NCAAB

NCAA Tournament Betting: Will Nebraska Sneak by Texas A&M?

Riley Thomas
Riley Thomas_riley8
NCAA Tournament Betting: Will Nebraska Sneak by Texas A&M?

Very few things on the sports calendar can match the excitement and unpredictability of the NCAA Tournament. So why not add betting to the mix via the college basketball odds at FanDuel Sportsbook?

The 2024 edition of the big dance has arrived, and here at FanDuel Research, we'll have you covered with a betting guide for each game.

Texas A&M against Nebraska is one of two 8-9 seed matchups with a point spread of 1.5. This will certainly close as one of the tightest spreads for Friday's first-round games. The Aggies earned an at-large bid after taking out Kentucky in the SEC Tournament. The Cornhuskers have come into the Big Dance hot, winning seven of their last nine games. Which conference will have the last laugh? The SEC or the Big Ten?

All college basketball odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook, and lines may change after this article is published.

NCAA Tournament Betting Picks

Texas A&M vs. Nebraska Betting Odds

Date and Time: Friday, March 22nd, 6:50 p.m. ET

Spread: Nebraska -1.5 (-108)

Total: 146.5

Moneyline:

  • Nebraska: -118
  • Texas A&M: -102

Texas A&M vs. Nebraska Statistical Breakdown

Advanced stats from KenPom, Bart Torvik and numberFire.

Texas A&M

  • numberFire Ranking: 49th
  • Bart Torvik Ranking: 43rd
  • KenPom Ranking: 43rd
    • Adjusted Defensive Efficiency Ranking: 56th
    • Adjusted Offensive Efficiency Ranking: 33rd
    • Adjusted Tempo Ranking: 270th

Nebraska

  • numberFire Ranking: 28th
  • Bart Torvik Ranking: 20th
  • KenPom Ranking: 26th
    • Adjusted Defensive Efficiency Ranking: 31st
    • Adjusted Offensive Efficiency Ranking: 38th
    • Adjusted Tempo Ranking: 104th

Texas A&M vs. Nebraska Best Bet

Nebraska -1.5 (-108)

The metrics suggest that this could be a rather easy pick. Nebraska is 20th in Bart Torvik's rankings while Texas A&M is 43rd. This is a huge difference, especially for an 8 vs. 9 seed matchup. However, the Aggies have gotten hot at the right time, making this more challenging.

It was late February, and A&M lost their fifth straight game. Their NCAA Tournament hopes looked dire with a 13-12 record. How did the Aggies respond? Texas A&M finished the regular season on a three-game winning streak and won two games in the SEC Tournament. This team no longer looks like a slouch thanks to their 5-1 record over the last six contests.

As previously mentioned, the Cornhuskers have been hot too. Which side will fold in the first round of play?

Even with A&M rolling, I still like Nebraska in this matchup. The -108 odds to cover the spread only makes the pick more enticing. I believe the Cornhuskers' offense -- which ranks in the 80th percentile of points per game (PPG) -- could be a problem for the Aggies.

Texas A&M weakness has been defense, per KenPom's efficiency ratings. This certainly looks to be the case with opponents totaling 91.0 PPG over the Aggies' past two contests. Opponents also shot a combined 47.2% from three-point land over the last two games. This is the area where we should really focus.

A&M ranks in the bottom 5% in three-point shots allowed per game. This is one of Nebraska's strengths, for they are in the 92nd percentile of three-point attempts per contest. The Cornhuskers are also in the 92nd percentile with 44.5% of their shots taking place from beyond the arc.

Ultimately, I'm very concerned with Texas A&M's ability to slow Nebraska's offense. The Cornhuskers could outscore the Aggies, leading to a cover.

Texas A&M vs. Nebraska Prop Bet

Brice Williams To Make 2+ Threes (+116)

Keisei Tominaga (14.9 PPG) garners most of the attention for Nebraska. In fact, the Cornhuskers' leading scorer has become a bit of a sensation across college basketball in the last month. Tominaga earned Second Team All-Big Ten honors and has logged 23.7 PPG over his last three outings.

Nebraska's lineup features a lot more than just one talented scorer, though. Four double-digit scorers lead the way, and Brice Williams (13.1 PPG) is one player who should be circled for this first-round game.

Williams has erupted like a match to oil, totaling 23.0 PPG over the last two games. While Tominaga has taken the most three-point looks on the team, Williams has been more efficient from deep at 39.2%. He's averaged only 3.8 three-point shots per game this season, which makes reaching multiple made three-pointers quite difficult. However, his volume has increased in recent games.

The junior wing has averaged 4.1 shots over his last seven games. Williams has increased his shooting even more over the last two, shooting a combined 6 of 11 (54.5%) from deep.

I also love Williams' matchup against Texas A&M. Standing at 6'7", he should have a size advantage against Tyrece Radford (6'3") or Manny Obaseki (6'4"). According to EvanMiya's Defensive Bayesian Performance Rating (DBPR), Radford (0.83) and Obaseki (-0.07) are underwhelming defenders. I'm looking for Williams to stay hot on Friday, converting at least two three-pointers.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.