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NFL Playoff Futures: Who Will Lead the Postseason in Passing Yards?
With the NFL playoffs here, so too is a reset on future betting.
If you weren't able to correctly predict this year's passing yardage leader (Tua Tagovailoa with a whopping 4,624), perhaps you'll have better luck when looking at who will lead the postseason in passing yardage.
One year ago, Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow cashed this Playoff Specials market by compiling 721 passing yards over three starts. Prior to Burrow, Matthew Stafford (2021), Tom Brady (2020) and Patrick Mahomes (2019) were other recent winners.
Given the modern postseason layout, you'd be wise to look for a player who will get at least three contests to build lofty stat totals. Of course, that can be tricky to decipher with powerhouses like the Baltimore Ravens and San Francisco 49ers beginning the playoffs with a bye.
Let's take a look at the odds for Most Playoff Passing Yards and dive into some of the best options on the board.
All NFL odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.
*Denotes market winner in previous postseason
2023-24 NFL Most Playoff Passing Yards
Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys
Arguably, Dallas Cowboys signal-caller Dak Prescott just produced his most dominant NFL season on record. In his eighth professional year, the 2016 OROY was powered behind his best TD-INT ratio (36-9) of his career.
His 4,516 passing yards (on 8.2 adjusted YPA) this year was the second-highest total of his career. If you want to make a play on a quarterback who is seemingly locked in, the Mississippi State alum could be your guy -- Prescott's completion clip of 69.5% was a personal best.
FanDuel Sportsbook has the Cowboys quarterback as the favorite to lead the playoffs in passing yards. Not only is Prescott outputting great football, but he has the benefit of performing at home -- within the friendly confines of "Jerry World" -- in the opening round. Other games this weekend will have to battle inclement weather, but not Dallas, who is laying more than a touchdown versus the Green Bay Packers on Wild Card Weekend.
If you like Prescott to lead the postseason in passing, you should have a look at FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL Playoffs GB-DAL Same Game Parlay. Along with three other legs from Sunday (1/14) afternoon's contest at AT&T Stadium, this SGP is led by Prescott throwing for at least 300 passing yards (see site for stipulations).
Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers
Less than a year removed from Tommy John surgery, Brock Purdy just finished one of the top quarterbacking seasons in San Francisco 49ers' history -- obviously, that is saying something.
In 16 games played this year, Purdy passed for 4,280 yards (267.5 YPG), which was the highest single-season mark for any S.F. player ever. From there, Purdy's 9.6 YPA led the league while his 72.8 QBR was also the NFL's best in 2023.
Of course, Purdy has the athletes and scheme to run away with this postseason yardage prop. When delivering the ball accurately and on time, San Francisco has several dynamic skill players who can (and will) pile on yards after the catch. This has been a contributing factor to how Purdy paces the league in completions of 40 or more yards (14).
Undoubtedly, Mr. Relevant and the Niners will be eager to whip the football around the mild-weathered Levi's Stadium, but the Red and Gold will be without a game in the postseason's opening week.
The Faithful in Northern California are loving the extra rest, but as mentioned, it doesn't always bode well for compiling betting markets such as this. Perhaps San Francisco can get that missed game back by reaching Super Bowl LVIII (FanDuel Sportsbook has the 49ers priced as favorites to go all the way).
Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills
After another high-volume season for Josh Allen of the Buffalo Bills, the Wyoming alum finished top-five in passing yards (4,544) for the first time since 2020. Overall, Allen has now gone over the 4,000-yard threshold in four years consecutively.
His rushing abilities will do him no good in this market, but it is still tough to not like Allen here. However, being that his next game might be played in a trademark Western New York snowstorm, Allen may have an uphill battle. Still, "The Winter Soldier" has the sort of arm strength that can stave off natural conditions (to an extent). Either way, with Bills Mafia hosting the Pittsburgh Steelers, there is a 40% chance of snow in Orchard Park.
On Wednesday prior to Super Wild Card Weekend, FanDuel Sportsbook has Buffalo as a double-digit favorite -- the largest of the opening round -- over Pittsburgh sans T.J. Watt (knee). So, if anything, you can likely count on Allen continuing on to the Divisional Playoff, further elevating his numbers.
Still, this is the NFL -- nothing is guaranteed.
Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs
The 2019 winner in this market -- almighty Patrick Mahomes -- seems to be down, but he and the Kansas City Chiefs are certainly not out (well, not yet anyway). A first for Mahomes, the reigning AP Most Valuable Player finished the regular season outside of the top five in passing yardage and touchdowns.
Impressively, "Showtime" Mahomes still managed to complete over 400 passes this year, but his receiving corps notably led the league in drops (44). Of course, drops are something that does not bode well for amassing yards, nor does it for winning playoff games. Can All-Pro tight end Travis Kelce rally the unit as the Chiefs head into Wild Card Weekend?
As alluded to with Josh Allen, Mahomes will be facing harsh conditions on the gridiron this Sunday. Hosting the Miami Dolphins at Arrowhead, the Chiefs are expecting sub-zero temperatures for the game. I don't doubt that Mahomes can go into "Mortal Kombat mode" (finish him!) in extreme weather, but it will be tough to amass many passing yards if his drop-happy receivers can't feel their hands.
To the contrary, perhaps the freezing weather will firm up their fingers. Hey, I've seen stranger things happen. Either way, Mahomes and K.C. are no lock to get by the 'Fins this weekend -- the Chiefs currently show as a four-point home favorite at FanDuel Sportsbook.
If you're betting on any of Saturday, January 13th's NFL playoff action, you can take advantage of FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL Playoffs No-Sweat Same Game Parlay. Check the promotions page for more information.
Looking for the latest NFL odds? Head over to FanDuel Sportsbook and check out all of the NFL betting options.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.
