be catching passes from four-time MVP, Aaron Rodgers.

The NFL futures market on the FanDuel Sportsbook has Wilson’s receiving yardage total set at an over/under of 1,125.5 yards. As a rookie, he caught 83 of his 147 targets (56.5%) for 1,103 yards and 4 scores. A target of 1,125.5 yards seems within reach from that perspective

Green Bay Packers, East

While sometimes a change of scenery or surroundings can lead to quarterbacks producing different outcomes, Rodgers’ situation in 2023 should look relatively familiar to the veteran. In Green Bay, he played in Matt LaFleur’s offensive system from 2019-2022. He played with Nathaniel Hackett in three of those seasons (including both of his recent MVP seasons) and will continue to play under Hackett’s guidance with the New York Jets in 2023.

It’s also worth noting that other Jets' players should be familiar with Hackett’s offensive scheme, after playing under Matt LaFleur’s brother, Mike LaFleur, as their offensive coordinator for the past two seasons. This should be a far more seamless transition for all parties than the disaster we watched unfold with Russell Wilson, Nathaniel Hackett, and the Denver Broncos last season.

Considering that Rodgers will be playing in a relatively familiar environment, it’s worth taking a look at the receiving numbers his offenses produced over the past few seasons. His first three seasons under Matt LaFleur in Green Bay all look pretty similar. Rodgers heavily targeted his top receiver, Davante Adams, while the remaining starting receivers averaged about 30-45 yards per game. Adams averaged 92.8 yards per game and was one of the most productive wide receivers in the entire league during that span of time.

The 2022 season was a little different. The Packers traded Adams to the Las Vegas Raiders during the offseason, and none of the team’s remaining receivers elevated themselves to the WR1-status that Adams had earned previously. Rodgers’ top receiver last year was Allen Lazard, who averaged 52.5 receiving yards per game in 2022. 52.5 yards was certainly an increase over Lazard’s average of 35.1 yards per game in the previous three seasons but were a far cry from the 92.8 yards Adams averaged in that role.

Lazard will likely return to his supporting receiver role in 2023 as a member of the Jets, while Garrett Wilson takes over the WR1 gig previously occupied by Davante Adams.

A Blossoming WR1

Wilson doesn’t need to become Davante Adams -- one of the best receivers in recent history -- to beat 1,125.5 receiving yards in 2023. But it certainly helps that he’ll be stepping into the “Davante Adams role” in an Aaron Rodgers-led offense.

Adams was the definition of a target hog in Green Bay between 2019-21; his target shares of 30.3%, 33.9%, and 31.6% ranked third, first, and second in the league respectively in those seasons.

Having a top receiver is also a function of the LaFleur/Hackett offense. Between 2019 and 2021, Adams drew the most, second-most, and fourth-most targets on screens in the league. Those types of manufactured targets can greatly boost a receiver’s production and should skew heavily toward Wilson in the Jets’ 2023 offense.

It’s not hard to envision Wilson taking a massive leap as a player in 2023. His primary quarterback in 2022, Zach Wilson, was arguably the worst quarterback in the league last season. He was dead last in completion percentage (54.5%), second-worst in touchdown rate (2.5%), and sixth-worst in interception rate (2.9%). Rodgers will be a massive upgrade over Zach Wilson.

We did see what Garrett Wilson could accomplish with even mediocre quarterback play, though. He played in eight games without Zach Wilson at quarterback, averaging 82 receiving yards per game in those outings. That would be more than enough to eclipse 1,125.5 yards in a 17-game season.

Sketching Out the 2023 Season

In a 17-game season, Wilson would have to average 66.2 yards per game to beat his 1,125.5-yard prop. That’s an achievable mark and one that 20 receivers eclipsed during the 2022 NFL season.

However, injuries are unavoidable in the NFL, and each missed game makes 1,125.5 yards more difficult to achieve. Here’s how many yards Wilson would have to average per game if he missed time in his second season, as well as the number of NFL receivers that hit those yards per game mark in 2022:

Based on the above chart, things start to get pretty dicey once receivers miss more than just a couple of games. Wilson basically can’t miss more than 3 or 4 games and expect to exceed 1,125.5 yards, unless he joins the game’s elite echelon of top-tier receivers, like Justin Jefferson, Ja'Marr Chase, Tyreek Hill, Davante Adams, and Cooper Kupp.

Wilson won’t need to improve much in his second season to hit 1,126 yards if he stays healthy for the entire season. His 64.9 receiving yards per game in 2022 were just shy of the 66.2-yard mark he’d need to hit his prop. The upgrade at quarterback should be more than enough to get him an extra yard-and-a-half in 2023.

Each missed game lowers his odds of reaching that total, while any improvements you project for the former first-round pick can counterbalance a missed game or two. No matter which side of the prop you personally lean towards, the 2022 Offensive Rookie of the Year will be one of the more exciting players to watch during the 2023 season.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.