NBA Betting Picks for Wednesday 1/3/24: Will the Thunder Strike Down the Hawks?

The 82-game NBA regular season offers us a wide variety of betting options, including point spreads, moneylines, and totals. The Association features 1,230 regular season games, which can make sifting through the odds an overwhelming task.

However, various advanced statistics can help narrow the choices. numberFire's NBA power rankings and daily projections paired with advanced stats from the NBA can help give the inside track to winning big.

While utilizing some of the mentioned tools, which NBA odds from FanDuel Sportsbook look like the best bets today?

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NBA Best Bets

Oklahoma City Thunder at Atlanta Hawks

Thunder -1 (-105)
Over 248 (-110)

The Oklahoma City Thunder opened the new year with a bang, taking down the Boston Celtics, who have the NBA's best record at 26-7. The Thunder have won five consecutive games while going 5-0 against the spread (ATS), and they are only one game behind the Minnesota Timberwolves for the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference.

OKC is favored by only one point tonight against the Atlanta Hawks, who has the worst ATS record in the East at 7-24. Yes, it's even worse than the Detroit Pistons (12-21 ATS). Being behind Detroit in any category is certainly a concern.

I have little hesitation with this pick. The Thunder covering a one-point spread against the Hawks feels like a layup. But as most of us know, nothing is a lock in betting. Let's find some support for Oklahoma City producing on the road.

The clear advantage is the Thunder's offense against the Hawks' defense; OKC boasts the fifth-best offensive rating while Atlanta has the fourth-worst defensive rating. The Thunder have the third-best effective field goal percentage (eFG%), and opponents hold a 57.4 eFG% against Atlanta (second-highest).

The Hawks' paint defense could be in store for a long night, as they give up the fourth-most points in the paint per contest and the second-worst two-point shooting percentage. This is yet another category that plays right into Oklahoma City's hands, for they total the seventh-most points in the paint per game and have the fifth-best two-point shooting percentage.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who FanDuel's NBA MVP odds have as the third choice to win the award (+400), and Chet Holmgren, the leader for Rookie of the Year (-250), could feast in the paint. SGA and Holmgren both take over 47.0% of their shots within 10 feet of the basket while shooting better than 64.0%; this could be quite useful for FanDuel's 25% Profit Boost on one NBA live bet.

Atlanta's offense has been a beast with the sixth-best rating while totaling the third-most points per game (PPG). The Thunder have the league's third-best defensive rating, but their perimeter defense could be a problem. They give up the second-most three-point shots per game, and the Hawks love to launch it from deep with the sixth-most three-point attempts per contest. Their three-point volume has even increased over the last five games with 43.4 shots per game (compared to the season average of 38.7).

Fortunately for OKC, Atlanta has not been efficient from deep over their previous five contests, converting only 33.2% of their shots from beyond the arc. Still, the over could be a wise pick with the Hawks getting good looks from three.

The Thunder could be looking to slow the pace of the game, as Atlanta has the fifth-quickest pace in the Association while averaging the most field goals attempted per game. To control the pace, Oklahoma City will need to win the possession battle. Look no further than the team's strong turnover numbers; the Thunder average the fourth-fewest turnovers per game while forcing the most turnovers per contest. The Hawks rank among the bottom half of turnovers per game.

With OKC's offense getting a favorable matchup and the potential advantage in the possession battle, they could add to their five-game hot streak.

Chicago Bulls at New York Knicks

Under 220.5 (-110)

The Chicago Bulls (14th-best defensive rating) and the New York Knicks (11th-worst defensive rating) do not have elite defenses by any means, yet the matchup for tonight has a total of only 220.5. Why is the number so small? Each team's slow pace of play certainly plays a big role in this number.

Chicago has the slowest pace in the NBA while New York has the sixth-slowest tempo. The Knicks also have the tendency of taking shots late in the shot clock, as they average the third-most field goals attempted with 4-7 seconds on the shot clock and the third-most shots with 0-4 seconds on the ticker. Pair the Bulls' slow pace with New York taking possessions deep into the shot clock, and that could equal a low-scoring game.

Even with the small total, I still like the under. The total has gone under in six straight Chicago games. The offense's struggles at 105.5 PPG over the last six contests also helps the under.

While the Knicks lack an exceptional defense, they match up quite well with the Bulls. New York gives up the 10th-most three-point shots per game, but Chicago is dreadful from three, as they have the eighth-worst three-point percentage (35.4%). This mark is plummeting after the Bulls have shot 24.4% from deep over the last six games. Chicago is relying on two-point looks, and the Knicks allow the eighth-fewest points in the paint per game.

The Bulls could also be without nearly their entire starting lineup. Zach LaVine (21.0 PPG) and Nikola Vucevic (16.7 PPG) are expected to be absent, and Coby White (17.6 PPG) and Patrick Williams (10.2 PPG) are questionable. If these four players are out, Chicago would be missing four of their top five scorers. Plus, the Knicks have an excellent defender in OG Anunoby (114.5 defensive rating) that can help slow the Bulls' leading scorer DeMar DeRozan (22.2 PPG).

Scoring struggles from the Bulls wouldn't be a surprise; if anything, it should be expected at this point. How can Chicago limit New York's offense, though?

The Bulls have the top paint defense in the NBA while giving up the fewest field goal attempts per contest. Taking away easy looks from the Knicks would certainly help, and this matchup seems poised to be a slow-paced game.

Ultimately, each squad's slow tempo and Chicago's stumbling offense could lead to the under.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.