NBA Betting Picks for Tuesday 3/26/24: Backing a Home Underdog Could Yield Success

Riley Thomas
Riley Thomas_riley8
NBA Betting Picks for Tuesday 3/26/24: Backing a Home Underdog Could Yield Success

The 82-game NBA regular season offers us a wide variety of betting options, including point spreads, moneylines, and totals. The Association features 1,230 regular season games, which can make sifting through the odds an overwhelming task.

However, various advanced statistics can help narrow the choices. numberFire's NBA power rankings and daily projections paired with advanced stats from the NBA can help give the inside track to winning big.

While utilizing some of the mentioned tools, which NBA odds from FanDuel Sportsbook look like the best bets today?

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NBA Best Bets

Golden State Warriors at Miami Heat

Heat Moneyline (+110)

I usually jump at the opportunity to take a home underdog, especially when the point spread is tight. The Golden State Warriors against the Miami Heat fits this description to a tee as the visiting Warriors are favored by 1.5 points.

Surely, Golden State is blazing hot coming into this game, right? Nope, the Warriors are 4-6 outright and against the spread (ATS) over their previous 10 games. So, why is Golden State (36-33) a favorite over Miami (39-32)?

Injuries could be part of the answer. The Heat will not have Tyler Herro, Duncan Robinson, and Jaime Jaquez Jr. is questionable with an ankle injury. If Jaquez does not go, Miami would be without three of their top six leading scorers. However, they would still have three of their top four scorers: Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, and Terry Rozier.

Herro and Robinson lead the team in three-point shots per game. Both players have been out over the last three games. This leads you to believe that the three-point attack has been far less prominent, but that has not been the case as the Heat have averaged 40.3 three-point attempts per contest during the span. This is significantly higher than their season average of 33.3 shots each game (11th-fewest). I expect this volume to continue, for the Warriors give up the fifth-most three-point attempts per contest.

Miami's biggest concern could be wrangling Golden State's three-point shooting; the Warriors attempt the second-most shots from beyond the arc while the Heat surrender the seventh-most attempts per contest. Miami at least limits opposing teams' efficiency with the 12th-best mark in allowed three-point percentage.

The turnover battle could be another area to watch. This could give the leg up to the Heat as they average the sixth-fewest turnovers per game while the Warriors surrender the eighth-most turnovers each contest.

Miami is 4-2 over their past six games. I believe they have enough to come out with the victory as underdogs.

Oklahoma City Thunder at New Orleans Pelicans

Under 223 (-110)

The under has been absolutely rolling for the Oklahoma City Thunder and the New Orleans Pelicans. It's gone 7-3 over each team's last 10 games.

The Pelicans have logged only 108.8 points per game (PPG) over their last four games, and Brandon Ingram (20.9 PPG) is expected to be out for his third straight game. The Thunder have the league's fifth-best defensive rating and give up the seventh-fewest points in the paint per game. New Orleans tends to lean on attacking the rim with the 10th-most points in the paint.

Considering their recent production and OKC's defense, I'm not too worried about the Pelicans scoring in bunches. This also makes the under for New Orleans' 111.5-point team total (-114) a favorable bet. The Thunder, on the other hand, are averaging 115.8 PPG over their past five contests. In their most recent game, Oklahoma City mustered only 93 points, which is an outlier from their recent production; they averaged 121.5 PPG in the four games prior.

The Thunder have the fifth-best offensive rating in the Association. Slowing this attack will still be a challenge for New Orleans.

Similar to the Pelicans, OKC leans on attacking the paint with the seventh-most points per game. This is New Orleans' greatest strength on defense, giving up the fifth-fewest points in the paint. The Pels have only allowed 41.6 points in the paint per game over the last five contests (season average is 46.4).

The exceptional interior defense could allow New Orleans to keep the Thunder's offense somewhat under wraps, leading to an under.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.