NFL Betting: What Will Be the Lowest-Scoring Game of the Divisional Round?

Four of this season's top-five offenses, according to numberFire, are preparing for Divisional Round games. Three of the four Divisional matchups have totals over 45.0 points. Genuinely, FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL odds are proposing some high-scoring games for the upcoming weekend.

To the contrary, it could be worth exploring which contest will produce the least amount scoring -- especially with FanDuel's NFL special odds for which Divisional Round game will have the lowest score. Considering that it is now mid-January, it would be wise to dive deeply into looming weather forecasts.

Divisional Round Betting

Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens (+175)

Relying on standard logic, the game with the lowest total will have the shortest odds in this market. For this weekend, that honor is bestowed upon the Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens. At M&T Bank Stadium, FanDuel Sportsbook yields a set total of 43.5 points. As noted in the introduction, this is the only contest through Saturday and Sunday that reflects a total less than 45.0 points.

At the time of authorship, Baltimore is experiencing flurries of snow. Still, this contest will kick off the Divisional Round on Saturday when frigid temperatures are forecasted (below 20 degrees at game time) but no precipitation. Conditions such as that can turn the football into a stone.

When sifting through numberFire's NFL game projections, the Houston-Baltimore clash shows a 26.38-21.38 projected score in favor of the home team. That presents a sum of 47.76 points, which is also the lowest of the slate -- but not by much.

Undoubtedly, there are myriad dynamic offensive players in this bid, such as Lamar Jackson (likely the league MVP), C.J. Stroud (likely the OROY), Nico Collins, Zay Flowers, Odell Beckham, Devin Singletary and others. However, with icy field conditions, some of that explosiveness may be hampered.

As a final note, let us not forget that Baltimore was the stingiest defense in the NFL this past year, allowing only 16.5 PPG; linebackers Roquan Smith and Patrick Queen set the tone, combining for a whopping 291 tackles. In that same scoring department, Houston's D was 11th in the league, allowing only 20.8 PPG to opponents.

Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills (+210)

Showing greater than two-to-one odds, Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills could actually be a valuable play in this lowest-scoring game market. Yes, it does feel a little strange to say that for a contest that features two rocket-armed quarterbacks in Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen.

As our other AFC clash, this game will be the final contest of the Divisional Round (kicking off Sunday at 6:30 p.m. ET). On Friday, the Bills reflect as a 2.5-point favorite in what is Mahomes' first playoff game on the road. FanDuel Sportsbook has the total set at 45.5 points for this meeting in Western New York.

Considering this bid will also be played outdoors, Sunday's forecast in Orchard Park at game time is just above 20 degrees. Since this contest will be played at night, that means conditions will only get colder as the game gets later.

For both sides here, this will be the second consecutive weekend wherein they attempt to stave off freezing conditions. In the Wild Card Round, Buffalo managed 31 points in the snow while Kansas City produced 26 points at a frosty Arrowhead Stadium.

The Bills and Chiefs are each in a good groove right now, but we still cannot ignore that KC led all teams through the regular season with 44 dropped passes. Considering Mahomes' attempted 597 passes this past year, that leaves the Chiefs with a 7.37% drop rate, which is something that cannot happen in the postseason.

numberFire's model shows an estimated score of 26.7-21.68 in favor of Bills Mafia, who have been looking for a bit of postseason revenge against Chiefs Kingdom for a few years now. In terms of the total, that projection gives us a sum of 48.38. (compare that to the other AFC game's projection of 47.76 points).

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions (+360)

Flipping over to the NFC, here is the contest that I would likely stay away from for FanDuel Sportsbook's lowest-scoring market. Come Sunday afternoon (3 p.m. ET), the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will line up with the Detroit Lions in Motor City.

Off the bat, this game presents one glaring advantage for the offenses -- Ford Field is an indoor venue. I've never been to Michigan, but I imagine the weather is fierce this time of year. Still, any inclement conditions outside will have no factor. Simply, this could be our only dry game of the Divisional Round.

When surveying the personnel here, Detroit's offense certainly has firepower. Veteran quarterback Jared Goff finished the recent campaign as the NFL's third-leading passer while his favorite target -- Amon-Ra St. Brown -- was the league's third-leading receiver. From there, fellow Lions skill-players Jahmyr Gibbs, Sam LaPorta and David Montgomery all have a propensity for scoring. Along with St. Brown, that bunch combined for 43 all-purpose touchdowns in 2023.

Across the field, Baker Mayfield and Tampa Bay's offense are coming off one of their top performances of the season; the former Heisman winner dismantled the Philadelphia Eagles last week, tossing three scores in a 32-9 rout. The Bucs will be looking to channel that same energy on the road -- look out for future Hall-of-Fame receiver Mike Evans running the nine-route this weekend.

At FanDuel Sportsbook, the total for this playoff clash in the 313 is set at 48.5 points (-118/-104). Over the entire slate, that is the second-highest number on the board. Again, since this is the only weather-controlled game, so I would make my play in this market on any other contest before the bid in the D.

Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers (+440)

Headed out to Northern California, the Green Bay Packers will enter as a substantial road underdog for the second-straight week. Of course, awaiting at Levi's Stadium will be the almighty San Francisco 49ers -- a team that was ranked third in both offensive (28.9 PPG) and defensive scoring (17.5 PPG against).

At +440 odds, this meeting of old NFC rivals serves as the long shot to be the lowest-scoring Divisional Round game.

Guided by the hyper-efficient play of quarterback Brock Purdy (league-best 72.7 QBR), the 49ers have an all-star cast on offense; surely, you have head of guys like Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle, Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk. San Francisco's defense can be quite suffocating. Led by unanimous All-Pro Fred Warner, numberFire's power rankings have the Niners pegged as the eighth-best defensive unit in football.

On the other side, Green Bay signal-caller Jordan Love is playing the best ball of his short career -- the Utah State alum has notched a 21-1 TD-INT ratio over his past eight starts.

However, there is a caveat with this contest in the Bay Area. As of Friday, Saturday evening's game is forecasted to be soggy. There is a chance the rain in Santa Clara ceases around game time (8:15 a.m. ET), but in all likelihood, the playing surface will be wet for at least some portion of the action.

With this game sporting this week's highest total of 50.5 points (-110/-110), it makes sense that Packers-49ers carries the longest odds to be the lowest-scoring game. Still, it could be worth a dart to bank on the wind and rain here.

Yes, I am saying there is an outside chance that GB-SF results in the lowest-scoring affair this weekend. As mentioned, you'd be wise to frequently monitor the weather report for Silicon Valley.

If you're betting on any of Saturday, January 20th's NFL playoff action, you can take advantage of FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL Playoffs No-Sweat Same Game Parlay. Check the promotions page for more information.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.