NFL Regular Season Total Passing Yards Odds Update: Week 11

Who doesn't love watching quarterbacks do what they do best -- pass the football? In a league dominated by elite quarterback play, it's always fun to monitor which passers chuck it the furthest and most often compared to their peers.

That's what makes the Regular Season Passing Yards Leader race an exciting one to follow. The race has been won by a different quarterback in each of the past five years, meaning it's really anyone's for the taking -- especially after the recent retirements of perennial frontrunners like Tom Brady, Drew Brees, and Ben Roethlisberger.

This year's race is a tight one. As you can see from the Regular Season Passing Yards Leader odds below (courtesy of the FanDuel Sportsbook), there are still a ton of quarterbacks live to take home the title.

The Frontrunners

Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins

Leading the pack with +350 odds to take home the title is Miami Dolphins stud Tua Tagovailoa, whose 289.9 passing yards per game ranks second-best among players still in the running for the award (Kirk Cousins' 291.4 average would rank second if the veteran hadn't suffered a season-ending injury). It's the second straight season we've seen Tagovailoa posting strong passing game numbers, so it's no surprise that his consistent production in Mike McDaniel's passing attack has earned him the top spot here.

Tagovailoa's offense boasts two of the top receivers in the game in Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, and it's clear that the team wants to pass the ball as often as possible. That should keep the fourth-year quarterback in the running to lead the league in passing yards all the way down to the wire -- assuming he can stay healthy.

A big storyline from the 2022 campaign was Tagovailoa's struggles with injuries -- the Dolphins' passing game fell off its torrid pace as Tagovailoa's injuries mounted last year. Health might be the biggest obstacle in Tagovailoa's path to a passing yards title, but he has fortunately avoided that obstacle so far this season.

C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans

Who would have thought that the player with the second-best odds to lead the league in passing yards would be a rookie? Houston Texans second-overall pick C.J. Stroud has caught fire in his debut NFL season and currently leads the league in passing yards per game (291.8).

We are in relatively uncharted waters here, so it's fair to question whether the former Ohio State Buckeyes signal-caller can sustain his torrential production. He's pacing to hit almost 5,000 passing yards in his rookie campaign and is well on track to set the record (currently held by Andrew Luck's 4,374 yards) for rookie season passing yards. We'll be rooting for the promising rookie as he closes out his exciting debut season.

Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs

Is Patrick Mahomes ever not in contention to lead the league in passing yards in any given season? The two-time MVP is having a sub-par season by his own lofty standards and yet is still one of the frontrunners to finish 2023 with the most regular-season passing yards.

The Kansas City Chiefs star's lofty odds seem slightly inflated due to his extensive track record of excellence. His 271.3 passing yards per game is the sixth-most in the league, trailing the solid paces of some of his contemporaries with longer odds to finish as the passing yards leader. It never feels great to fade a historically great quarterback, but Mahomes has ground to make up over the back half of the season to keep himself in contention.

Hot on Their Heels

The three frontrunners aren't exactly running away with the race right now, and there are plenty of other contenders for the title. Two of those players who stand out relative to the pack are Washington Commanders sophomore Sam Howell and Detroit Lions veteran Jared Goff.

Howell's 278.3 passing yards per game is the fourth-best among qualified passers. The Commanders' offense leads the league in pass attempts per game, which gives the young passer a bit of a leg up relative to his peers. Total passing yards is a volume-based statistic, so getting more chances to put up numbers than his competition gives him an edge. Still, Howell has been a little inconsistent throughout the year, so it remains to be seen whether or not he can sustain his strong production through to the end of the year.

Goff, on the other hand, is no stranger to lofty passing production with three seasons of 4,000 or more passing yards under his belt. He's been spearheading the Lions' ferocious offense this season and ranks third in passing yards per game (286.6) despite his seventh-strongest +1400 odds to take home the title. That discrepancy between his odds and his production might make him a bit of a value at +1400.

One for the Road

If you're looking for a "long shot," consider Dak Prescott and his +1600 odds to take the title this year.

The face of the Dallas Cowboys franchise started the season relatively slowly but has caught fire in recent weeks -- he has averaged a ridiculous 338.5 passing yards per game in his last four contests. The Cowboys have seemed increasingly willing to turn away from the ground game, so Prescott's strong recent numbers could be here to stay.

The Cowboys' upcoming schedule works in Prescott's favor, as well. The Cowboys aren't really slated to face any more elite defenses this year and have two upcoming dates with the Commanders, whose defense has allowed more passing yards than any other defense in the league.

They are also scheduled to play an assortment of some of the leagues' best offenses, including offenses led by other quarterbacks in contention for the passing yards title. That could lead to some extremely favorable game scripts for Prescott down the stretch and could snowball into a title by the end of the year.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.