NFL

NFL Season-Long Futures Betting: Joe Burrow Can Cruise Past His Touchdown Prop

Tom Vecchio
Tom Vecchio@Tom_Vecchio1
NFL Season-Long Futures Betting: Joe Burrow Can Cruise Past His Touchdown Prop

With training camp quickly approaching, it's time to take a look at some season-long player props for the NFL. We'll start with one of the best quarterbacks in the league, Joe Burrow of the Cincinnati Bengals.

Burrow has ascended to a high level in three short years in the league but this is only the beginning for him. Burrow's season-long passing touchdown prop total sits at 32.5 (-112), and this season is all about the over. With the talent surrounding him in the Bengals' offense, the path to production is very clear.

The NFL season awards betting odds market has Burrow tied with Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen at +700 to win the AP NFL MVP award in 2023. He's expected to be among the elite quarterbacks in the league, and this is a great starting point for where we should see his production this season.

The Bengal King

Burrow's first three seasons in the NFL have been successful from both a personal and team perspective. A trip to the Super Bowl in 2021 and an AFC Championship game in 2022 isn't too shabby after missing a large portion of the 2020 season due to an ACL injury.

A total of 10 games and 16 touchdowns in 2020 -- his rookie season -- don't provide much insight into the quarterback Burrow is today. In 2021, Burrown didn't just take a step forward; it was a massive leap.

Burrow amassed 34 touchdowns in 2021 and 35 touchdowns in 2022. More importantly, his touchdown rate -- 5.9% in 2021 and 5.5% in 2022 -- had him sitting in the top seven of the league in both years.

This shouldn't come as a surprise since the Bengals have moved to a pass-first offense with Burrow at the helm. The Bengals finished 13th in pass-play percentage during the 2021 season. They were fifth in 2020.

Cincinnati head coach Zac Taylor has entrusted Burrow with the offense, and it has led to success across the board.

It certainly helps that the Bengals have a trio of wide receivers that make Burrow's life a bit easier. Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd are the class of the NFL and sit atop PFF's team wide receiver rankings for 2023.

The skill around Burrow doesn't stop there. Add in Joe Mixon and Irv Smith Jr., and the Bengals are sitting with one of the best offenses in the entire league.

However, it's not all sunshine and rainbows for Burrow and the Bengals. Their offense line still needs to take some steps forward. The number of sacks Burrow has taken over the last two years is a topic of discussion around the NFL. He has been in the top seven of the league for the most sacks in each of the last two seasons.

More sacks lead to fewer chances to throw the ball, which leads to fewer touchdowns, which is not what we want to see to bet over 32.5 passing touchdowns this season.

While things haven't been great on that front, there's reason for optimism going forward. PFF has the Bengals' offensive line ranked 17th going into 2023. That seems very mediocre, but that ranking is up 11 spots from the final rankings of 2022.

If the offensive line is going to be improved compared to what we saw from them last season, it should allow Burrow to have continued success under center.

Looking Ahead to 2023

As noted above, Burrow's odds to win the NFL MVP award are +700, tied with Mahomes and Allen. Why is this important? If Burrow is a legitimate contender to win the award, his season-long stats would likely back that up.

A quarterback has won the NFL MVP award for 10 straight seasons. In those 10 years, the fewest amount of passing touchdowns the MVP winner had was 32 ( Tom Brady in 2017).

If Burrow is going to win or contend for the MVP award as the odds would suggest, he is going to need at least 33 passing touchdowns.

Finding correlation between season-long props and award markets can help lead us to logical conclusions. Joe Burrow is an MVP favorite, thus, he is expected to have a strong season resulting in over 32.5 passing touchdowns.


The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.