NFL Offensive Player of the Year Betting: Josh Allen Is a Frontrunner With the Betting Odds of a Sleeper

The Buffalo Bills have been just on the precipice of greatness since the breakout of quarterback Josh Allen. Allen’s emergence as an elite quarterback helped the Bills take over the vacated title of AFC East champions after Tom Brady left the division, and they’ve been mainstays in the playoffs ever since.

But just like the elusive Lombardi trophy, awards for impressive individual play have so far evaded Josh Allen’s grasp. Apart from a couple of Pro Bowl nods, the talented young quarterback’s mantle sits awardless. He’s been close, though. He was the runner-up for the MVP award for his outstanding 2020 season and came up third in MVP voting in 2022. Likewise, he’s had fourth- and eighth-place finishes in those years for the Offensive Player of the Year awards (OPOY).

Heading into the 2023 season, the NFL MVP betting odds market has Allen with +700 odds to take home the trophy this season, tying him with Joe Burrow and Patrick Mahomes as the true frontrunners for the award.

Allen’s strong track record over the past few seasons should be reason enough for his league-best odds to win the MVP award, and we outlined his case for the award here earlier in the offseason. What’s interesting, though, is that while Allen has the best MVP odds of any player in the league, his OPOY odds trail those of his peers.

FanDuel Sportsbook’s Offensive Player of the Year betting odds market has Allen with +2800 odds to win the award this year. That makes him the 13th-most likely player to win the award this season, putting him behind quarterbacks like Lamar Jackson (+2200) and Justin Fields (+2200) – who have longer odds than Allen to win the MVP award – in the race for the OPOY award.

This begs an interesting question for bettors: is Allen truly more likely to take home the MVP award for the 2023 season than he is to win the OPOY award? Or is the difference between his MVP and OPOY betting odds something that can be leveraged by savvy bettors? Let’s take a look.

The Anatomy of an Award Winner

The biggest difference between the MVP award and the OPOY award is that the MVP award usually goes to the best quarterback on the best team in the NFL while the OPOY award goes to the players with the greatest individual accomplishments.

Basically, quarterbacks tend to have a pretty massive leg up when it comes to the MVP award. The playing field is closer to level across all offensive skill positions when it comes to the OPOY award.

Since 2000, quarterbacks have won all but four of the possible MVP awards. They have a pretty firm, monopolistic grasp on the award. By comparison, quarterbacks have “only” won the OPOY award nine separate times in that same span of time. Historically, the OPOY award has had a heavy skew toward running backs, and in recent years, the wide receiver position has garnered significant attention. Three of the last four winners have been wide receivers.

That said, the two awards have shared some overlapping winners over the years. We’ve seen 10 players win both awards in a single year since 2000. While it was more common towards the beginning of the 2000s, each of Patrick Mahomes, Matt Ryan, Cam Newton, and Peyton Manning won both awards in the same year over the last 10 years. In other words, being a favorite for the MVP award doesn’t necessarily preclude you from also winning the OPOY award.

In the eyes of this author, if Matt Ryan can win both awards in a single season, there is no reason Josh Allen isn’t capable of doing the same. Allen has simply been too productive in too many ways for too many seasons in a row to count him out for either award, and his depressed OPOY odds relative to his MVP odds make him an appealing bet at +2800 -- and we’ve barely even touched on what makes him such an appealing candidate for both awards, too.

Josh Allen is an Offensive Engine

As with most good MVP candidates, Allen’s case for an MVP award is bolstered by the strength of the team around him. In addition to his own elite offensive capabilities, the Bills’ defense has been one of the stronger units in the league over the past few seasons, and the team has won the AFC East for three straight years.

Allen’s case for the OPOY award rests more squarely upon his own shoulders, but that shouldn’t be a deterrent for potential bettors. He has been one of the most prolific passers in recent years and has compounded that with top-notch production as a rusher. Over the past two seasons alone, he has compiled 1,525 rushing yards and 13 rushing touchdowns, putting him just behind the truly elite rushing quarterbacks (at least in terms of rushing production).

As a passer, Allen has averaged 4,591 yards, 37 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions per 17 games since his 2020 breakout. Combined with his rushing numbers, he’s crested 5,000 yards from scrimmage and 40 touchdowns in each of the past 3 seasons. Even among the league’s best quarterbacks and playmakers, few can actually match Allen’s insane offensive output in recent years.

With Allen at the helm, the Bills’ offense has ranked second, third, and second in total points scored over the last three years. They’ve accomplished that feat without a truly noteworthy running game by having Allen play as both their quarterback and as their best ball carrier -- especially near the goal line. He has been an unstoppable force when it comes to putting points up on the board and should be a perennial OPOY and MVP candidate for as long as he keeps that up.

As we mentioned earlier, his production over the past few seasons has already earned him some attention as an MVP and OPOY candidate. He’s one of the very few players in the league whose median outcome seasons put him in legitimate contention for awards. Other players need things to break right for them or to break records to earn consideration; Allen puts his name in the runnings for these awards by maintaining his own status quo. That gives him a nearly unparalleled floor relative to his peers when it comes to his ability to take home an MVP or OPOY award.

The Breakout: Part II

Allen doesn’t necessarily need to improve as a player to put his name in the conversations come awards season, but what if he actually does get better again this season? Most readers will probably be aware of the trajectory of Allen’s career; he went from a relatively inaccurate collegiate passer to a mistake-prone starter in the NFL before finally emerging as one of the game’s elite players in 2020. His development into stardom was the stuff of legends. Yet somehow, there’s still even more room for growth.

The Bills’ offense stagnated at points during the 2022 season -- even if Allen’s season-long numbers don’t really reflect that. Part of the issue stemmed from the team’s difficulty in getting offensive production outside of Josh Allen and his strong connection with star wide receiver Stefon Diggs.

The team sought to address that issue in the 2022 NFL Draft, selecting tight end Dalton Kincaid in the first round of the draft to “solve the middle of the field”. In a draft class that featured four receivers that earned first-round draft capital, it was Kincaid that earned Pro Football Focus’ top receiving grade (a 91.8 score) for his performance in the 2022 NCAA season. He may have played the tight end position, but Kincaid was almost the entirety of Utah’s offense last year.

Having an elite pass-catcher in the middle of the field should provide a huge boost to Allen’s options in the passing game -- especially compared to the production the team eked out of their slot players a season ago. We typically expect quarterbacks to thrive on short and intermediate passes while playing efficiently in the deep game; Allen was kind of the opposite last year. He and Diggs have had an excellent connection down the field since they began playing together, but the Bills’ short game left much to be desired in 2022. Kincaid should hopefully be able to help Allen sink a few more layups in the passing game and extend drives.

It’s almost surprising that Allen has not yet had a season with 40 passing touchdowns, but that’s well within the range of outcomes for him for the upcoming season – especially if Kincaid can prove himself to be an asset in the red zone.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.