NFL MVP Odds Update: Dak Prescott Shines in Primetime

It is wild to think that we have already completed 14 weeks of the 2023-24 NFL regular season.

To heighten the adversity across the league, we are dealing with a rather tight MVP race. Entering NFL Week 15, we are seeing some new frontrunners compared to previous seasons, such as Dak Prescott of the Dallas Cowboys and Brock Purdy of the San Francisco 49ers.

The Cowboys and 49ers are both storied, cornerstone franchises of the NFL. Still, neither side has boasted a league MVP since Hall of Famer Steve Young was named Most Valuable Player in 1994 (Cowboys HOF Emmitt Smith won the award a season prior in 1993).

The top-two MVP candidates from 2022 -- winner Patrick Mahomes and runner-up Jalen Hurts -- have both fallen in this market after taking tough losses in Week 14. Still, both quarterbacks there are still very much in the running.

With no action until Thursday, let's dig into the latest NFL MVP odds with an eye on jumps and drops.

All NFL odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.

*Denotes 2022-23 NFL AP MVP

Notable Jumps

Dak Prescott, QB, Dallas Cowboys

FanDuel Sportsbook Odds: +155

Arguably, Dallas is coming off their best win of the Dak Prescott-era. For the whole country to see, the Cowboys hosted the Philadelphia Eagles on primetime last Sunday, essentially running them right back to Philly. After the 33-13 beatdown, Dallas is now atop the NFC East.

Only a fool could deny that Prescott has been the main reason for the Cowboys' recent success. Since losing terribly in San Francisco earlier in the season, Dallas has buckled down to win seven of their past eight games. Prescott has elevated the offense to 32.4 points per game, which is the NFL's highest clip.

Prescott has never led the NFL in passing touchdowns by any season's end, but in 2023, he is doing exactly that. The Mississippi State alum has already compiled 28 TDs through the air, which is three more than any other player right now. Certainly, it does not hurt that Prescott is completing passes at a 69.3% clip, showing a 74.6 QBR overall (second-best).

One week ago, Prescott was tied with Purdy in the MVP market. In the only games since, both quarterbacks threw for multiple scores while earning another win.

So, why is Prescott ahead now? Well, the fact that his recent performance was nationally televised could be a reason. However, the eighth-year signal-caller will end the regular season on a tough stretch, facing three potential playoff teams over the final month.

Brock Purdy, QB, San Francisco 49ers

FanDuel Sportsbook Odds: +165

Brock Purdy continues to yield his share of doubters, yet the second-year quarterback continues to deliver high-quality plays. By now, his story is well-regarded. Taken with the final selection (No. 262 overall) of the 2022 NFL Draft, Purdy has since thrown 38 touchdowns in only 22 regular season games played. If last year was the teaser, "Mr. Relevant" is now giving us the whole feature presentation.

In 2023, Purdy has started all 13 contests for San Francisco, accumulating the NFL's highest QBR (74.7). For his most recent showing, Purdy had an explosive game versus the division rival Seattle Seahawks. There, the 49ers produced six separate plays of 35 yards or more -- five of those were passes from Purdy while one was a 72-yard run by Christian McCaffrey.

After a while, it is sort of puzzling to see others convince themselves that Purdy is simply a game manager. His 25 TD passes this year is tied for second, and his completion clip shines at 70.2% and paces all NFL starters.

At +165 odds, Purdy is very near Prescott on the MVP oddsboard. That is quite impressive, especially once you consider that the 49ers' quarterback began the year with 40-to-1 odds.

When surveying both upcoming schedules, the 49ers seem to have a softer end to the regular season. Other than a Christmas night tilt with the Baltimore Ravens, San Francisco's remaining competition is all under .500 right now.

Steep Drops

Jalen Hurts, QB, Philadelphia Eagles

FanDuel Sportsbook Odds: +1000

On the heels of suffering losses in back-to-back weeks, Jalen Hurts and the Eagles are dealing with their first bit of adversary since Super Bowl LVII. In both recent games, Philadelphia failed to score at least 20 points, which is rather alarming because those contests were against fellow NFC contenders.

After accounting for 35 total touchdowns last season, Hurts managed to end the year as MVP runner-up. At present, Hurts has been solid but not quite as efficient. His interception rate of 2.3% is an entire percentage point higher than last year (1.3%).

Naturally, Hurts not playing as sharply in this campaign has contributed to a drop in the team's offensive numbers. Philly produced 28.1 PPG (third) in 2022, whereas the Eagles are at 24.7 PPG this season.

Philadelphia is behind Dallas in the divisional standings. In terms of Hurts winning MVP this year, his chances will take a huge dent if the Birds cannot take back the top NFC East spot. For reference, the most recent year in which a quarterback won league MVP but not his division was Peyton Manning in 2008.

Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs

FanDuel Sportsbook Odds: +1600

For what seems like the first time in his NFL career, Patrick "Showtime" Mahomes actually lost his cool.

The Kansas City Chiefs are fresh off a narrow loss at home to the Buffalo Bills. In that contest, Travis Kelce nearly produced an all-time game-winning touchdown, but an offsides call against Chiefs receiver Kadarius Toney brought back the would-be miracle. The penalty sent Mahomes toward the officials in a fit of passion.

Kansas City's offense appears to be the most inconsistent it's been in Mahomes' six NFL years. The Chiefs are scoring only 22.5 PPG, which is the team's lowest annual figure since 2014. Keep in mind: Mahomes had the offense at 35.3 (2018) and 29.2 (2022) PPG in each of his previous MVP campaigns.

With Aaron Rodgers sidelined this season, Mahomes is the only player active in 2023 to have previously won multiple MVP awards. Even while he is in a down spot, the Chiefs are in line to win the AFC West for a record eighth consecutive year. Simply, Mahomes could still get hot enough down the stretch to increase his stock here.

If -- or when -- Mahomes wins a third league MVP, he will join an all-time elite list; only six NFL players have accomplished that feat. Four of those players are already in the Pro Football Hall of Fame, while the other two are Rodgers and Tom Brady.

Entering Week 8 of this year, Mahomes was labeled as short as +240 odds to win MVP. At the moment, he has inflated to +1600. Of course, it is not every day that you see Mahomes with a listing that lengthy.

Honorable Mention

Trending Up

• Josh Allen +1400

Falling Down

• Russell Wilson +10000

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.