NCAAB

NCAA Tournament Betting: Nevada vs. Dayton Picks, Prop Bets and Odds

Annie Nader
Annie Nader@ANader33
NCAA Tournament Betting: Nevada vs. Dayton Picks, Prop Bets and Odds

Very few things on the sports calendar can match the excitement and unpredictability of the NCAA Tournament. So why not add betting to the mix via the college basketball odds at FanDuel Sportsbook?

The 2024 edition of the big dance has arrived, and here at FanDuel Research, we'll have you covered with a betting guide for each game.

All college basketball odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook, and lines may change after this article is published.

NCAA Tournament Betting Picks

Nevada vs. Dayton Betting Odds

Date and Time: Thursday, March 21st at 4:30 p.m. ET

Spread: Nevada -1.5 (-110)

Total: 136.5

Moneyline:

  • Dayton: -102
  • Nevada: -118

Nevada vs. Dayton Statistical Breakdown

Advanced stats from KenPom, Bart Torvik and numberFire.

Nevada Wolf Pack

  • numberFire Ranking: 39th
  • Bart Torvik Ranking: 37th
  • KenPom Ranking: 36th
    • Adjusted Defensive Efficiency Ranking: 36th
    • Adjusted Offensive Efficiency Ranking: 40th
    • Adjusted Tempo Ranking: 233rd

Dayton Flyers

  • numberFire Ranking: 34th
  • Bart Torvik Ranking: 40th
  • KenPom Ranking: 32nd
    • Adjusted Defensive Efficiency Ranking: 87th
    • Adjusted Offensive Efficiency Ranking: 18th
    • Adjusted Tempo Ranking: 337th

Nevada vs. Dayton Best Bet

Dayton +1.5 (-110)

The No. 10 seed Nevada Wolf Pack are favored over the No. 7 seed Dayton Flyers for the first round of the NCAA Tournament.

Siding with a lower-seeded team that also happens to be favored is a great pastime of bracket partakers. At least that's what the public has been up to so far -- Dayton has just a 44.7% pick rate (per Yahoo) despite their moneyline odds (-102) implying a 50.5% win probability.

Seeding aside, it wouldn't be fair to count out the Flyers.

Nevada and Dayton are pretty neck-and-neck in whichever model you look at. numberFire and Bart Torvik have Dayton ranked five and four spots ahead of Nevada, respectively. KenPom, meanwhile, has the Wolf Pack sitting three spots ahead of Dayton.

But in tournament-style play, it'd be hard for me to fade the firepower offense that is the Dayton Flyers.

Dayton owns the 29th-highest three-point rate and shoots the three-ball at the third-best clip in college basketball.

And there's not just one Flyer who can get it done from downtown. You can ask any of Koby Brea (49.2% 3P%), Nate Santos (42.7% 3P%), or Kobe Elvis (37.5% 3P%) to get off a good look.

Luckily for Dayton fans, Nevada is home to one of the worst three-point defenses in the tournament, ranking 296th in three-point rate allowed.

Dayton allows a pretty high three-point rate (284th), too. But the Wolf Pack aren't particularly insistent on shooting threes, ranking 274th in three-point rate.

I've yet to even mention the star of this game, DaRon Holmes II. Holmes averages 20.4 points and 8.4 rebounds per game. He manages to leverage his size while also shooting the ball at a solid 54.5% clip.

Nevada's 36th-ranked defense will look to shut Holmes down, but when you surround Dayton's star with awesome three-point shooters such as Brea and Santos, it's easy to imagine the Flyers finding offensive success.

The Wolf Pack -- led by Jarod Lucas, Kenyan Blackshear, and Nick Davidson -- is a team that knows how to draw fouls. They come in with the third-best free-throw rate in the country.

But Dayton, a program that plays at one of the slowest tempos, rarely grants their opponents free points, letting up the third-lowest free-throw rate.

It's fun to side with the lower seed, especially when they are favored, and Nevada has proved they are a legitimate contender, but Holmes and company look primed to come out firing on all cylinders.

Nevada vs. Dayton Prop Bet

Nate Santos 2+ Made Threes (-102)

There are a lot of three-point shooters to choose from on Dayton, but ultimately, I think backing Nate Santos to drain a pair is the best move.

As mentioned, Nevada sacrifices a ton of their points via threes, ranking 296th in three-point rate allowed.

We know Dayton, a top 3 three-point shooting team, will do everything in their power to take advantage of this, regardless of the friendly matchup.

I imagine DaRon Holmes will draw particularly strong defensive attention while Koby Brea, who leads the country with a 49.2% three-point percentage, is also a must-stop player.

This could leave Santos with an advantageous matchup, and it doesn't hurt that he is also an awesome shooter in his own right.

Santos shoots the three-ball at a 42.7% clip and has nailed at least two threes in four straight games. Look for him to continue this streak on Thursday.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.