NBA Betting Picks, Player Props, and DFS Plays for Friday 11/10/23

The 82-game NBA regular season offers us a wide variety of betting options, including point spreads, moneylines, and totals. The Association features 1,230 regular season games, which can make sifting through the odds an overwhelming task.

However, various advanced statistics can help narrow the choices. numberFire's NBA power rankings and daily projections paired with advanced stats from the NBA can help give the inside track to winning big.

While utilizing some of the mentioned tools, which NBA odds from FanDuel Sportsbook look like the best bets today?

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NBA Best Bets

Brooklyn Nets at Boston Celtics

Brooklyn Nets +11.5 (-110)

The Boston Celtics are primed to win this game. They've lost two straight (both to teams with winning records) after coming out strong with five wins to start the season. Tonight, they will face a Brooklyn Nets team that they already beat on the road and now will get a shot at them on their home court.

Although the 83.3% win probability (via numberFire) handed to Boston seems fair, I like Brooklyn's chances to cover the spread.

Only two of the Celtics' seven games this season have been decided by more than 10 points. Like most teams, they hammered the Washington Wizards. They also beat the Indiana Pacers by a whopping 41 points, which may seem scary as this spread is concerned, but they did shoot 57.1% from behind the arc, and I can't imagine this happening again tonight.

The Nets, meanwhile, have yet to play in a game that was decided by more than 10 points. Their average margin of loss stands at an honorable five points, and all four of their losses have been against good teams (the Dallas Mavericks, Milwaukee Bucks, Cleveland Cavaliers, and Celtics).

Last week's Celtics-Nets matchup resulted in a 124-114 Boston victory. Perhaps what kept this game within ten is Boston's abysmal bench unit.

When players like Oshae Brissett or Payton Pritchard are on the floor for the Celtics, the team crumbles. All Boston starters possess a 7.4 or higher plus/minus (four out of five are 9.0 or higher) whereas no bench player has a plus/minus above 4.4. Though the team does their best to keep their studs on the floor for as long as possible, even a lick of foul trouble could be what keeps this game close.

Further, the Nets have been making a killing on offense this season. They have the tenth-best offensive rating and tout a 55.6% effective field goal percentage (tied for seventh). Brooklyn should force Boston to show up on defense, which could result in some heftier bench rotations. I think the Nets are gritty enough to continue to keep games somewhat close.

Los Angeles Clippers at Dallas Mavericks

Dallas Mavericks -1.0 (-112)

The Los Angeles Clippers currently hold the fifth-shortest odds to win the 2023-2024 NBA championship, and I'm not quite sure why.

We are very early into the season, but a team with a 3-4 record, 4th-highest turnover rate, and 14th-ranked offensive rating probably shouldn't be higher in the championship discussions than the likes of the Philadelphia 76ers (6-1) or the Golden State Warriors (6-3). I think the market is overvaluing this Clippers team -- at least as we know them now.

The Dallas Mavericks, on the other hand, come into the night fairly undervalued by the market. They tout a 6-2 record, and one loss was against the Denver Nuggets, a team we could reasonably argue is the best in basketball. The Kyrie Irving of it all will never not be a tad seedy, and perhaps they are overperforming this season, but for now, I think they are capable of winning this game against the Clippers.

Dallas has the third-best offensive rating in the league. They fare much more poorly on the defensive side of things, but the Clippers are still figuring out their offense since acquiring James Harden.

Los Angeles has dropped three straight games and scored an average of 95 points since Harden joined the team. I'm sure they will figure it out -- Paul George and Kawhi Leonard will always be major threats -- but the early trials and tribulations of their new rotation should afford the Mavs some leeway on defense.

For as much as the Clippers turn the ball over, they are also forcing turnovers at a high rate (third-highest). However, Dallas has been anything but sloppy this season, turning the ball over at the fifth-lowest rate.

Foul trouble could turn things on its head for the Clippers. No team in the league draws more fouls than the Mavericks. If Dallas can force either Leonard or George to grab some bench time due to foul trouble, I really like their chances to win this one. The aforementioned studs boast positive 10.4 and 10.1 plus/minus ratios. Russell Westbrook and Ivica Zubac also boast positive, albeit lesser, plus/minus ratios, but the fun stops there.

Bench players such as Norman Powell, P.J. Tucker, and Mason Plumlee all have -2.3 or worse plus/minus ratios. And the James Harden experiment? Well, it's not been great, at least so far. The Clippers have a mind-numbing -16.5 plus-minus with Harden on the court through two games.

