NBA Betting Picks for Tuesday 3/19/24: Will the Spurs Strike ATS Against the Mavericks?

Riley Thomas
Riley Thomas_riley8

The 82-game NBA regular season offers us a wide variety of betting options, including point spreads, moneylines, and totals. The Association features 1,230 regular season games, which can make sifting through the odds an overwhelming task.

However, various advanced statistics can help narrow the choices. numberFire's NBA power rankings and daily projections paired with advanced stats from the NBA can help give the inside track to winning big.

While utilizing some of the mentioned tools, which NBA odds from FanDuel Sportsbook look like the best bets today?

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NBA Best Bets

Charlotte Hornets at Orlando Magic

Over 202.5 (-110)

The Charlotte Hornets have the second-worst offensive rating in the league, and the Orlando Magic tout the fourth-best defensive rating while playing at the fifth-slowest pace. The under is 7-3 over Charlotte's past 10 games and 8-2 in Orlando's last 10.

The extremely small 202.5 total makes sense, but this feels too low for even these two teams. Mostly due to the alarming number, I'm backing the over. The stats also provide some support for the over.

I'm mostly leaning on the Magic's offense to have a solid outing. The unit has averaged 112.7 points per game (PPG) over the last three games. Most of Orlando's success usually comes from around the rim with the ninth-most points in the paint each contest. Additionally, about 63.5% of the Magic's shots are two-pointers (sixth-highest).

Charlotte could simply lack the interior defense to slow this attack. The Hornets give up the eighth-most points in the paint and have the third-worst mark in opponent two-point percentage. This only becomes even more susceptible with Mark Williams out of the lineup; he ranks second on the squad with 1.1 blocks per game.

numberFire's daily game projections also have a five-out-of-five star confidence level for the over.

Dallas Mavericks at San Antonio Spurs

Spurs +9 (-108)

The Dallas Mavericks are getting hot at the right time as they are 5-1 over the last six games while covering six consecutive games against the spread (ATS). While I believe Dallas is poised for another win tonight, they could fail to cover.

On the surface, this could seem quite questionable considering the San Antonio Spurs' 15-53 record. However, backing San Antonio has yielded plenty of success in their last 10 games (7-3 ATS). Here's why the Spurs could come up with another cover.

The Mavericks still lack a sound defense, ranking 21st in defensive rating while allowing 117.5 PPG (8th-most). The Spurs have the fourth-worst offensive rating, which certainly causes concern. But they do a pretty good job of attacking the rim with the 11th-most points in the paint (51.4). This production has continued over the previous three contests at 52.0 points in the paint per game.

This goes directly against one of Dallas' weaknesses. The interior defense is like Swiss cheese at times, surrendering the 9th-most points in the paint paired with the 10th-worst mark in opponent two-point percentage.

I like San Antonio to stay hot ATS thanks to their ability to attack the painted area.

Denver Nuggets at Minnesota Timberwolves

Under 213.5 (-110)

Two slow-paced teams led by exceptional defenses are meeting on Tuesday. This points to one clear pick: the under. Let's take a deeper dive into the Denver Nuggets against the Minnesota Timberwolves.

Denver, who has the 10th-best defensive rating, has continued to defend at a high level, holding opponents to only 100.3 PPG with a 43.3% field goal percentage (FG%) over the previous three contests.

We also know what we are getting with the Timberwolves. Minnesota has held the league's top defensive rating for most of the season. You name it, they probably excel in the category. The Wolves are like an iron curtain in the paint (second-fewest points allowed) and are airtight on the perimeter (fourth-fewest three-point shots allowed).

Injuries could point to fewer points, as well. Three of Minnesota's top four scorers could be absent. Karl-Anthony Towns (22.1 PPG) is out for at least four weeks with a knee injury. Rudy Gobert (13.7 PPG) and Naz Reid (12.9 PPG) are also dealing with day-to-day injuries.

This is putting a huge scoring load on Anthony Edwards (team-high 32.9% usage rate). Edwards has totaled 33.3 PPG over his last three games, and his usage rate jumps to 35.9% when Towns isn't on the floor.

Fortunately, the Nuggets have some exceptional perimeter defenses -- such as Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (112.6 defensive rating) -- who could help slow Edwards.

Both teams are also among the seven slowest-paced squads in the Association. Too much is pointing to the under. I'm expecting a low-scoring contest for Nuggets-Timberwolves.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.