NFL MVP Betting: Is Jalen Hurts Getting Enough Respect?

For a quarterback that took his team to the Super Bowl just a few months ago, it almost feels like Jalen Hurts isn’t getting enough respect. The Philadelphia Eagles' quarterback has the fifth-shortest odds (+1200) to take home the NFL MVP odds, according to the FanDuel Sportsbook’s Season Awards Betting Odds markets, behind the likes of Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, and Justin Herbert.

The Eagles themselves were an absolute powerhouse last year, finishing with an NFL-best 14-3 record in the regular season. With Jalen Hurts at the helm, the team dropped just two games all year: a fluky Week 10 game against the Washington Commanders, and a nail-biter to the Kansas City Chiefs in the Super Bowl.

It almost seems like Hurts’ performance last year has been discounted due to the narrative of how good the Eagles were, but believing that would be ignoring that we saw what their offense would look like without him.

The Eagles Were Not The Eagles Without Jalen Hurts

Hurts suffered a shoulder injury in the waning minutes of the team’s win over the Chicago Bears in Week 15. With a playoff spot and first-round bye all but locked up, the team opted to play it safe with Hurts’ health and elected to start the next two games with Gardner Minshew as their starting quarterback.

The team lost both of those games with Minshew. The first loss came at the hands of the Dallas Cowboys, during which the Minshew-led offense scored a respectable 27 points. The offense sputtered in the following game, mustering just 10 points against the lowly New Orleans Saints in a 10-20 loss in Week 17. They could have been stuck at just three total points were it not for a 78-yard score from A.J. Brown. It was a poor enough showing that the team went back to a banged-up Hurts for their season finale in an effort to clinch their first-round bye.

Even the Eagles’ defense didn’t look the same without Hurts in those games. The 40 points they allowed to the Cowboys’ offense was the most they gave up to a single team across the entire season. And the 20 points they allowed to the Saints were the third-most that the struggling Saints team had scored over their final nine games of the season.

The lack of a productive offense led to the Eagles getting dominated by the Cowboys and Saints in time of possession, giving their defense less rest in between drives. Having Hurts around to keep offensive drives alive, and to milk the clock when necessary, was a critical component of the synergistic relationship the Eagles’ offense and defense shared during the season.

Most Versatile Player

The Eagles finished the season with 477 points scored, the second-most in the entire league behind only MVP Mahomes’ Chiefs and their 496 points. Their method of scoring those points was arguably the most dynamic in the league, and much of that dynamism stemmed directly from Hurts himself.

In his 14 healthy regular season games, Hurts averaged 8.17 yards per pass attempt – only Tua Tagovailoa had a more efficient rate in his truncated season. But on top of his incredible efficiency as a passer, Hurts was also nigh-unstoppable on the ground. He punched in 13 rushing touchdowns in those games, averaging almost a whole rushing touchdown per contest.

The Eagles found so much success during the 2022 season because of Hurts’ versatility as an offensive weapon. When the ground game wasn’t working, they could lean on Hurts to hit talented pass-catchers like A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert through the air. When defenses prioritized defending the Eagles’ receivers, the team could quickly switch to a ground game with Hurts behind their bruising offensive line.

In Week 8, for example, Hurts connected with Brown for 3 passing touchdowns – each one traveling over 25 yards – before the end of the second quarter. Their passing attack quickly put the game out of reach for the Pittsburgh Steelers. On the flip side, the team turned to Hurts’ legs in a close Week 12 win over the Green Bay Packers, in which Hurts rushed 17 times for 157 rushing yards.

The Tush Push

Hurts’ 6’1”, 225-pound frame -- capable of squatting over 600 pounds -- also enabled the team to use what became known as the “Tush Push”, a play so effective at converting short yardage plays that some teams called for it to be banned after the 2023 season. The team was able to successfully convert an insane 36 of 39 short-yardage opportunities on the play during the season with Hurts under center. This provided them with a massive edge over opposing teams -- with that striking 92.3% success rate -- the Eagles were able to aggressively go for it on their fourth downs.

In addition to keeping drives alive that would otherwise have ended in punts, that edge also allowed the Eagles to turn more field goal opportunities into touchdown drives. Despite scoring the second-most points in the league, the Eagles’ offense attempted the second-fewest field goals (25) in 2023. Hurts made the Eagles’ offense an inevitability in 2022, illustrated further by their 67.8% rate (third in the league) of scoring a touchdown on drives that reached the red zone.

The Eagles allocated most of their 2023 draft capital to the defensive side of the ball, then brought in running backs D'Andre Swift via trade and Rashaad Penny in free agency after letting Miles Sanders walk. Those moves all speak to the sheer confidence the team has in Hurts to keep producing at the level he did in 2022, as well as to the benefit he adds to their rushing game.

Having Hurts as one of the most efficient short-yardage rushers in the league allows the Eagles to give more touches to home-run style running backs. Penny and Swift ranked first and seventh, respectively, in Pro Football Focus’ Breakaway Run Rate, which charts how often a running back generates a play of 15 or more yards. They won’t be asking either of those two explosive-but-injury-prone backs to grind out tough yards between the tackles nearly as often as other teams might, which could lead to more big plays and long touchdowns from the Eagles’ ground game.

Conclusion

Hurts’ unique skill set gives the Eagles’ offense an immensely high floor heading into the 2023 season. As one of the most dynamic players in the NFL, he is well-positioned to guide the team to another NFC East Championship. His ability to thrive as a passer and as a rusher while limiting turnovers is highly conducive to winning football games, something the betting markets believe as well considering their leading +330 odds to win the NFC Championship again in 2023. Hurts has the fifth-shortest odds to win the MVP at +1200 right now, but he could be much closer to the +700 odds Mahomes, Allen, and Burrow share at the top of the MVP race.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.