It's a long season, and adjustments will be made to ensure the great assets on the Clippers are being used in the correct rotations, but until then, I like the Mavericks' chances to continue their early-season success.

NBA Prop Bets

Kelly Oubre Jr. Over 13.5 Points (-111)

I feel confident saying that tonight's points prop for Kelly Oubre is set too low.

Two games ago, Oubre scored just three points off a meager five field-goal attempts. Not great. But, even still, he is averaging 17.4 points per game this season, and if we dig into his numbers, we may be able to classify this low-point performance as a major outlier.

Not only has Oubre cleared this prop in five out of seven games this season, but he also averaged 20.3 points per game last season. Not once did he score single-digit points last season in games where he played at least 24 minutes, and he is averaging 29.4 minutes per game this season.

Tonight, he will face a Detroit Pistons team that allows the 12th-most points to guards per 36 minutes. The Pistons also allow more free-throw attempts than any other team in the league. Oubre shoots 80.0% from the foul line (second-highest on the 76ers) and draws the fourth-most fouls, so he could see some decent point opportunities at the line.

The Pistons allow the second-most points off turnovers per game, and Oubre scores 16.4% of his points off of turnovers, meaning we could see some extra opportunities there, as well.

Last season, Oubre averaged 24.3 points in three games against Detroit, clearing this prop handedly each time with 18, 27, and 28-point performances.

Derrick White Over 12.5 Points (-120)

The market refuses to give Derrick White respect, so I'm going to continue to target White's points prop until he proves us otherwise.

White is averaging 16.4 points per game this season. He has cleared this prop in three out of four games where he played at least 25 minutes. White is averaging 31.2 minutes per game, so I'm removing a blowout-based minute restrictions game.

Nobody in the league has a higher plus/minus than White, and it's become quite evident that Boston's success as a team correlates with White not only being on the court but also playing a major role on offense.

The Nets give up the 11th-most points to guards per 36 minutes and the 6th-most 3PA to guards in this split. White scores 51.2% of his points from downtown, so I'd look for him to parse together some three-balls to clear this prop.

White scored 16 points against Brooklyn last season in the one post-Durant/Irving Nets-Celtics matchup, and I expect more of the same from him tonight.

NBA DFS Picks

Guards

LaMelo Ball ($9,100) -- In terms of guard options not named Luka Doncic, I think LaMelo Ball is the best play on the slate tonight -- and you can roster him for a much better deal than Doncic ($12,000). Ball's fantasy ceiling sits at a towering 64.5 points while he's averaging 40.21 FP this season. He was on a minute restriction to start the season, but his 37.5 minutes per game average over his last two proves that he is ready to compete as a top fantasy play. I'd roster him while his salary is still four digits.

Jalen Green ($6,500) -- Jalen Green showed up big in his last game, grabbing 42.9 FP. Tonight he'll see a great matchup against the New Orleans Pelicans, who allow the third-most FanDuel points to his position. Green sits a tad below the average salary afforded for each player, so he should be a decent option to round out a solid lineup.

Wings

Kevin Durant ($10,200) -- Kevin Durant went off for 53.2 FP against the Los Angeles Lakers earlier this season, and with Devin Booker out, we should expect him to continue his ultra-high usage. The Lakers afford Durant's position more fantasy points than any other team, so KD's floor doesn't get much safer.

Kyle Kuzma ($7,800) -- The Wizards-Hornets matchup provides us with the highest game total of the night (240.0), and Kyle Kuzma is my pick for the most under-salaried player on today's slate. Kuzma hammered 47.8 FP in a game against Charlotte earlier this week. If there's a game to stack tonight, it's probably this one.

Bigs

Domantas Sabonis ($9,900) -- Domantas Sabonis has a high ceiling and a great matchup on the docket opposite the Oklahoma City Thunder. The Thunder sacrifice the fifth-most FanDuel points to bigs, and a fairly high game total (231.0) should make Sabonis one of the best plays on the board tonight.

Keita Bates-Diop ($4,300) -- We need a spot to save some salary, and Keita Bates-Diop could be a great option to do just that. The Suns are short-staffed with Booker out and Bradley Beal restricted, and Josh Okogie has recently been replaced by Bates-Diop in the Phoenix starting lineup. Bates-Diop recorded 29.5 FP in his most recent game and is a great shot-blocking candidate. His total output can be a bit shaky, but he could be worth a play if it helps you get to the slate's top plays.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.