NFL Betting: Who Will Lead The League In Touchdown Passes?

Seriously, who doesn't love a season-long NFL future based around touchdowns?

In the modern game, there is no shortage of talented quarterbacks and players with mind-blowing arm talent. As such, one of the most enthralling markets to follow is the annual race to throw the most touchdowns over the regular season.

Last year's winner here, reigning MVP Patrick Mahomes, is obviously in the mix again in 2023. Mahomes has already cashed this market twice (2019, 2022) throughout his career -- does he go for three by end of the current campaign?

Regardless, Mahomes is not leading the league is this category right now; that designation currently belongs to AFC East signal-callers Josh Allen and Tua Tagovailoa. With two high-flying offenses there, it will be interesting to see who pulls away.

Prior to Sunday of Week 11, let's dig into the latest lines at FanDuel Sportsbook, keeping an eye on which passers have value to lead the league in touchdowns through the air. Of course, with the recent season-ending news surrounding Joe Burrow (wrist), we are all sad he will not be a part of this year's run.

All NFL odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

*Denotes 2022-23 passing TD leader

NFL Passing Touchdown Leaders

Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills

FanDuel Sportsbook Odds: +300

As your FanDuel Sportsbook market leader for odds to lead the NFL in touchdown passes, Josh Allen (+300) and his Buffalo Bills are currently at a delicate point. As mentioned, Allen does pace the league with 19 tuggs right now, but the Bills have fallen down to 5-5 after 10 weeks of play. From here, which direction will the Wyoming alum trend?

In true gunslinger fashion, Allen also has more interceptions (11) than any other player at the moment. Still, JA17 does show a 72.1 QBR, which is fourth-best in the NFL. Additionally, he has tossed multiple scores in 6 of 10 games this year.

Naturally, there is an elephant in Buffalo's room. Allen's favorite and most talented target -- All-Pro receiver Stefon Diggs -- might not finish the year as a Bill. There is no official trade request, but Diggs has previously expressed frustrations with the offense. From there, it does not help that his brother and fellow NFLer Trevon Diggs has begun to mix the pot.

Allen has never posted the most passing touchdowns after any one season. Personally, his best mark in a single campaign has been 37 scores through the air, which resulted in fifth place back in 2020.

Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs

FanDuel Sportsbook Odds: +400

Currently, Patrick Mahomes is in a three-way tie for fifth place in the TD department with 15, but I think we all know not to count out the two-time Super Bowl champion. As the face of the Kansas City Chiefs (and, really, the NFL at large), Mahomes plays the game with a rare blend of skill, tenacity, poise and uncanny athleticism.

Since entering the league, the Texas Tech alum has essentially been a touchdown machine. Notably, Mahomes chucked 50 scores in his first year as an NFL starter. That is a feat only he, Peyton Manning and Tom Brady have accomplished, and both of the latter men managed it well into their professional careers.

In 2022, "Showtime" showed us that he has no intention of slowing down. En route to his second Lombardi Trophy, Mahomes passed for 41 touchdowns last regular season, leading the league. Fast-forward to now, and FanDuel Sportsbook has him at four-to-one odds to do it for the second consecutive year.

Transparently, Mahomes and the Chiefs are not scoring at the same prolific rate in 2023 (23.1 PPG/13th). There is still high trust and production with All-Pro tight end Travis Kelce, but the rest of the skill group in K.C. lacks stature. It also does not help that the Chiefs' 18 drops this year is tied for most in the NFL.

Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins

FanDuel Sportsbook Odds: +400

Simply, no quarterback was off to a hotter start than Tua Tagovailoa this season. In the face of many doubters, Tagovailoa compiled eight touchdowns and 1,024 passing yards through the first three weeks alone. Since then, Tua still paces the league with an average of 289.9 yards per game (YPG).

A stat everyone in South Florida can appreciate -- Tagovailoa currently has the Miami Dolphins scoring at an NFL-best 31.7 PPG. Of course, I mentioned that the Alabama alum is already tied with Allen for the most passing touchdowns (19) at the moment. That alone makes Tua's +400 odds in this market worth a second look.

To strengthen the case for Miami's quarterback, the 'Fins have plenty of playmakers that can turn a five-yard slant into a 60-yard score. Tyreek Hill is arguably the fastest man in the NFL, showing more touchdown receptions (8) than any other player entering Week 11. Also, Jaylen Waddle, Raheem Mostert and De'Von Achane are home-run hitters in their own right.

Tagovailoa might not have the strongest arm in the league, but he currently has the skill cast and production to cash this market. We shall see if Tua has his way with the Las Vegas Raiders at home this weekend.

Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers

FanDuel Sportsbook Odds: +450

Well, aspects appear to be up and down as per usual for the Los Angeles Chargers, but that is not to say quarterback Justin Herbert has been inconsistent -- he's shown quality stuff in 2023. Despite sitting at 4-5 and seemingly out of potential playoff contention, Herbert has been operating the league's seventh-highest scoring offense at 26.6 PPG.

At 69.7, the Oregon alum currently has the fifth-best QBR. From there, Herbert has thrown for 17 scores, which leaves him tied with Mahomes and Sam Howell for fifth right now. Like all other signal-callers ahead on this list, Herbie has a true No. 1 wide receiver that can help him pile on the tuggs: Keenan Allen. The five-time Pro Bowl wideout has already hauled in 73 receptions in 2023, but will a recent shoulder injury keep Allen sidelined?

Regardless, we know Herbert is going to put up his share of pass attempts. In that category, he lands top 10 in the NFL. When it comes to passing touchdowns, he is still chasing down his personal-best of 38 scores; that came in 2021.

Worth mentioning: Herbert has thrown for three or more touchdowns in three separate contests this season. Simply, he is prone to put up big numbers in any week.

Longshots

• Russell Wilson, Denver Broncos (+1200)
• Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys (+1200)
• Sam Howell, Washington Commanders (+2000)
• Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles (+2500)
• C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans (+2500)
• Jared Goff, Detroit Lions (+2500)
• Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers (+2500)

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.